Monday, June 27, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 27




















Selling continued today and prices easily sliced through the 2025 and the 200 DMA support levels. The market found support in the equivalent area of Thursday night's after hours low but I favor further selling until the 1950-1965 support levels gets tested. I am still on the sidelines waiting to go long near support or if I see a bottoming pattern.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Friday, June 24, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 24




















Yesterday I posted "My guess is that the Brexit side will win and that will help the market get to 2025. However, once the dust is settled, the potential of a recession in the UK and the rest of Europe will force the Feds to not raise rates, which in turn is bullish.".  Brexit won and the market reacted accordingly by plunging as much as 100+ points in pre-market before bouncing somewhat in the cash market. It's hard to tell if the pre-market low equivalent in cash will be revisited (2000) but there is still a favorable chance the 2020-2025 level will be tested. If that support level fails to hold, we might see selling until 1965. Once people stop panicking (not us obviously since we've been anticipating this), the market will have corrected enough to launch a new rally to new all time highs.

The exit of the UK from the EU should not have been that much of a shock in my opinion. Countries in Europe have clear differences that have made them nation-states for hundreds of years. The idea of taking sovereignty from these countries to form a Federal system has always been an ambitious experiment. Now the EU is like a table with three legs and some of the wealthier countries might follow the UK soon, especially if they see the UK survive the ordeal. I am sure there will be economic consequences but in the end the UK will be just like Switzerland. The Swiss have done well despite never joining the EU and seem content with their country as is.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics




Thursday, June 23, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 23




















The market rallied substantially today in anticipation of a favorable outcome to the Brexit vote. At the same time, there is now a 5 count completed from the 2050 low which implies a coming correction. While the market closed above the Trend Average, a bearish wave to the 2025 level would be ideal. Only if the market is able to go above 2120 will the short term bearish bias will be eliminated.

As of the time of this post, the "Brexit" side has a sizable early lead and equity futures are selling off. My guess is that the Brexit side will win and that will help the market get to 2025. However, once the dust is settled, the potential of a recession in the UK and the rest of Europe will force the Feds to not raise rates, which in turn is bullish.

I was checking on Zillow the price of my house and it has gone up almost 50% in 4 years. This would have never been possible had rates been at a normal level, instead these ultra low interest rates have fueled a rally in assets like homes and equities and unfortunately (or fortunately if you have been building capital) there will be a wake up call sooner than later. I think a good 50% correction from whenever the top is for the wave structure that started in 2009 would reset the currently artificially boosted market. Also, a good 25-35% correction in house prices would be great too as I'd like to buy a second home :)

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 22




















The market challenged the 2100 high today but fell short of making a new high. One could interpret the micro-count as a flat, a truncated 5th, or a bearish 1-2 set up so reading waves doesn't do any good as far as trading set ups goes. However, we should get a clearer picture tomorrow on what the market is going to do next. What happens to the UK in regards to the EU will be the excuse to move prices either way.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 21




















Not much to report on today's price movement. The count remains the same and I'm just looking for confirmation of a 5th wave for the micro-count or the start of another bearish leg to test the 2025 level. I sold the rest of my long positions so I am now back to waiting on another trade set up.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Monday, June 20, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 20




















The market broke out of its Diamond Pattern this morning and reached the expected target at 2100 before pulling back for the rest of the day. Prices followed the plan I speculated about last week by going for a lower low at 2050 and then rallying back to test the TA. Now the question is whether buying momentum can be maintained. If the micro-count turns into a 5 wave count, then the correction could be done and we could see highs for the year challenged soon. However, if the current wave turns out to be an zig zag, then we should see another leg that will take the market down to 2025.  The level I am watching is 2079.62 as a breach of this level would imply more selling ahead. I sold half my long positions at the open as planned and I raised my stops on the rest to 2079.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Friday, June 17, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 17




















The market went into consolidation mode today and there is arguably a Diamond Bottom pattern in place. We'd have to see a decisive move above 2079.62 to confirm the pattern and would imply a target of 2100. At the same time, if prices break below 2062.84 then the pattern is eliminated and the low set yesterday would be tested. Since the Trend Average hasn't been tested yet, I favor a bullish break out of the pattern. I raised my stop to 2062 and still looking to start selling on a TA test. Ideally, we'd see the counter-rally exhaust and then another wave to take the market to the 2025 level.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics