Thursday, May 28, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 28




















The market looks like it is setting itself up for a strong move and we could see a clear impulsive wave tomorrow. One could argue for a 1-2 set up either way so trying to predict which way it's going is a coin toss. However, the market did close under the TA so pressure is on the bulls to follow though on yesterday's rally. We have several issues in the background so an excuse to sell is already there. China's 6.5% dive yesterday after making a 7 year high (that's what you call volatility!) and the Greek problem could push sentiment to the bearish side. Maybe bears will finally wake up?

I am holding VXX until I see a reason to sell and still hoping for China to reach higher highs. If China continues to sell off, I will just add more positions with the cash I have left.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 27




















The market re-bounded to test the Trend Average today and we should find out soon if a summer correction has started. To confirm the bearish scenario we need to see a strong sell off wave  to make a lower low, ideally below 2068. Alternatively, if bulls manage to continue the rally tomorrow to challenge all time highs, we could see another IHS set up that targets higher highs.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 26




















The market finally had a sell off after rallying for couple of weeks. I see 5 waves down but we could see a mild a bounce before seeing more downside to complete a bigger 5 wave count. Losing the Trend Average and the 50 DMA at 2097 are signs the summer correction is here but we need to see this structure break 2068 to confirm the most recent high as a top. Fundamentally, the sell off is being blamed on the dollar which basically is following the count I posted on Friday. The dollar has a good chance of testing its high for the year in this bullish wave, so we'll see how the stock market will deal with this. On the bullish side, China has resumed its rally just like I posted on Friday as well but I don't think that will do much for sentiment here in the US. That market has rallied 5% is 2 days, so I am now about 10% away from my goal.. it's complete mania there. Traders there have no regards for fundamentals which in a way is great for someone who is paying attention. It allows you to pick stocks ultra-cheap (and they were ridiculously cheap for years, that's why I put all my money there) and sell them really high.

Last but not least, here is the LT chart I last updated in Dec 14. I calculated the wave length for the current rally and had a target of 2,168. So the most recent high is close enough but we could still see some sort of bullish miracle in the next few weeks to a higher high.





















For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Friday, May 22, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 22





































The possible ending diagonal I put up yesterday was eliminated with today's mostly sideways move. So I moved the 5th back to where it was given the lack of bullish momentum in the last couple of days. It's hard to see how the market could continue going up without a strong catalyst, specially now that earnings are over and the dollar might start to rally again (I've never counted the dollar, so I gave it a try today and it looks very bullish). One factor that could help sentiment is a resumption of the rally in China but that market has never really been much of a catalyst for the US market.

I've been hedged with VXX and it has taken a beating, but hopefully it will come alive in the next few weeks. And now that China seems to have finished its correction, if there is a strong wave coming like the one in April then I'm pretty sure I'll reach my retirement goal in the next month or two. I just need 15% more upside and I'll start locking in profits/position trading, which I have not done since I started positions years ago. I guess is time to start planning my vacations!

Have a great holiday weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Thursday, May 21, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 21




















The market almost confirmed the end of the 5th wave with its early morning low but it managed to put in a higher low instead. So new all time highs can still be expected but given the declining momentum, I favor an Ending Diagonal to finish off the 5th. Also, we have to keep in mind this 5th wave could be just the end of the wave that started at 2096 and not the entire structure from 2067 and in that case we would see just a mild correction before another all time high.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 20




















The market made a lower low early morning and then rallied to a new all time high, which is what the count had been calling for. Technically speaking, the entire structure from 2067 could be complete but waves do not look proportionate.  Ideally we'd see more upside before a "top" is in place for a correction to the Trend Average, but the market is free to start its correction (or sell off) with today's high. We'll find out very soon if we'll see the sell in May effect, specially when the Trend Average gets tested.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 19




















The market made a higher high today but reversed all its gain by the end of the day. For now, I expect more downside before the resumption of the rally to complete the count posted. Maybe the market manages to surprise everyone this year by skipping corrections and going straight to 2300? as it is, there has only been one bull market that is more expensive than the current one measured in market cap to GDP. The only other time stocks had a higher market cap to GDP was in the dot-com era 15 years ago. And it is just a question of time before the next bear market begins, when that will happen is obviously anyone's guess. But my assumption is one is coming within the next 2 years and hopefully we'll see good opportunities like in 2001 or 2009. I hope I will have reached my retirement goal by then so I can double it in the next bull run.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.