Monday, July 28, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 28




















The market had a bearish open but found support at the 1965 level and ended up the day closing right on the Trend Average and at resistance, so tomorrow we could see the start of a sell off if the market has indeed found some sort of top. If the market manages to break resistance, chances are the all time high will be challenged. There are headlines around calling for the start of a correction, which is needed for substantially higher highs to come. But with some markets breaking out, most notably China, any correction at this point will probably not retrace all that much. Maybe in the 5-10% range?

Also, I wanted to add that I have not posted an Intermediate or Long Term count recently because waves are not very clear. One could argue the market continues to be in a Primary 3rd wave or the final 5th wave of the structure that started in October 2011 at 1074. If you are fortunate enough to have been long since 2009. the best thing to do is follow the trend signals primarily and wave counts second. Long Term Elliott Wave counts can form a bias (specially if trend signals are ignored) that can be disastrous if you find yourself on the wrong side of the trend. To illustrate my point, just take a look at the infamous count from Elliott Wave International in 2010. Which at that point almost every single EW person was following and trading.


























Anyone who traded that Long Term count expecting the DOW to go to 400 this year got basically wiped out completely. However, if one takes the trend into account and puts aside all the personal biases as I did back then, the expectation and expected results could not have been further apart.
























Trend is your friend!


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish Trend being Challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Friday, July 25, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 25




















The bullish micro 5 count failed today as the correction retreated below 1979.91, so it implies a good possibility of lower lows if the all time high does not get breached. One pattern I'd like to see is a Head and Shoulder's with 1955 being the left neckline (if 1991>1974 was W1, then I expect 1950-1955 on a bearish 5 count). If we see further selling, the market might find a bottom at that level and rally to form a right shoulder. This pattern would provide good short term opportunities for longs and shorts, so I'll be keeping an eye on it.  Also, I saw Goldman Sachs issued a warning of a temporary sell off in stocks in the next 3 months due to the what has been happening in the bond market. The market hasn't had two consecutive bearish months in 2 years, and maybe we'll see one before the summer is over. I am holding on to Gold and hoping to see a follow thru rally next week.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Thursday, July 24, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 24




















The market made a marginal new high today despite good earnings reports and a strong China PMI. So I am assuming a 3rd wave peaked and we will see consolidation before another wave that should go past 2000. This 3rd wave on the micro count is about the same length as the 1st wave, which is shorter than usual for a W3. So we'll see if we get an extension on the 5th? For the micro count to be valid, 1979.91 can not be breached or else it will signal a deeper correction. My gold position did not do too well today but it is still within a bullish pattern, so we'll see..

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics




Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 23




















The market continued marching higher today thanks to the tech sector and the count on the SP500 is starting to look like a bullish 5 wave count. If this is the correct count, then we're looking at 2015-2020 as the initial target. Considering there will be lots of earning reports tomorrow, this might just be the excuse to blow past 2000. Also, if China reports a good PMI tonight, it will set the tone for a worldwide rally so we'll see how the numbers look in a few hours. I am up to my neck in Chinese shares on my long term portfolio, so I hope PMI numbers will come above expectations. Lastly, I bought back Gold today as I see a potential for a multi-month rally if lows hold. Time for Gold to shine again.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 22




















Another all time high was reached today by the SP500 and the Trend Average has turned green again. However, I still see the possibility of the second shoulder at the 1965 level before any meaningful rally. The waves in the last few weeks have been choppy while the daily MACD has been resetting, which normally points to a consolidation period. One could argue for a flat correction or a sideways correction at this point, so a break out of the trading range puts the market easily over the 2010 level. Even if the market breaks some of its most recent support levels, it would still be bullish given the fact that bears have not really been able to make a dent in this rally. I can't really imagine the market continuing to rally until December but as I've always said, the trend is your friend. I am in cash on my trading account as the market didn't test the 1965 level so my game plan is the same as yesterday.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics





Monday, July 21, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 21




















The market started the day on the bearish side but it bounced right off the 1965 level to close just above the Trend Average, which will possibly turn bullish if the market manages to trade above it tomorrow. There is the possibility of a Double Shoulder Inverted H&S, so if we see the market bounce off 1965 again, chances are we will see a break out rally. A potentially profitable set up is to buy at 1966 with a stop at 1958, with the upside potential of 2005. I sold Gold today to lock in profits and I will either buy the market if we see support tested again or buy gold at the test of its 50 DMA.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish Trend being Challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Friday, July 18, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 18




















The market was able to hold the low from yesterday in the cash market and had a strong rebound today closing comfortably above the Trend Average. So it is too early to tell just what general direction the market is going in the next few weeks. If the bulls manage to break the all time high, then the TA will change to the bullish side again and more upside will come. But if the market fails to reach a high and goes back below the TA, then lower lows will come and maybe we'll finally see the correction many of us have been waiting for. There are different ways to label the waves but for the sake of simplicity, I rather leave them without labels until something more clear and predictable appears. Until then, I think it's best to be cautious. I am holding on to Gold in hopes of another bullish wave to come early next week.

Have a Great Weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish Trend being Challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics