Thursday, August 9, 2012

Triangle, Long Term Count

The triangle that formed yesterday expanded into a bigger triangle and that increased the odds of a bullish wave coming next. So I removed the W5 label and I'll assume this is a W4 of W5 which should see the ending around 1415-1422. If it break through those resistance levels then good, if not then the real test is the correction to the trend average.

I also had the chance to chart the long term count for the market and here is the most bullish option. The market is obviously in a broadening formation pattern and the interesting thing about this particular set up is that it has a 50/50 chance of breaking out. Gold was in this pattern few months ago before it exploded but obviously, this is just for entertainment purposes because I would never trade or invest based on a long term wave count. But as long as the trends remain up, this is a chart to consider as a guide. Also, after 12 years of a sideways correction which has left a clear ABC move, I wouldn't be surprised to see the resumption of a strong bull market. And I'll post the bearish long term alternatives when the trends turn south. But for now, this is the one to watch. I know the most popular wave counts are the bearish ones but they all have proven disastrous to many traders so we'll try making money here for a change :)

Long Term Portfolio: 100% Long
Short Term Trading Strategy: Shorting intraday extremes, closing same day

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