Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 31




















The correction for the wave yesterday went deeper than allowed under wave rules for a 5 count and the close was under the Trend Average, so now the bias is back to the bearish side. Bears just need a solid catalyst to sell into and break the 2039.69 level to reverse the uptrend. Perhaps the Iran issue will be used as an excuse? But just like it can be used as a reason to sell, it could also provide an excuse to rally and break upper resistance. The best for now is to follow the TA until the next trend solidifies. Since the close was under the TA, I bought some VXX at EOD to hold until the short term trend reverses. And btw, if you want to see an episode of manic-depressive trading, check out VXX's chart for today. It spiked 10%, went down 15%, up 15% then down 10% in less than an hour! I wonder how many people got screwed on these swings. It looks like manipulated move to take out trade stops as the VIX itself wasn't going up down like that during that hour.




















For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Monday, March 30, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 30




















The lower low I was expecting did not come but we are now seeing the expected counter-rally. The higher low from last week leaves the uptrend intact and today's close above the Trend Average and the 50 DMA is bullish, so we might be looking at another change of trend if there is follow through buying. Couple of weeks ago I posted the following when the market topped and bears need to urgently make their case or else we might see a W3 bull run.

"The ideal target level for the coming correction is 2085 before the resumption of the rally, but obviously lower levels are possible as long as 2039 doesn't get re-visited

I originally wanted to go long at a lower low but above 2039 or short at the 50 DMA or the TA, but since the market went into what looks like a W3, there was no point. So instead I am waiting for the 5 count to complete to go short again.  Alternatively, this wave today could be a C wave which keeps bears hopes alive but I lean which ever the Trend Average is pointing at. This is a bull market that just doesn't want to stop and anything other short term top calling is really a gamble. Now, despite being out of the US market completely, I had my best day this year on my long term portfolio. As most of you know, I'm up to my neck in Chinese shares and the vertical rise in the last year has been thrilling yet very scary. I can see the chart pattern but it is hard to count, so I will be relying of what I've learned in the past few years doing the SP500 and apply it to the SSEC. By the time Chinese market cap reaches 100% of GDP, I will be beyond retired and hopefully that day will come later this year or next year. However, this stuff is starting to keep me up at night.


Here is my attempt to pre-count waves when the SSEC first broke out of its multi-year triangle in the summer. At that time there were none, so this was my projection which has now been clearly exceeded.




















For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Friday, March 27, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 27




















The market has continued to trade in what seems like a W4. If the count is correct we will see a lower low early next week in cash or pre-market. One could make an argument for the bearish 5 count being completed at 2045, but I think it'd be better to expect a lower low for trading purposes. The big question is whether the uptrend will hold or will we see a deeper correction. The small bounce today allowed me to sell my longs for a decent profit, so I will be positioning long for another bounce or shorting again next week depending of which levels are tested first. Also, oil might provide a good opportunity next week on a sell off or a rally given the upcoming Iran nuke deal. If Iran's sanctions are lifted, there will be more oil coming into an already oversupplied market so lower lows for oil could be expected.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Thursday, March 26, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 26




















The market started the expected bounce but it wasn't until a lower low was reached, so now the Trend Average has turned bearish and I've changed the labels on the count to reflect a bearish 5 wave count which calls for 2040 to be tested. The Trend Average signal could be whipsawed if we see a strong bullish wave tomorrow but that is not as probable, the bias is now bearish and a break of 2039.69 will likely lead to a bigger correction after a bearish B or W2 wave. If bulls are able to successfully defend the 2040 level, then I expect the market to challenge the Trend Average. I'm still holding the long position from yesterday, which I will sell on the bounce.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 25




















The market ended up breaking support and closing comfortably below the Trend Average with today's sell off. I was hoping to get a nice and predictable Head and Shoulders pattern but that's not what the market had in mind. Instead, the market ended up closing right on support at 2061 and if this level fails to hold, we're looking at the uptrend being tested at 2039. With that said, the correction should not come as a surprise as this had been expected on my post from last week:

"The ideal target level for the coming correction is 2085 before the resumption of the rally, but obviously lower levels are possible as long as 2039 doesn't get re-visited"


Anyway, I ended up going long towards the end of the day as I think a bounce is due. My stop is 2039.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 24




















The market has continued to correct and closed within a few points of the 2085 support level. While the expectation is for the market to test support or the TA, we could see the test in after hours so we could see the market start rallying from here. As it is, there's a clear ABC move from the top and we could see the start of the next bullish wave at any moment, with the condition of course that support and the Trend Average holds.

I ended up closing my shorts at a profit towards the end of the day but not going long in new positions just yet.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Monday, March 23, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 23




















The market started its correction as expected and I continue to expect the Trend Average or the 2085 area to be tested. It's worth noting that a bottom around the 2085 level would form the neckline for an Head and Shoulders pattern, so we could see lower lows if the coming rally forms a right shoulder. I hope I can start taking profits on my short position in the next day or two and go back long again on my trading account.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw