Monday, October 21, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 21






















The market closed above the 3000 level for the first time in a month and is well positioned to challenge all-time highs. Any favorable news coming from the China trade negotiations will do it but I still don't see any substantial concessions. I don't think the markets actually cares of the substance of this agreement,  as long as there is not "disagreement" it will be good enough.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, October 18, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 18






















The market has struggled in the past couple of sessions to make a higher high and instead retreated to test the rising Trend Average. The pattern continues to be bullish but prices can not continue to pull back and go below 2962 or else the uptrend will be over.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 15






















The market has broke through resistance at 2993 and continues to be well-positioned for a continued rally to new ATH. Maintaining lower lows above 2962 is crucial to maintaining this new uptrend, if prices were to fall below this level the bullish pattern in place will be invalidated.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, October 11, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 11






















Prices managed to recapture the TA and the 50 DMA and this turns the TA back to bullish and eliminate the bearish set up I had been positing. The new pattern points to a possible breakout once 2993 is cleared and we could see an ATH as soon as next week. The rallying excuse is progress with China on a trade deal but I think it remains to be seen how much substance there is to the agreement. I think at this point Trump is desperate to get something going to claim something positive in light of all the negative news surrounding him and the talk about recession. I don't think China will be making any major concessions but we'll see how they will spin it.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 8






















Prices dropped substantially as expected but I think the next session or two will tell us if the nested bearish count is correct. If prices drop strongly and last week's low is taken out then we could see a 10% correction in the next few weeks. I think a mix of China trade news and now Trump's refusal to cooperate has the potential to create chaos in the next few weeks. China's trade delegation is already here and I don't see them giving up any concessions. Maybe some dirt on Biden will help!

Again, thank you very much for helping out with the Boys Scout's fundraiser. I am trying to get my son excited about selling stuff. Not a whole lot of traction there yet but is good to expose kids to money and commerce early on so they can learn to appreciate it.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, October 7, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 7






















Prices tested the Trend Average again today but failed to close above it again. Assuming there isn't any surprise positive news, we should see prices head back down as soon as tomorrow. Whether this pullback will be part of a bearish W3 or a set up for a bottom will depend on how 2855 holds. If last week's low holds then we could see a strong rally back to 3000.

You guys know I don't ask for donations for the blog and I do this strictly as a hobby. But if you are able to donate for a good cause, please go to the link below to contribute to the Boy Scouts of America. It's my son's store :)

https://www.trails-end.com/store/scout

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, October 4, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 4






















The market had a strong close for the week after going to lower lows after the last update and almost testing the 200 DMA at 2841. Despite the rally today, the TA is barely getting tested so the trend remains bearish and we could see prices head back down next week. If prices are able to start closing above the TA to recapture it then that will be a signal 2855 is an important bottom. And again, the whole Trump drama and the weak economic readings are perfect excuses to send prices further down.

You guys know I don't ask for donations for the blog and I do this strictly as a hobby. But if you are able to donate for a good cause, please go to the link below to contribute to the Boy Scouts of America. It's my son's store :) Thank you to those that have made purchases for the Boys Scouts Fundraiser, it is greatly appreciated!

https://www.trails-end.com/store/scout

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 2






















Support at 2948 failed to hold and prices fell into the 2800's as expected. The sell off today has an impulsive look to it so the 200 DMA at 2838 is likely to be tested and should that fail to hold the selling then prices will be likely headed towards a 10% correction. Hard to say if the market is just resetting itself or rolling over for a bear market  but as recession signs continue to show up and the Trump mess gets worse, we could finally get a bear market after all these years waiting!

You guys know I don't ask for donations for the blog and I do this strictly as a hobby. But if you are able to donate for a good cause, please go to the link below to contribute to the Boy Scouts of America. It's my son's store :)

https://www.trails-end.com/store/scout

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, September 30, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 30






















The market bounced back today to test the TA and if prices don't recapture it we should see the market head down again to possibly lower lows. The 50 DMA at 2948 is a must hold level for the bullish side as losing this support would likely send prices in the 2800's. With the Trump mess dominating the news, the excuse is there for the market to go into a bigger correction.

You guys know I don't ask for donations for the blog and I do this strictly as a hobby. But if you are able to donate for a good cause, please go to the link below to contribute to the Boy Scouts of America. It's my son's store :)

https://www.trails-end.com/store/scout

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, September 27, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 27






















You guys know I don't ask for donations for the blog and I do this strictly as a hobby. But if you are able to donate for a good cause, please go to the link below to contribute to the Boy Scouts of America. It's my son's store :)

https://www.trails-end.com/store/scout/TQGE3456


The market made a lower low today testing its 50 DMA at 2948 before bouncing back a bit towards the end of the session. Right now, the 50 DMA is an important level everyone is watching. If we see further selling that closes below this moving average then we should see prices go down to 2800's fairly soon. However, if the low made today manages to hold further selling then we might see the market attempt to reverse its bearish bias. There are more reasons to sell now than to buy but who knows. Maybe a China "trade deal' will be announced soon and that will help the market. On the other hand, I don't see Trump digging himself out of his latest mess. If he is not held accountable, what prevents politicians from soliciting favors from China, Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia, etc. to help their campaigns? Not only will they be owing favors to their corporate donors but to foreign governments too. You don't have to be political to understand why this was a big lapse of judgement by the genius.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 24






















The top at 3021 was confirmed today with 2978 support breaking as I had been expecting. And given the reason for selling is the potential impeachment of the genius, we could be in for a long correction as this process takes time and only adds to the political chaos already in place. You would think Trump would be a little bit smarter than try to extort a foreign government for political dirt on an opponent. But then again, it is Trump who manages to outdo himself every time.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, September 23, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 23






















The market closed the day flat but this has turned the TA bearish and implies the high made last Thursday at 3021 is a top. A break of support at 2978 would confirm a deeper correction ahead. What degree of a correction it will be remains to be seen but it seems almost every time we get a bigger correction the bulls come right back.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, September 20, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 20






















The market basically traded sideways this whole week but managed to come close to all-time highs on Thursday before giving up gains. Technically speaking, that high on Thursday would satisfy the count posted but I'll assume there will be more upside next week before ending the 5 count. If prices fall below 2978 then there should be a stronger pullback with 2921 as the end of the 5th wave.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, September 16, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 16






















The market went into a minor correction today despite a somewhat major event over the weekend (Saudi Arabia's daily production getting blown in half) so the count continues to point to more upside after this correction is over. The only way this count or pattern would be invalidated is if support at 2957 is breached during a continued pullback.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 11






















I remember 09/11/01 like it was yesterday. It's a sad day for America and I hope this date never fades in our memories so this never happens again.

Now, on the market, prices have continued higher as expected after the initial stages of the break out mentioned on my last post. A challenge to all-time highs on this bullish leg is possible as soon as this week so we'll see if the market can get there by Friday. I ended buying the breakout for a short term trade on my margin. Couldn't resist the set up!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, September 9, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 9






















The market ended the day flat but it looks like part of a sideways correction that should lead to another leg up as soon as tomorrow. In fact, we might even see a new ATH on this move unless there's some sort of negative surprise or some odd tweet by Trump.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, September 6, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 6






















The market broke out as expected and trade over 3000 looks likely as soon as next week. Market is in a "good mood" but I don't think there is anything supporting it other than optimism at this point. So higher prices are likely but they will be reversed at some point.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 4






















The market started the week in a negative note but today's bullish action and close creates a bottoming pattern that could lead to a break out as soon as tomorrow. As long as recent lows are respected, we could see prices rally towards new ATH in the short term. The China trade talks are back on track but again I doubt they will yield any substantial results.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, August 30, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 30






















The market closed the week on a positive note and the TA is now back to bullish again. The high made today challenged resistance at 2943 and should this level break then will see a rally towards ATH. However, given the pattern, another strong bearish leg down would make more sense. Also, given the fact that the markets first recuperated early in the week over a phone call from China that Trump made up, I don't see how the situation over trade has changed from the time of the sell-off to now. Tariffs are being implemented and a recession is getting closer.

Have a great holiday weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking


Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 28






















The market closed the day challenging the TA but so far the counter-rally has been weak and there should be another bearish leg starting soon. If selling stops at 2822 there is still the chance for a bottom but support is breached then we could see very strong selling ahead. I am putting most of my liquid money in tax free bonds in the meantime, decent tax free returns.

Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, August 26, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 26






















The market managed to counter-rally today after having a bearish opening in pre-market. Looking at the pattern and ignoring what the genius has been tweeting, it looks like there should be another strong bearish leg down after this sideways move is over. The upper band of this sideways pattern is 2943 so it is possible we see a rally continue until resistance is hit. Contradicting information by Trump is the perfect excuse to see this pattern develop as what he thinks and says on Friday is completely different to what he will say on Monday. Instead of trading waves, we could be trading his temper tantrums.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking


Friday, August 23, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 23






















Just as the TA had turned positive, Trump threw a temper tantrum today that changed all of that. Stable genius is upset the Fed is cutting rates when they feel like it (and not when he wants to) and China retaliating for tariffs he imposed on them. This sent markets into a steep sell-off and critical support at 2822 might break early next week, which could cause the type of selling we haven't seen in months. China's tariffs are on US oil, which hits Trump's political base. And the more he keeps at it, the less China will buy from the US in general, which hits many states that got him elected in the first  place. Trump should be smart enough to know (I have some doubts about it) that he will lose 2020 for sure unless he produces a trade deal and manages to convince the Fed to lower rates but attacking the Chinese president and Powell is not going to produce the results he wants. The guy is literally a man-child. I was thinking of jumping into the market briefly but after all of this today, I am putting all my cash in a 9 month CD.














Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 21






















The market has been able to hold recent recent gains and has turned the TA bullish. This positions to market to rally in the next week or two and possibly challenge all-time highs. Obviously, this doesn't mean the recession fears have abated or that the China trade issue has been resolved. In fact, the yield curve inverted again today but traders ignored that this time. So it will possibly new highs again and then a nasty sell-off sooner than later. I might jump in on this rally.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking