Monday, August 19, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 19




The market has continued to bounce and managed to close above the TA today. The coming correction will be the make or break for the uptrend that started in late May. If prices are able to hold above 2822 then we officially have a bottom and prices could rise to new ATH. But if support is broken then the high for the year is already in. I might trade this coming correction if I see a good entry point.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, August 16, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 16






















The market closed the week in red again but managed to rally back somewhat in the last couple of sessions after succesfully testing the 2822 low. The successful test of support creates a potential bottoming pattern that would be confirmed if the TA turns bullish next week. I assume, if the TA turns bullish, that many will be using the rally to sell at resistance and or even go short. Resistance lies at 2944.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 14






















The market had an ugly day today with prices down almost -3%. The bond yield curve sent panic through the markets but this should not have really come as a surprise as I mentioned this on the last update. And as I said on my last post, if support at 2822 fails then it will point to a likely nested bearish 1-2 with a lot more selling to come. Stable genius wants to meet with China's Xi and I am sure he is trying to do whatever he can to save face and come up with a "deal". Maybe there is some sort of agreement but I highly doubt China will make concessions, if anything, they will be backtrack even more now that it is obvious they have the stronger hand. They know Trump will soon be in panic mode and will do anything to dig himself out of the hole he made himself.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, August 12, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 12






















The market closed substantially down today and it is make or break for the bulls at this point. If a strong selling wave comes soon then this is a nested bearish 1-2 that would leave 3027 as the likely high for the year. But if 2822 is able to hold the selling then we have a bottoming pattern in place and prices will likely reach a new high soon. Personally, I've been out of the market for months and not doing anything until there is more clarity. You have bond yields pointing to a recession and a very likely "no deal" with China this year.  This sets up the perfect background for a recession in 2020.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, August 9, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 9






















The market managed to close the week slightly negative despite dipping to low 2800's earlier in the week. I was expecting a 5th leg to go below 2800 but the count did no materialize. Instead, we have a possible nested bearish 1-2 or a possible bottom at 2822 if a correction fails to break support. It's still too early to call for a bigger correction but the economic background is not looking as good as it did a few months ago. Calls for lower interest rates are a signal the government is getting worried.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 7






















The market has rallied back in the past couple of sessions but not enough to invalidate the bearish pattern and count in place. If the labels are correct, we should see selling resume soon and possibly see the 200 DMA just under 2800 tested.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, August 5, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 5






















The count pointed to lower lows this week but the market looks like is headed substantially lower. I guess bears should thank stable genius for this correction and the likely recession that is coming soon (if the trade issue isn't resolved ASAP). I mentioned last week China was not just going to give into Trump's demands and with his brilliant move of raising tariffs while negotiating (against his advisers wishes), he has managed to destroy whatever good will there was. China doesn't care because they are in the position of strength. They will soon have the largest economy and have the largest consumer market, they have little incentive to accommodate demands by a man-child.

Expect prices to go below the 200 DMA (2790) this week.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, August 2, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 2






















The market fell below the 50 DMA today before bouncing back to close just above this trend line. Looking at the count, it lines up well with a bearish 5 count so we should see a new low next week if the count is correct. The big question is whether this is another minor correction or the beginning of a substantial correction.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Thursday, August 1, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 1






















The TA was again whipsawed this week, a first double-whipsaw since I started using this signal and the market is now leaning bearish with substantial downside to come if prices fall below 2926. Like I said on my last post, I don't think China will be yielding much and more tariffs like the ones announced today will just accelerate the path towards recession. Trump is working hard at negotiating something that can no be negotiated and that is forcing China to change some of its laws. If the US was 50%+ of their export market it would make sense (Mexico capitulated to tariff threats in less than a week) but at 18%, it hurts but it's bearable. Also, how can you negotiate the fact that China is able to produce some goods more efficiently and cheaper than everybody else? trade deficits are as natural as income inequality. Some skills are better rewarded than others and it should be the market that decides not people in politics.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 30






















The market has turned bullish again after recent highs and prices should continue to rise for as long as the TA is bullish. Hard to imagine the market making new highs if the trade talks with China don't go well but for now, it seems the market is optimistic there will be a resolution. Personally, I don't think China will make any major commitments and Trump will either have to tax at 25% as promised or find some "solution" to avoid this being a problem for his 2020 campaign. China technically has the upper hand right now despite what Trump says (or tweets).

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Thursday, July 25, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 25






















The market managed to hold support and rally to new highs yesterday. If prices are able to hold above 2996 the TA will turn bullish again and new all-time highs should be expected. It's been a long time since the TA has been whipsawed but it seems like a bullish turn is coming again.

Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, July 22, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 22






















The market closed slightly up today but it wasn't enough to recapture the TA so now the trend has gone bearish. What remains to be seen is how support at 2963 holds as it is crucial for this pivot to hold if the rally is to continue to higher highs.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, July 19, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 19






















The market closed the week down -1.23%. Most of the gains from yesterday bounce were erased today and continued weakness will turn the TA bearish. But as I said on my last post, as long as 2963 is not breached the pattern points to higher highs.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 17






















The market has gone into a stronger correction after making an all-time high on Monday. The close today was below the Trend Average but the pattern still favors more upside as long as 2963 doesn't get breached. A break of 2963 would bring a "real" correction in the next few weeks.

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, July 15, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 15






















The market made another high earlier in the morning as expected but not by much. We need to see a bit more consolidation or a pullback for another stronger rally to come. With the China trade talks starting again this week, the market will have an excuse to keep pushing higher.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Thursday, July 11, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 11






















The market has closed at an all-time high as expected and continued upside is likely if recent lows hold any pullbacks. Maybe we will see 4000 in the not too distant future!! We are now in the longest economic expansion ever so this could turn out to be a "W3" of economic expansions.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, July 8, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 08






















The market closed down today but did not make a lower low. If 2967 continues to hold then we can expect a challenge to all-time highs in the next few days.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, July 5, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 05






















The market opened down today and tested the TA before erasing most of its losses by the end of the day. We should see 3000 next week if the low today holds. The reason for selling today was the strong jobs report, which is actually a good thing for the economy but instead it was used as an excuse to take profits. I wonder if the market will be able to reach 4000 before the next recession comes.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Wednesday, July 3, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 03






















I had just mentioned 3000 yesterday but I guess that level might be reached Friday if the bullish momentum continues. We are now officially in the longest economic expansion in history and one of the best stock markets ever as well. Question is, how much longer before the reset kicks in.

Happy 4th!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Tuesday, July 2, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 02






















Last week I mentioned the market was getting ready to make new all time highs and this is what are seeing this week. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if 3000 is reached in the next week or two given pattern and general bullish momentum. I didn't think I'd be saying this in July but the market looks like it is going for substantially higher highs. So much for my summer bear market prediction..lol. Goes to show, the TA is the most reliable indicator as proven over the years.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking


Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 26






















The market ended up peaking as labeled and it has since gone into a deeper correction to test the Trend Average. The set up remains bullish until the TA turns bearish so my assumption is the market will be making new highs again soon.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, June 24, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 21






















The market technically went into a "correction" today and looking at the chart it seems there is more upside left. I labeled the waves completed but I wouldn't bet on it. I assume the G20 meeting this coming weekend will produce the catalyst that will set the tone for the market for the summer. I don't see China yielding structural consessions so Trump might get something else out of them and say "we won".

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 20






















The market broke out range as expected and made a new ATH today. I had been expecting a strong counter-rally when the market bottomed but a new high is somewhat of a surprise to me given the time of the year and the economic background. But it is what it is and now all trends are back to bullish mode again. It's almost feels like bear markets are a thing of the past. In the 2000's, we saw 2 bear markets in in less than ten years. Now it's been 10 years since the infamous 666 and the market has not seen one since then. The whole thing is actually incredible if you think about how the mood was in 2009.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking


Monday, June 17, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 17






















The market again traded sideways today and I assume prices will break out of range in the next day or two. If prices do break resistance, we could see a challenge to ATH as soon as this or next week.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish





* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking


Friday, June 14, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 14






















The market continued its sideways consolidation today and it seems like it is getting ready for a push higher before a real correction begins. We might just see prices attempt a new ATH in the next week or two.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking