Monday, June 29, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 29




































Greece's decision to go into default had a strong impact on markets around the world. I think up until later last week the consensus was Greece and the EU were going to reach a deal and markets reflected that. This event is in a way unexpected and this is why all the bullish signs from last week have now been reversed. Elliott Wave counts and technical analysis have their limitations imo, one of them being not being able to predict actual events. So now that the market has reversed course, the Head and Shoulder's like formation is in play and is targeting 2010. Sell in May has again proven to be the best thing to do. I sold my oil position at a loss and keeping only my long term positions in China.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Friday, June 26, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 26




















The market had one more bearish wave left in it and it seems like this wave structure bottomed today at 2095. Other than that, there's not much to add as my expectations are the same as yesterday. Perhaps the Greeks will give in to EU demands over the weekend and create the catalyst for the expected rally. Technically speaking, Greeks are sort of screwed either way. If they don't do what the EU wants, then they will have no option but cut back on spending since they won't have enough money to fund all the things they want and people will be paid in Dracmas instead of Euros (guaranteed devaluation). At the same time, if they agree to EU terms (which is to cut back spending), they will be getting more money so they can keep paying loans. Good times have a price and now is time to pay unfortunately.

The other news that concerns me more tis the plunge in China shares. Unfortunately, I didn't get the H&S I was hoping for and instead I am seeing a potential 1 wave correction or worst yet a zig zag to test its 200 DMA. Whichever the case, its hard to see your account go down substantially in 1 day but considering this was all expected, it's technically not that big of a deal. I just hope I can get to my retirement goal by the end of this year. As it is, the SSEC is a year ahead of my break out projections.



















Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish




Thursday, June 25, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 25




















The market has completed a bearish 5 wave count today and we should see an attempt to rally as soon as tomorrow. Whether there is a counter-rally or an impulsive rally to new all time highs remains to be seen. Also, the markets closed under the TA and the 50 DMA today but I continue to expect to a challenge to all time highs after the correction is over.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 24




















The market continued its correction today to test the Trend Average and I'm expecting a challenge to all time highs in the next few sessions. The news of Greece and the EU not reaching a deal doesn't seem to have damaged sentiment much, but we'll see if there is further reaction tomorrow. The NASDAQ opened today at an all time high before reversing and small caps reached an all time high yesterday, so I'm assuming the broader market will join the rally soon.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 23




















The market continued its "correction" today and it now looks like we will see new all time highs as soon as this week. Also, all trends are now back to green and oscillators have reset enough for a new rally. Still, there is the bearish topping pattern in place but it is not looking very favorable given current sentiment in the markets. I read today that it's been over 1350 days since the SP500 has experienced a 10% correction and it seems the only way this market will finally correct 10% is when we get the next recession.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Monday, June 22, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 22




















The market made a higher high today and the count I had on Friday has clearly evolved into a 5 wave count.  Also, key resistance at 2120-2125 is being challenged again and should the market break today's high tomorrow we will see new all time highs on a new multi-week rally. The bearish pattern I mentioned last week remains in place but will be eliminated if an all time high is reached. The Greek debt negotiations might provide the catalyst for the new rally as sentiment will shift to the bullish side again if they find a resolution.

I'm holding to VXX but looking to sell if the bearish pattern is eliminated or on a coming correction. Makes me wonder just how much longer will the long term trend stay bullish for, at this rate I won't be surprised if it ends up lasting 4 years.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Friday, June 19, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 19




















The market pulled back as expected today and we should see a decisive move in the next few sessions that will set market direction for the rest of the summer. Again, the 2120-2125 level offers strong resistance and if bulls can clear that then we should see a rally for few weeks. But if that level holds and the market goes back under the Trend Average, we should see a test of the 200 DMA (2050) at a minimum. Bullish factors to consider going into the weekend is the new daily MACD cross and the fact the TA turned bullish today.

The Greece situation could provide a catalyst to investor sentiment in the next few weeks. Also, China is making a correction already so maybe that could affect sentiment as well? I am holding on to all my positions and considering a position trade on my China shares. I am tempted to switch my China A shares for HK traded H shares, which are substantially undervalued. At this point the best possible outcome is an H&S formation in China so I can exit on the right shoulder and then buy back 15-20% lower. I made it as close as 91% to my retirement goal but now I'm back to 80%. I'm hoping I can get this done by this year, we'll see.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.