Friday, February 27, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 27




















The market managed to close slightly below the Trend Average, signaling a possible stronger correction starting next week. So far there's a target of 2086 if the selling gains momentum, but first the market needs to break 2103. Alternatively, the selling in the last couple of days could be viewed as a minor correction that will lead to another bullish run next week but the market must trade above the Trend Average (2107) for this to happen. I've been waiting to short (for hedging purposes) for weeks, but I rather wait longer until a clear opportunity presents itself.  In the meantime, I continue to be long and hoping for a break out in the Chinese ETFs I have. Today was a 6+ year high, so it's looking very promising.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 26




















The market went into a correction mode today and tested its Trend Average before bouncing back, eliminating the micro-count I had been following. Still, the market looks like it corrected enough to launch another rally to a new all time high so we'll see how the wave evolves before labeling it. Like I've been saying, a rally to 2150 before a substantial correction would be best but there are 5 waves in place and we could see a turn soon, specially considering oil has lost its TA and headed towards a test of the lows.

On Feb 9th, I posted this:

Oil continues to support the stock market, but now that its 50 DMA was tested today at $53.92 as I had been expecting, we could see a resumption of another bearish wave in oil. Which in turn could be used as an excuse for the stock market to sell off again.

With that said, this bearish in wave in oil could be its last. So once that excuse to sell is over, we could see renewed optimist in equities and consequently new all time highs. The bottom line is the world continues to grow and so will profits. Just look at the Apple money beast, which is technically not even overpriced, even at a $750 billion market cap.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 25




















The market made another all time high today as expected but the move was not as strong as I had been anticipating. Technically speaking, a top at these levels satisfies the 5 wave count from 1980. But I continue to favor a rally towards 2,150 before any significant correction, and by that I mean a move below 2085. The market just needs a good excuse to complete the micro-count and then we can start talking about downside targets.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 24




















All major indexes closed at all time high today and the good times continue. The count remains the same and hopefully we'll see a bullish trust to finish up the (III) wave tomorrow. If we get a decent bullish move, I will probably start building short positions to hedge longs. At some point towards the end of this week or next week we should see a correction to the Trend Average which has now reached 2100. The most likely catalyst for a correction looks like it will be oil, which I am expecting to test its $43.58 (WTI) low since its TA has turned bearish. It will be interesting to see oil make lower lows and it will definitely be a great buy again for another swing trade.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Monday, February 23, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 23




















The market "corrected" as expected on what seems like a (II) of W5. And this lines up well with the 2150 target for the completion of W5 if we get a 5 impulsive count. The oil sell off is not affecting equity markets for now, but perhaps it will be the reason to start of a correction once the 5 waves are completed. The oil excuse worked well in January and it should work again once buying exhausts in stocks.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Friday, February 20, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 20




















"The bottom line is bears had an opportunity to bring down the market in the past 4 weeks but prices are still above the 50 DMA. And now that oscillators have reset, odds favor sentiment swinging towards the bullish side."

It was just two weeks ago that I posted the statement above when the market started trading above its 50 DMA, and now we are seeing what bullish sentiment looks like with new all time highs in all major markets (post-bubble in the Nasdaq). Now, with that in mind, we know better because we are counting waves here. And it seems like the W4 was the quick bearish move early morning and now the market is working on its 5th wave towards 2150, assuming the 5th wave will be at least the length of the 1st wave. The cash market chart has the W1 at 2072 and W2 at 2041, but I favor the wave count that takes into consideration the pre-market action that had W1 at 2050. If we use pre-market prices, W3 looks like it started around in the 2025-2030 cash equivalent and the "look" of the entire structure from 1980 would make more sense. So, I continue to expect new all time highs continuing in the next week or two until the market finishes the count. Once all the buying exhausts, maybe the market will start paying more attention to Oil, Putin, or whatever "alarming" reason to correct once again and bring back a healthy doze of bearish hysteria once again.. works like clockwork!

I will definitely go short once the structure completes, just not sure if to hedge longs or to go net short on my trading portfolio. My longs in that portfolio have been there since October if I remember correctly and up quite a bit. Maybe I'll get me some VXX and make enough money to pay my 2014 tax bill.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 19




















The market made a slight higher all time high today that could technically qualify as the (V) of W3. However, if 2102 is just the 1st wave of this (V), then I see target of 2120. It will depend of whether the market respects the 2090.79 low. Once the W3 is complete, we should see a stronger correction and perhaps one last rally towards 2150 to finish up the 5 wave count that started at 1980. If we get there, that's where I will start shorting to hedge or even take some profit and go net short on my trading account.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw