Thursday, September 18, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 18




















Earlier this week I mentioned if the market recaptured the Trend Average, we should seen new all time highs. And today we got the first new all time high of possibly several to come. The market looks like it is going to gap up, so maybe we'll see the Inverse Head and Shoulder's target met tomorrow. Given the fact that Alibaba's IPO is finally coming tomorrow, I can see the bulls using the opportunity to go crazy. Personally, I am very tempted to buy it (Alibaba) but I probably will wait until there are enough sessions to calculate the trend. The problem is, we might see a very bullish week or two and I don't want to miss out on that. Now, with that said, I don't see a very clear micro count yet (I'm going mostly by the IHS pattern for now) and there is a possibility of a Rising Wedge or Ending Diagonal. So the market could sell off suddenly, but as I've been saying for several years now, trade with the Trend Average. DO NOT SHORT this market as long as the TA is Bullish unless you are 100% sure of what you're doing (meaning, you know where your stops are).

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 17




















The market put in the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern I was expecting yesterday and now the target is 2024. Also, the Trend Average is back to bullish so we might see another test before a rally to new all time highs. The one thing I am not too clear on is the micro count, so for now I am just going to follow the IHS pattern and let the waves evolve. Now that we got the Fed statement, we have a good excuse for the market to resume its rally. Additionally, the Alibaba IPO is coming soon and that might create a bullish environment as this is a behemoth in the Chinese market (as significant as Google is to the US). If fact, I will most likely buy some for my long term portfolio. I closed my shorts before the statement but not profitably as I had hoped as the market lingered at 1998-99 before it went down for a few seconds (the only time where I could have made a profit). I will probably short again but not until I see exhaustion. Bears need a strong reversal day to invalidate the IHS, otherwise this thing is going up.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics




Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 16




















The market ended up rallying as expected to the 1997 level as I had expected and closed above the Trend Average. And I am looking at a potential Inverse Head and Shoulders forming, which could be just another test of the TA again or support in the 1983-90 area. Trade under 1978 would invalidate this bullish set up. But given the strength of the bounce today, there is a good chance the market its done with its "correction". I went short at 1997 per my plan yesterday but will probably close this position as soon as it is profitable and probably switch to the long side. Bears had almost two weeks to make their case, but the market is just 0.5% off its all time high.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish Trend being Challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics




Monday, September 15, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 15




















The market completed the micro 5 wave count I wrote about on Friday but it fell a few points short of the 50 DMA before rebounding. Market direction is down but we should see a counter rally to possibly test 1997 (or the Trend Average) before the resumption of another bearish leg. Now, if the market can gather enough bullish momentum to recapture the TA, then we should see new all time highs again. I should have taken a long position early morning but I waited too long/fell asleep.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Friday, September 12, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 12




















The market failed to hold above the 1989 level I mentioned yesterday and ended up putting in a lower low at 1980. I see 3 waves down so far from 1997 and we could see another bearish wave to test the 50 DMA at 1972 and complete a 5 wave move. All these zig zagging waves continue to buy time for the bulls (Implies a W4), so unless there is considerable downside in the next couple of weeks, there is a good chance we will see new all time highs again once daily oscillators reset. I was stopped out at 1989 with a minor loss, and I am going to be on the sidelines until I see the next trade opportunity. Perhaps, I will try going long at the 50 DMA and use a 5 point stop if we get there. The market should start a counter rally early next week.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Thursday, September 11, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 11




















The market put in a higher low early morning and ended up breaking out of the expanding descending wedge as I had been expecting. All this choppiness in what is supposed to be a correction allows oscillators to reset and allow bulls to mount another charge. With the market closing right on the Trend Average, I can see a gap up or a bullish day tomorrow as long as 1989 holds. If we get a 5 wave count from the 1984 low, the projection is about 2015 which is not all that far from the wedge projection of 2020. I took a long position earlier in the day and my stops have been raised to 1989, so we'll see if the pattern turns out as expected.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 10




















The market did not sell off as I had been hoping and instead it counter rallied to test the Trend Average towards the end of the day. So, the count I had yesterday gets eliminated due to W4>W1 overlap and the pattern not looks more like an ABC correction. With the C wave being an expanding descending wedge, a pattern we don't see that often. If the pattern breaks out to the upside (which it does 70% of the time), the target is 2021. Still, the overall picture is mixed and the TA has turned bearish (by a very slight margin). In addition, the daily MACD has rolled over so even if we get that bullish wave, chances are the market is going to see a stronger correction. I covered my short at a profit once waves started to overlap and I will look out for another short set up once I see trade set up again.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics