Monday, December 17, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 17






















The selling has continued and the 2532 low I mentioned last week was tested. Right now, it is a make or break time. If the 2530 low is unable to hold selling and support is broken convincingly then we should see the wheels come off this market and probably go into bear market territory in a matter of weeks. However, if bulls are able to keep 2530 as the floor then they have a chance for a rally to form a right shoulder of a multi-month Head and Shoulders with a target of 2872 for the next few weeks. What happens in the next few sessions will be crucial and could gives us an idea of where is 2019 headed. Personally, I am hoping for much lower lows so I can start buying stuff with the money I have been saving.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, December 14, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 14






















I was wrong on assuming prices would make a higher high as the market sold off again and closed just barely under 2600. All the gains from the rally that started in April are now completely gone and prices could end up testing this year's low at 2532 in the next few weeks. There are some in the financial media that are calling for a bottom but I personally wouldn't touch this market. The TA and all major trends are firmly bearish and the risk is there for a bigger sell-off.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Thursday, December 13, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 13






















The market closed flat today but it seems like it is ready to make a higher high in the next day or two. I assume the Trend Average will be tested and only then will we know if the bounce is short-term or will continue for a while. There seems to be a lot of talk of progress being made in the US-China trade talks but I think that's just the explanation the media is using for this bounce. The real reason might be that the market was simply very oversold.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 11






















Prices went again on a rollercoaster ride today but gapping up in the morning before giving up all agains at the end of the day. There is a possible bottoming pattern in place if the 2583 low holds any further selling. However, any bottoms at this point are probably temporary considering the market will probably continue to head down in the longer term.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, December 10, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 10






















The market experienced strong selling earlier today before closing slightly positive at the end of the day. An average person wouldn't think much of it given the fact the market came back but the technical damage done today is substantial and opens the door for much lower lows ahead. In fact, unless the counter-rally is very strong in the next few days, there is a risk 2532 will be taken out in the next week or two and this could bring the type of sell-off we haven't seen in many years. With a death cross in place, the stars are finally lining up for bears.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Thursday, December 6, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 6






















Prices dropped sharply in the morning below support at 2631 before bouncing back towards the end of the day. This new low remains above the 2603 support level I mentioned a few weeks ago, which is the must-break level for bears. I assume we will continue to see prices counter-rally given how oversold the market is but the death cross should occur tomorrow and we could see rallies sold into by traders. Resistance is a 2746 and at 2760.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 4






















I guess the inevitable came sooner than later. The market lost substantial ground today supposedly on doubts about the economy, inverted yield and the trade war. Or maybe, traders are realizing the long term bearish trend is inevitable and sold on strength to bag holders. With the market closing right on the TA, the short-term trend technically remains bullish but the death cross is now imminent in the next few days and the TA should turn bearish soon as well. Anybody buying the rallies is just asking for it at this point.

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, December 3, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 3






















The market has made a higher high and has closed comfortably above the 200 DMA after the weekend trade war truce announcement. If prices are able to use 2760 as support then the death cross will be avoided and arguably the bulls will have a chance at a Christmas rally. However, given the fact that the tariffs remain in place and interest rates are going higher, the inevitable will happen sooner or later.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, November 30, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 30






















Prices have continued to climb ending the week up almost 5% and right on the 200 DMA at 2760. I assume the catalyst for the next substantial market move will be the outcome of trade talks between Trump and Xi in Argentina. But looking at where the moving averages are headed, the death cross seems inevitable unless there is a bullish miracle. Also, I don't think China will yield much to pressure from Trump as the one that has the most to lose is actually Trump and the US. A big increase in tariffs to goods from China will be felt across the board in the US and have a significant inflationary effect. China will see their share of exports to the US shrink but after all, exports to the US are no more than 20% of their total so they are not exactly dependent on US trade. The bottom line is, if the trade war continues, China will see their economy slow down but we will see a recession  sooner than the anticipated in the US. Last but not least, the pressure is on Trump to bring home some sort of deal as he is the one running for re-election in 2 years. Xi is not under that type of pressure so he can drag his feet if he wants to.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 28






















The market posted one of the strongest bullish moves this year today and the close changes the Trend Average to bullish again given the strength of rally. The pattern could turn into cup and handle if the neckline forms in the next few days. I have to say today's move was unexpected given the bearish set up that had been working week for the past few weeks but now that the trend is bullish we should expect further upside until the rally exhaust itself. With that said, the death cross remains highly likely in the next few days and the long term trend will be turning bearish for the first time since 2016.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 27






















The market climbed a bit higher today but again, the close is under the TA and the set up favors downside in the next few sessions. It will take a miracle to reverse the damage and the only thing I can think of would be a resolution to the trade war with China. Personally, I think more tariffs are coming plus a recession in the next year or two so I doubt the trade issue will be resolved at all. You can't force others to buy more from you if you don't have anything they want to buy. The only thing you can do is import less, which is what tariffs can do. In the end, the winners will be the ones that have been patiently waiting for a bear market for all these years.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking



Monday, November 26, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 26






















Prices staged a strong come back today but the market remains bearish biased. If the count posted is correct then we should see a stronger sell-off in the next few sessions to lower lows.

Hope everyone had a good holiday weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking


Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 21






















The market staged a counter-rally today that mostly faded by the end of the session. The lack of strength in the bounce shows lack of bullish confidence and Friday could get ugly if the count posted is correct. Prices are trading well below the main moving averages and a death cross will be imminent if the sell-off continues in the next few sessions.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, November 19, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 19






















"The pattern points to a potential sell-off next week "

The market lost substantial ground today and if 2670 is breached then it has the potential to go much lower. That will also confirm the likelihood of a bearish W3 and a test of the October low at 2603. A death cross is likely in the next couple of weeks unless the bearish pattern place is reversed.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, November 16, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 16






















The market rose to test the TA early in the morning before giving up some of its gains. The pattern points to a potential sell-off next week if today's high at 2746 holds any more upside. If prices rally past resistance then bulls will have some breathing room but for now the market has a bearish set up with substantial downside.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Thursday, November 15, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 15






















The market posted a decent bounce today but remains bearish biased. Prices would have to rally all the way to 2815 to reverse the bearish pattern in place. Maybe we will see increased volatility ahead?

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 14






















The market has made a lower low and most importantly, broke support at 2700 and is now bearish biased again. Also, looking at where the 50 DMA and 200 DMA are, it is highly likely a death crossover will happen in the next week or two unless bulls are able to pull a miracle and recapture the 200 DMA at 2760. If Trump is able to agree on something with China then maybe we might see a year-end really but given the fact that China is not flexible, bad news on tariffs could be used as the catalyst to send prices much lower.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, November 12, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 12






















The market continued its drop today and the potential bullish 5-count has been invalidated. The close was just below the Trend Average and nothing short of a strong rebound will save the trend from turning bearish again in the next few days. It's hard to tell what the count is now due to all the recent volatility but the market is looking tired and continued trade below 2763 will bring a death cross in the next few weeks.

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, November 9, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 9






















Prices continued its pull back today but still remains within W4 parameters so we should see a rally wave to a higher high early next week if the count posted is correct. One factor that has gotten attention lately is oil. It has dropped 20% almost in a straight line since hitting a peak at $76 few weeks ago and it could be interpreted as a sign of slowing global oil demand and not an oil glut. If oil prices continue to drop we could see caution in equities as everyone knows a bear market is just a matter of time and it will happen sooner rather than later.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Thursday, November 8, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 8






















The market seems to have started a minor correction which I am labeling a W4. So, I am assume the rally will resume after gains are consolidated in the next day or two. There might even be an ATH challenge later this month for as long as the TA remains bullish.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 7






















The market staged a strong rally today and even closed over the 2800 level as I thought it would once the 200 DMA was cleared. The next challenge for the bulls is overcoming the 50 DMA at 2833, if that trend is recaptured then the market will be bullish and could attempt a challenge to ATH.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Tuesday, November 6, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 6






















The market has turn the TA bullish and seems ready to challenge the 200 DMA in the next few sessions. I think the market will be using the election results as the catalyst even if we have no idea what the outcome will be at this point. If resistance breaks, prices have a good chance to reach 2800 in the near term.

Short Term Tend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Monday, November 5, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 5






















The market closed up today but remains under the 200 DMA. At the same time, another close above the Trend Average will add a bullish bias to the short-term trend so we could see bulls trying to dictate the pace for the time being. Maybe, there the election results tomorrow will be used as an excuse for the next significant market move.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, November 2, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 2






















The market closed the week in positive territory and came within points if testing the 200 DMA, which was the target for this bounce. What happens in the next few sessions could give us a clue for the remainder of this year. If prices fail to recapture the 200 DMA at 2764 then we will see renewed selling and see the low of the year (2532) tested in the next few weeks. If prices are able to start trading above 2764 then there is still a chance for a year end rally despite all the recent volatility. The trade talks with China could serve as a catalyst for a big move. Considering elections are just a few days away, Trump could be more flexible than usual in announcing some sort of deal with China.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 31






















The counter-rallied has continued and is nearing a test of the 200 DMA. As I said yesterday, the main challenge for bulls is recapturing the 2765. A failure to clear this trend pivot will send the market into another sell-off.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Tuesday, October 30, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 30






















The market staged a good bounce today and if the TA is recaptured then the bottom will be in for this phase of the sell-off and prices could go for a test of the 200 DMA currently at 2765. However, if the 200 DMA is not recaptured then the probability of a bear market will increase substantially.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, October 29, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 29






















Prices dropped to a lower low today at 2603 and unless the market develops a diamond bottom pattern in the next couple days, the sell-off will continue if not intensify. The market is officially in the negative for the year and has the potential of erasing much if not all of 2017 gains if the current wave ends up being a nested bearish W3. Rising interest rates and the impending impact of trade tariffs on prices are good fundamental reasons for the market for the correction to go much lower.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, October 26, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 26






















The selling resumed today and a new low was made at 2628 and puts the index in correction territory. What we will find out soon is whether a bear market is coming (20% decline or more). We should get an idea in the pattern that forms in the next few weeks. I have been waiting for a bear market for a most of the year so maybe it is finally here. I have been accumulating cash since last year so I am hoping to maximize on the opportunity.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking