Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 27th

 


Last week I added this note below on EWA:

"The market has struggled in the past few sessions and the short-term trend has turned bearish. This could be the very beginning of a significant top if prices fall below the 3400 level. However, if the market is able to turn around and make a higher high then it has a clear shot at making new all-time highs before the end of the multi-month rally."

The market has lost more ground since last week and now prices are below the 3400 level I mentioned so the probability of a major selloff looks increasingly likely soon, possibly this or next week. I can't imagine the clown actually conceding like a normal person after the results so I am going to assume he will be the cause for this coming selloff and bear market. The question is how bad is it going to get. Will he call on his supporters to start revolting or worse? will the national guard/military get involved? it sounds like a far-fetched scenario but considering what we have seen in the last 4 years, this scenario sounds likely. And obviously, we are also going to see horrible virus numbers so maybe that could move the market as well but I think the main cause will be the loser himself.

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors


Saturday, October 17, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 17th

 


The market started the week strong and came within a few dozen points of an ATH but it struggled to hold on to gains for the rest of the week. If prices fail to make higher highs this coming week then it could turn bearish and start to sell-off substantially. But for now, the TA remains bullish and I will assume higher highs until 3340 is breached. We're a couple of weeks away from the elections and results should move the markets substantially. Also, the coronavirus is going to continue to surge to numbers not seen since the national peak in the spring and I wonder if the markets will continue to ignore the impact as it has done for the last few months. 

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors






Monday, October 12, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 12th

 


The market has continued to make higher highs as expected and I think an ATH is in the cards this or next week as long as the Trend Average remains bullish. I wouldn't be surprised if prices go much higher if a viable coronavirus vaccine is announced before the elections. Whatever the case, I think the event that will be the excuse for a massive selloff will be the outcome of the elections. The Trump campaign is showing signs of desperation and the clown himself will refuse to acknowledge a loss. I think anyone who has been paying attention to what this man has done or said in the last 4 years would bet this is the most likely scenario and this will be uncharted territory for this country. Also, I wanted to add that USPS delays are a big problem and I wonder how this will factor into the result for the elections. I can tell you for a fact, that 20% of USPS First Class and Priority mail is getting lost or delayed for several weeks (normally, it takes 2-3 business days). I am not sure if this is particular to my region (California) or if it's nationwide. I send several thousand packages per month and the 20% loss/extremely late rate for the last few weeks doesn't seem to be getting better. So, unless ballots are given special handling (as they should), I don't see how we're going to have accurate results on Nov 3rd. The next few weeks are going to be interesting.


Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors




Tuesday, October 6, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 6th

 


It seems like 7 months since last week's Trump-Biden debate instead of 7 days but we are now getting closer to election time and to possibly a significant top for the market. Prices have rallied quite a bit as expected since the 3209 low held up last week but we could see headwinds between now and the outcome of the elections. Surging corona virus cases, the contamination of the White House (and now the Pentagon) and even the clown himself hasn't done much damage to the market. But I continue to assume some election drama, like Trump's refusal to leave the WH could cause the market to collapse. We'll find out in the next few weeks. For now, the TA is bullish despite the sell-off today so I will assume higher highs and maybe even an ATH challenge as long as the TA remains bullish.


Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors


Saturday, September 26, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 26th












The market staged a strong counter-rally on Friday but still lost -1.11% for the week. A lower low at 3209 was made and whether this low breaks this coming week will be critical for the uptrend that started in March. Looking at the charts, there could still be one more bullish leg left before another bear market comes, so this coming week will be important to watch for clues. By now, it seems the market simply refuses to acknowledge the effects of the coronavirus so I am not sure whether the coming spike in cases will do anything to the market. However, if Trump refuses to concede or makes things chaotic in November then it will be a good reason for the market to go into the next bear market. Looking at the man, my bet is he will not acknowledge losing. Just like he constantly refuses to acknowledge the polls and calls the Nov election rigged and unfair. Sounds like a nightmare slowly coming true.. just when you thought 2020 was already bad enough.


Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors




Monday, September 21, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 21st

 


I meant to update the site last night but I forgot. This is what I added to EWA over the weekend;

"The market closed the week down -0.64% but support at 3310 was breached on Friday and this opens the possibility of strong selling in the next few sessions. If prices fall below 3310, the next level of significant support is 3100."

Today, the market experienced substantial selling, and anything short of a strong rebound to the 3400's sets up the market for a continued strong sell-off. 

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors


Sunday, September 13, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 12th

 












The market has continued to make lower lows and just barely closed over its 50 DMA at 3321. If prices fall below the 50 DMA, we should see selling accelerate to test the 3100 level. If prices are able to bounce off from last week's lows then it still has a chance to making another ATH before the "top" is in. Whatever the case, substantial selling will come in the next few weeks or few months and bring prices down to levels that actually reflect a recession. It's a waiting game but I think it will ultimately pay off very well. 

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors