Sunday, January 10, 2021

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 10th












What a week! Despite all the political turmoil and what basically amounts to an attempted coup by the loser, the market managed to reach a new all-time high! And this is not even taking into account the record of people getting sick and dying by the thousands.. There seems to be a disconnect somewhere but it is what it is. The TA has been bullish all along and pointing in the right direction and continues to favor higher highs. With that said, the market is very overbought and there should be a change of trend soon. Hopefully, it won't be some violent act related to the loser but after another impeachment, he might just convince enough people to do more stupid things.


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Monday, January 4, 2021

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 4th












Happy New Year! I am glad 2021 is finally here and I hope we will be able to put the pandemic behind us in a few months. These next few months are going to be tough but at least there is light at the end of the tunnel. That and the fact we won't have a man-child running the country anymore!

Anyway, the market closed the year at an all-time high as expected but started the year with a sell-off. The market is overbought at this point and any strong sell-off shouldn't come as a surprise. What has been surprising is how resilient the market has been in light of the pandemic and the clown show in the White House. I see some Elliott Wave counts that call for a sell-off very soon to challenge last year's low at 2200 but to be frank, I am not sure how valid are those predictions as this seems like a long-term W3 with no end in sight. But who knows? maybe we'll see a bear market year after more than a decade of waiting for one! I got lucky in business and the stocks I bought in China years ago but I will continue to be patient for an opportunity to get back in the US market. I am sitting on quite a bit of cash just waiting to be deployed so maybe we'll see an entry soon in the US?

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors


Saturday, December 19, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 19th












What a year it has been. I remember last December I had just come back from a trip to the UK and was really looking forward to a great 2020! And it was around this time last year that I first heard of the corona virus in China and how it could spread abroad. I thought it was going to be like SARS or the H1N1 flu but it turned out to be the worst pandemic we have seen in 100 years. One would think, an event of cataclysmic proportions would have caused a 12-year bull market to crash but instead, the market is up almost 15% this year!! One would assume looking at this that bear market corrections do not exist anymore and are a thing of the past.

Anyway, I don't even want to predict what is going to happen in 2021 with the market because it has become impossible to do so. But one thing I do know from doing this for so long is that everything comes in cycles. Whether the next cycle will be a big downturn or a temporary one will remain to be seen but I am deploying all the cash I've been accumulating in the next bullish cross (assuming a bearish cross will come in the next few months). I have seen several Elliott Wave counts that call for a big turn soon that could create many opportunities and we'll see if they finally come to fruition. Whatever the case, staying with the trend will be the safest thing to do. 

I hope 2021 will bring normality to our lives once again. I am already looking forward to travelling and catching up on so many things I had to put off this year. If there is anything positive about 2020 is that I have learned to appreciate normality!

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Saturday, December 5, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 5th




The market closed the week at a new all-time high and it seems unstoppable at this point. I don't think anyone could have predicted the market to be at an all-time high at this point during the very peak of the pandemic and a damaged economy. And that's not even taking into account how long this rally has been going on for. Technically speaking, we are still on the same leg that started in 2009, possibly the longest and expansive wave ever. And while I think (and hope) we will get a good correction to take advantage of lower prices, I am not so sure we will see a multi-year bear given the persistently low-interest environment keeping up asset prices. Maybe it will come when none of us are expecting it as usual.

I have a lot of cash sitting on the side at this point. About 35% of my total liquid assets to be exact. I will get into an interest yielding ETF once we get a correction and then re-assess if I should be more aggressive as 2021 progresses.

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors



Saturday, November 21, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 21st

 












The market closed the week slightly negative at -0.77% after reaching a new ATH last Friday. If prices continue to fall then the TA will likely turn bearish this coming week. Looking at the waves from the longer-term perspective, there are enough waves to call the rally finished so there is a chance we could see a sharp turn-around soon. At the same time, given that all the bad news are out (Record COVID cases, a President who refuses to leave, recession, etc), I am not sure what could bring down the market substantially at this point. In a way, the biggest surprise is how well the stock market has performed despite all the challenges. I just hope it won't be the loser doing something even more unthinkable and stupid to wreck the economy or the political system in this country. 

The good news is that the vaccines are coming so hopefully normality will come back very soon! I am going to catch up on traveling for sure.

Short Term Trend = Bulliss trend being challenged

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors


Thursday, November 12, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 11th












The market has been able to reverse course again and turn all bullish again. This technically happened last week and now the market has reached a new all-time high which invalidates all previous bearish set ups and positions the market for further gains if the TA remains bullish. The technical setup prior to the elections was pointing to a strong sell-off and despite the fact that the loser has refused to concede (as predicted), the markets are choosing to overlook this problem. Whether this will turn out to be a "head fake" or the beginning of a sustained rally for the next couple of months remains to be seen but for now, trends are firmly bullish.

I continue to hoard cash and will only deploy when the time is right. There might be upside to be missed but I continue to believe there will be strong selling once the current vaccine euphoria subsides and it's better to be patient at this point.

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Saturday, October 31, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 31st

 


The market lost -5.41% for the week and closed well below the 50 DMA at 3402. Failure to recapture lost ground this coming week will just add selling pressure and will likely push prices to test the 200 DMA at 3129. The most likely scenario, if the Trend Average is not recaptured soon, is a severe substantial selloff in the next week or two and the renewal of the bear market. I assume the next few months are going to be rough for the market and the country as a whole. But at least, hopefully, we won't have a clown as a president anymore. The potential for conflict and violence in the US is high given all the political rhetoric but I think in the end we will get through this. 

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors