Sunday, August 9, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 8th


The market closed the week up +2.45% and is now headed towards an ATH challenge. In fact, if the TA remains bullish, we should see new all-time highs in the next week or two. It's such insane event if you take into consideration we just crossed 5 million coronavirus cases and the projection is now 300K deaths by December. That's more Americans dying than all wars combined since WW2 but it seems like the pandemic is not registering just yet. But as I've been saying, the time will come when all of a sudden the market realizes we are actually in a deep recession and reflect that in the numbers. Until then, the madness will continue.

Short Term Trendd = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors


Sunday, August 2, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 2nd



The market was able to bounce this week and regain its TA which positions the index to continue its rally towards ATH. I am not sure if prices will actually make it to new highs but at this point, it continues to look likely despite the fact we are in a recession and we have a once in a century pandemic. It will be interesting to see how all of this evolves in the next 12 months but my assumption continues to be a major, sudden sell-off in the not too distant future. If there is no reset in prices then it would mean the stock market is immune to the economy and that would be a total absurdity. I am sure the near zero interest rates and generous stimulus will help but at some point, reality must set in. 

Short Term Trendd = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Saturday, July 25, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 25






















The market reached a higher high this week at 3280 but ended up reversing most of its gains. Arguably, the pattern in place is bearish unless prices are able to make a higher this coming week. The Trend Average continues to be bullish but could turn bearish if support at 3200 is broken in the next few sessions. I still favor a challenge to all-time highs before a strong sell-off takes place so we'll see how things evolve. I remember making a big deal of the US surpassing China back in coronavirus cases (80,000 cases) back in March and assuming a historical sell-off would come around this time where we have north of 3 million cases but I was completely wrong on people acting rationally. Maybe the same crowd that panicked back in March when the US had a few thousand cases will all of a sudden wake up and realize how bad things really are.

Short Term Trendd = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Sunday, July 19, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 19th






















The market has continued to rally as expected and just needs to overcome resistance in the 3230-40 range to possibly breakout and challenge ATHs. In the meantime, the number of virus cases in the US is now out of control and there is simply no end in sight to this nightmare. The market continues to behave like the orange clown himself like nothing is happening but the inevitable will come. You simply can not deny a once in a 100-year pandemic! I read an interesting article on what JP Morgan is predicting and it just goes to show nobody knows anything at this point other than it will be bad no matter what.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/18/jamie-dimons-warning-for-the-us-economy.html

In the meantime, we just need to be patient and wait for a fast cure or vaccine.

Short Term Trendd = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Sunday, July 12, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 12th






















The market had another good week by closing up +4.01% and a new golden cross is officially in place. A continued rally towards all-time highs is now likely in the next few weeks but once it gets there I wonder if the fundamentals will finally catch up and drag everything back down. The virus situation is now at catastrophic levels and I don't know much more the market will ignore the fact that we are in a recession that will be long-lasting. Like I said last week, this is probably the ultimate sucker's rally as I think it's obvious a crash is coming.

Short Term Trendd = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Sunday, July 5, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 5th






















If someone would have asked me a few months ago if the market was going to be in rallying mode and set to challenge ATH during the peak of a pandemic, I would have said no way. But this is exactly what is happening now. The virus is going as strong as ever and there are parts in the country facing a healthcare collapse in the next few weeks. In addition, some states are rolling back the re-opening of the economy but the market behaves like it is 2019!! Maybe I am missing something but perhaps this is the ultimate sucker's rally as I don't see our economy generating the profits necessary to maintain a rising stock market. The only justification I can see is the fact that interest rates are close to zero and investors have nowhere to put their money but stocks and real estate. Perhaps, prices will reach new all-time highs soon and then selloff just like they did in March where amateur investors didn't have time to react. Crazy times we are living in!


Short Term Trendd = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish

Saturday, June 27, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 27






















The market has failed to get past resistance after an initially bullish open earlier this week and ended closing down -2.96%. I assume prices are going to test 2965 this coming week and if that level fails to hold then Adios! I've been saying for weeks if not months that the market has been disconnected from reality and perhaps some selling will reflect the record cases of the coronavirus in our country. The sad thing is that this is just barely getting started, this is like the 3rd inning and it seems a lot of people are still deluded into thinking we are going to be in a V shape recovery. The economies of red states with clown-like governors are going to pay the highest price, unfortunately. I have a cash war chest ready to buy of a panic sell-off like the one we saw in March. Now that the markers (support levels) are there, it's a little easier to take bigger risks. On another interesting, GREAT personal note. My birthday is coming up and today I logged on into a PayPal like account I use for receiving payments after a Russian programmer was asking me to use that service since PayPal is restricted in Russia. All along, I was thinking this service was directly depositing money to my bank account every time payments were sent there from buyers but NO. I logged in and discovered I had $111K sitting there!! lol. I thought it was maybe in another currency but it was all USD so I guess this was my birthday present!! Discovering money I didn't know I had. How this was able to accumulate to that level, I don't know but I am pretty happy now :)

Have a great (and safe) weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish