Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 30

















The market attempted a break out today but could not overcome the 1986 resistance level and headed back down to close under the 50 DMA. And while the close under the 50 DMA is significant, the bearish camp is not making much progress by not being able to go under yesterday's low. The market has now been in a correction for almost 2 weeks and we could see a strong bullish rally if support keeps holding or if we get a capitulation bearish wave that gets immediately reversed. I went long today in the morning, sold profitably towards mid-day and I'm back to cash. Might go long again if bears keep hesitating.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics





Monday, September 29, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 29




















The market seemed like it was going to sell off strongly early morning, but instead it reserved most of its loses by the end of the day. There is a Diamond Bottom pattern and one could argue for a 1-2 set up for both bulls and bears on the micro count, so this could go either way tomorrow. What's happening in Hong Kong doesn't help worldwide sentiment, but at the same time China just put in a 52 week high tonight. The irony is shares from Chinese companies trading in both China and HK see their stocks rally in the SSEC, while it sells off in HK. At one point, people that step in to take advantage of the price discrepancy of shares from the same company will make a killing.

My guess is the market will hold to an excuse to do whatever it wants and then surprise most people as it usually does. I am on the sidelines until there's more clarity, but I am leaning towards going long if the low for today holds.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics




Friday, September 26, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 26




















The market bounced back somewhat strongly today, not only to test the 50 DMA but to close comfortably above it. But like the bounce earlier in the week, it also has 3 waves or a zig zag so we have to see if this wave turns into a 5 count or if it drops again Monday morning. If the market sells off on Monday, then we might be seeing a bearish nested 1-2 that will most likely test the 1904 low. But if the market can put in a 5 count to anywhere near 1999, we might be seeing another Inverse Head and Shoulders with a 2034 target more or less. I did not get greedy today and sold all my longs when the 50 DMA was tested as planned, and I will wait for the next tradeable market pattern and have myself a stress free weekend :) So I either go short if the market goes for 1999 or long after selling exhausts near 1904.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Thursday, September 25, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 25




















The market sold off today and broke its 1978 support as well as the 50 DMA at 1976. I was expecting the downtrend to continue after a test of 2010 given yesterday's strong reversal, but this one caught me by surprise. We now have a a clear 5 wave count to 1978 from the all time high and a classic abc move to 1999. The current bearish wave is either a C or a W3 unfolding. An ideal C would bottom at 1959, which could happen in after hours or pre-market trading and would lead to a strong rally as soon as tomorrow. However, the market could just bounce to the 50 DMA/1978 level and sell off again in a nested 1-2 set up. I think it is likely the market will go down to the 200 DMA or at least test 1904 on this sell off, but it is too early to tell since there's not a single catalyst being used as the excuse to sell. In fact, not even the mainstream financial media knows what's behind the selling so it's all open to speculation.

I got stopped out on my long position but I bought it back cheaper towards the end of the day in expectation of a 50 DMA test. I should have sold half yesterday and raise my stop, but got greedy so I am basically back to were I started.. I have to remind myself next time to sell, specially when the trend is bearish..

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics




Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 24




















"Perhaps the plan is a 1978 test and then a bounce to form a right shoulder? We'll find out very soon."

The market tested and found bottom at 1978 today as I speculated on Monday and now we'll see if the counter rally stalls to form a right shoulder of a Head and Shoulders. The counter rally has been strong and one could argue for a complete trend reversal. But the real test is overcoming the 2010 level for the bulls,  so we'll see how the market behaves at that resistance level. I am keeping my longs and raising stops to just above break even, hopefully the market will form a good right shoulder so I can sell longs and go short there. But if the market manages to break resistance, I will just ride longs until a new all time high challenge. One fact worth noting is the daily MACD made a bearish cross couple of weeks ago and the market is still at the same level, so the longer the market keeps holding up, the slimmer the chances of a real sell off happening.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 23




















We now have a clear bearish 5 count from the 2019 top with today's session. Also, the Trend Average has turned negative, so this wave from from 2019 is most likely an A or a W1 of a bigger correction. There is a also the death cross on the RUT which could signal an overall change in sentiment in the broader market, so maybe it is time for "the" correction we've been anticipating for months. Still, I'd like to see 1978 break before assuming the 1904 low will be tested. As it is, we should see a bounce  starting tomorrow for a W2/B or right shoulder. If the counter rally stalls around the 2010 resistance, we will have a good low risk/high reward short set up. I went long towards the end of the day but I am now basically looking to short once the market hits resistance.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Monday, September 22, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 22




















The market broke its uptrend support decisively today with what seems like a bearish W3 or a C wave. The close was under the Trend Average and the level I am looking at to confirm the start of a larger downtrend is a clean break of 1978. It's hard to label the wave from 1978 to 2019, but the higher high is usually a sign that we will see that level challenged again. So I am on a wait and see mode until we see something clear. Perhaps the plan is a 1978 test and then a bounce to form a right shoulder? We'll find out very soon.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics