Friday, August 28, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 28





















The market put in the 5th wave today on the micro-count but there is a possibility it might extend on Monday, so maybe it will challenge the 2000-2010 level before going into a correction. Oil and China has continued to rally strongly and they both help keep markets calm. However, volatility should return in September as the Feds get ready to finally raise interest rates.

I cashed in on the stocks I bought couple of days ago since they're up quite a bit and will probably buy them again on the pullback. I get the feeling the market wants to visit its 50 DMA in the next couple of weeks. Last but not least, the death cross in the SP500 is official as of today.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 27





















The market rallied easily past resistance today and confirmed the the double bottom. However, the long term trend turns bearish today and this is the first time it has done so since 2011. Most visitors to the blog have only known the system I use as a "bullish" system but from now until that long term trend turns bullish again, every rally will be viewed as a counter-trend rally. And it's not that I am personally bearish or bullish, the trend system is there to provide us with situational awareness. Not knowing what the major trends are doing is like going sailing without first checking the weather and wave conditions. With that in mind, the first leg of the counter-rally seems to be nearly complete and I'll assume it's part of a B wave that might go all the way back up to challenge the 50 DMA. Now that China seems to be stabilizing and oil has confirmed a bottom, the focus will be on the Feds and their meeting won't come for another 2 weeks. So, stability might elevate the market for a while before another downturn.

And speaking of oil. There's a very good chance the counter-rally will go back up to test its downtrending 50 DMA currently at $49 (WTIC). I actually issued a recommendation just yesterday on oil on the EWA site and it rallied 10% today.

"Oil has finally shown a potential reversal pattern after declining without much of a break for almost 3 months. Aggressive traders can open long positions with $37.75 as the stop loss. Odds favor a strong counter-rally given how oversold Oil is at the moment."


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 26





















 



































The market seems to have put in a firm double bottom at 1867 and a break of 1954 resistance tomorrow would confirm it. The count is complete with a truncated 5th in the cash market (or a normal 5th if after-hours is taken into account). Assuming this is a LT W4 count, I'm going to label the recent decline an A of a possible zig zag or a triangle. Obviously, it could develop into a more complex correction or shoot straight up to new highs as the correction target area (1820-1900) I mentioned last week has been met.

I am posting couple of charts to give an overall perspective of the recent decline. As you can see, there isn't really nothing out of the ordinary at this point and the assumption should be this is a correction within a bull market. With that in mind, the long term trend signal will likely turn bearish in the next couple of days and the current bounce is more likely than not a B wave. Depending on how high the counter-rally goes, we could see an equally powerful C wave that will end up challenging the 1820 level or even go below it.

Lastly, I added to my China shares today given the steep decline there in the past few days. I'll probably position trade this particular lot depending on how strong the coming counter-rally is.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged - change imminent

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 25





















Today the market had one of the biggest sucker's rally in recent years before reversing for the bearish 5th wave as expected. At this point, the count could be completed with a truncated 5th at 1867 support but if that breaks, it will get ugly tomorrow in a bearish W3 of the W5. I continue to like 1820 if support breaks but looking at the pattern, we could see 1800 tested. Whatever the case, I'm ready to play the bounce once I feel confident the count is completed. There's panic in the market and like I said yesterday, the only thing that can stop the sell off are key support levels so place your stops accordingly.

China had its worst day in years yesterday in what I believe to be the W3 of a C. If the count is correct, then global markets should start to stabilize in the next week or two. IMO this is a buying opportunity not only in China but almost everywhere. But for now, it's pure bearish hysteria so enjoy/profit while you can!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged - change imminent

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Monday, August 24, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 24



































 
"Basically, 2039 needs break for a stronger correction to begin"

This is a classic example of key support breaking and all hell breaking loose. The market had been supported by that key pivot all year long until it finally broke last week. And despite all the panic and hysteria, there was ample warning  something was not right with the death cross in the DJIA and lower lows being put in weeks ago. This correction is lining up well with the LT W4 count and today's lows reached the target area I mentioned last week of 1820-1900. Looking at the short term count and support levels, I can see one more leg down to challenge 1820 since 1905 broke. I'll probably pick up some shares if 1820 gets tested to play the bounce. With that said, if you are planning to go long, watch those support levels and place your stops accordingly. Panic/Manic markets do not care about oscillators.

The catalysts for this sell off are a combination of rate hikes, China and oil. None which are fundamentally damaging to the economy imo (damaging to profits yes since it raises cost of capital to companies), so this is mainly a sentiment driven sell off. Rate hikes implies Fed's confidence in the economy, oil's low prices are essentially a tax cut for oil importing countries and China's 8-9% sell off is just panic selling unrelated to the overall health of its economy. In fact, I have some more money coming in (for my long term account) this month that I will be putting in China shares. The lower prices go, the more I can buy.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged - change imminent

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Friday, August 21, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 21





















Finally some excitement in the market! After being stuck in the 2040-2134 range for most of the year, support broke yesterday and selling accelerated as I had expected. I heard on the radio today was the worst day for the DJIA in 4 years, which puts into perspective just how much the market has gone up since the low in 2011. All this time the market had respected key trend support but that level broke today and this confirms the top of LT W3 label on the long term chart. I remember when I first started to project the LT count the targets seemed too high but all the waves completed without a single exception and targets proved accurate (give or take a few percentages). Come to think about it, it's actually amazing a market can follow patterns for a period of years. The last time the LT chart was updated was in December and I'll do the Fib retracement labels early next week to bring it up to date.






















Now that the top in May is confirmed, we should be looking for a bottom for the correction. I mentioned a few days ago the 1820-1900 area looked like an attractive target and today that possibility looks very feasible. The short term count looks to me like it's not over, so I am assuming there will be a bounce before another lower low. As it is, the market closed right at support and if this level doesn't hold on the next bearish wave, the next level is 1905. Obviously, it's hard to tell when the bottom will happen but I suspect when the foaming-at-the-mouth permabears get paraded by the media, that will be around the time the bottom will be in. Similar to the case with China right now, while more downside is possible in China, there's a good chance a bottom is getting close with all the "expert" doomers all over the place. So be on the look out for the likes of Marc Faber, Prechter with his DOW 1000, Harry Dent, etc.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged - change imminent

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 19




















The ups and downs continue and we are now getting close to September and the market continues to trade in the same range as it has all year. Basically, 2039 needs break for a stronger correction to begin, otherwise this sideways action could arguably be a time correction. At the same time, the market needs to break out of the 2134 resistance if it is to reverse the imminent death cross coming in the next week or two. And to be clear, a death cross is a lagging indicator and there has been cases where the lows where already in by the time this event happened. However, more often than not, a death cross happens before new lows are in and with the historically worst month for the markets approaching (September), there's a good chance things will get very bearish.

I might be at Disney's California Adventures tomorrow, so again I might miss the update as an entire day out in the sun and making long lines drains me. But at the end of the day, seeing your child happy is priceless.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics