Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 10th

 

The market has continued its rally to higher highs and it doesn't seem like it wants to stop. We now have a new ATH at 4371 which are NASDAQ levels seen not all that long ago! I have stopped trying to figure out the long term count because there is no reasonable count anymore. So I am just going with the trend and trading it.

Hope everyone is enjoying the summer and staying healthy! I am hoping to go on a vacation soon but I still have some reservations despite being fully vaccinated. Just hope the Delta variant doesn't get out of control and we get more lockdowns again in the fall. Looking at the numbers, under-vaccinated regions will be suffering when it starts to cool down. Maybe the market will use this as an excuse to sell-off? I can't imagine it rallying until the end of the year but who knows at this point.

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 5th

 

This market has more lives than a bunch of cats put together! lol. This thing just refuses to go down. The TA was reversed last week and the trend remains bullish despite waning bullish momentum. Based on seasonality and the fact the market has been rallying for over a year one would assume there should be a decent pullback during the summer. But as I have learned through experience and writing this blog for some many years, it's best not to bet on it! I sold my positions couple of weeks ago for a nice profit and all cash in my trading positions. I know sooner or later there will be a big pullback but this could take time.

In the meantime, I am ready to enjoy my summer and do things I didn't get a chance to do in the last year or so. Hope everyone is staying healthy and making plans for a great summer as well! Sorry, I haven't been writing as often but I am just busy with business and life. But the good thing is everything is well and I have a lot to be grateful for.

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 15th

 

The market finally seems to have found a top but we need to see the TA stay bearish for downside to continue. I would say the key thing to watch is for the counter-rally to exhaust before 4238 is reached. A bullish TA signal or a new ATH would invalidate the current bearish set up. I ended up selling everything I bought last month on Friday for a nice profit and I hope the bearish pattern follows through and we see substantial downside so I can buy back :) Maybe this year, we will get the usual "Sell in May and Go Away!".

Also, it is now officially 2 weeks after my second Pfizer dose so I feel a lot safer and grateful that I made it ok through the last 14 months. I hope everyone is also doing ok and immunized as well. Hopefully, this will be the one and only pandemic we will see in our lifetimes.

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 01st

 

The market managed to make another marginally higher ATH after our last update at 4218 before losing some ground and closing the week flat. Prices saw little volatility during the week and we could be seeing a sideways correction that is consolidating gains before another leg higher. The bias remains bullish and new all-time highs are to be expected as long as the short-term trend remains bullish. With that said, there is now a bearish cross on the daily MACD and we are getting closer to a significant top.

Also, I finally got my second shot of the Pfizer vaccine and I am relieved! hopefully, life will be closer to normal in the next month or two. Just hope there isn't some variant that will screw things up.

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 24th

The market had a volatile week but still managed to make a marginally higher ATH on Friday. It does appear that the rally is on its last legs but until the Trend Average turns bearish, new highs continue to be likely. In fact, if resistance breaks we could see a very strong rally into May. I ended up buying in as planned last week (40% of cash) but will pull out once the trend turns bearish.

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 10th

The market closed the week at a new all-time high and there is no sign of slowing down. If anything, I think we might see a period of extreme bullishness given the vaccine progress (I got mine yesterday) and talk about national infrastructure projects. And if a world-wide pandemic, deep recession and a unhinged President didn't do much to cause an extended bear market, I doubt anything at this point will. Maybe in a few months we will see a big correction but it seems we are headed for a period of extremes. I really didn't want to add to positions but I am going to use dips and TA signals to make the most out of this market by putting into work some of the cash. I have a good amount just sitting there doing nothing so I might as well. I tried buying real estate too but it is ridiculous now to be a buyer so I am not going to even bother at this point.

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 27th

 

Sorry for the long term absence. It was a lot easier for me to be diligent about writing when I had time to sit at Starbucks as this was part of the routine. But since the corona virus hit, my schedule has completely changed and so have my habits. Hopefully, things will be getting back to normal in the next two or three months and I will be back enjoying my routine like old times.

Anyway, this is a market fueled by mania(and low interest rates) at the moment. I originally thought we would revisit last year's low but it seems this will go on for as long as stimulus and interest rates supports it. I have to say that despite the fact that I do believe waves evolve in patterns, these multi-year patterns are simply impossible to predict and fundamental analysis in combination with trend-trading is far more effective. So yes, the market will top eventually, when I have no idea. All I can say is that the trends supports higher highs, especially when the TA is bullish.

I continue to hoard cash and I am looking for investments that make sense. But until I see an opportunity, I am happy just waiting. I've tried buying real estate too recently but it's the same problem too. Low interest rates has created mania/desperation. I just wonder how and when will this end as it's been now 12 years of the same.

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 17th

 

The market has rallied to new highs right after the last update but has traded in a tight range for the last 8 sessions. The TA changed to bullish during the initial rally and has been bullish since but unless there is another leg to the rally soon we could see the trend turn bearish again. The rally is now stretched and there is plenty of talk of a bubble at this point so we could see this thing finally pop soon. I find it amazing that we are in 2011 and we haven't seen any significant bear markets for over a decade, this is now the longest bull market ever! 

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 30th

 

The Trend Average finally turned bearish this week after months of being bullish. The market lost -3.49% for the week and we will see much lower prices as long as the TA remains bearish. The 200 DMA is at 3349 and just a test of this level would make it a 10%+ correction so we'll see if prices get there fast or will start bouncing around. Technically speaking, the selling should have occurred when we had all the election drama and record covid-19 cases so not sure what could send the market into a stronger sell-off other than the fact that it is overbought. I don't think a short-squeeze on Game Stop is enough of a reason to send prices under the 200 DMA but who knows!?

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 23rd

Finally, we have a new President! I am glad we are moving on and getting back to normalcy after 4 years of a clown pretending to be a leader. Hopefully, we will never see anything like this ever again. 

The market has continued to make higher highs and the TA has been right basically since the rally started. I believed prices would resume selling at some point in 2020 but I was wrong about that as it has been a non-stop rally since the sell-off in March. And now that there is an end in sight to the pandemic, the recession and we have a new administration, I don't know what the catalyst would be for a bear market other than the fact that equities are overbought. But I think the next longer term bearish wave will set the earth for the next year or so. If the low in the next correction fails to go below the one last year at 2200 then basically prices will continue to rally to new highs. I have all this cash on the sidelines so I hope to see that bigger correction soon!

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 10th

What a week! Despite all the political turmoil and what basically amounts to an attempted coup by the loser, the market managed to reach a new all-time high! And this is not even taking into account the record of people getting sick and dying by the thousands.. There seems to be a disconnect somewhere but it is what it is. The TA has been bullish all along and pointing in the right direction and continues to favor higher highs. With that said, the market is very overbought and there should be a change of trend soon. Hopefully, it won't be some violent act related to the loser but after another impeachment, he might just convince enough people to do more stupid things.

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 4th

Happy New Year! I am glad 2021 is finally here and I hope we will be able to put the pandemic behind us in a few months. These next few months are going to be tough but at least there is light at the end of the tunnel. That and the fact we won't have a man-child running the country anymore!

Anyway, the market closed the year at an all-time high as expected but started the year with a sell-off. The market is overbought at this point and any strong sell-off shouldn't come as a surprise. What has been surprising is how resilient the market has been in light of the pandemic and the clown show in the White House. I see some Elliott Wave counts that call for a sell-off very soon to challenge last year's low at 2200 but to be frank, I am not sure how valid are those predictions as this seems like a long-term W3 with no end in sight. But who knows? maybe we'll see a bear market year after more than a decade of waiting for one! I got lucky in business and the stocks I bought in China years ago but I will continue to be patient for an opportunity to get back in the US market. I am sitting on quite a bit of cash just waiting to be deployed so maybe we'll see an entry soon in the US?

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 19th

What a year it has been. I remember last December I had just come back from a trip to the UK and was really looking forward to a great 2020! And it was around this time last year that I first heard of the corona virus in China and how it could spread abroad. I thought it was going to be like SARS or the H1N1 flu but it turned out to be the worst pandemic we have seen in 100 years. One would think, an event of cataclysmic proportions would have caused a 12-year bull market to crash but instead, the market is up almost 15% this year!! One would assume looking at this that bear market corrections do not exist anymore and are a thing of the past.

Anyway, I don't even want to predict what is going to happen in 2021 with the market because it has become impossible to do so. But one thing I do know from doing this for so long is that everything comes in cycles. Whether the next cycle will be a big downturn or a temporary one will remain to be seen but I am deploying all the cash I've been accumulating in the next bullish cross (assuming a bearish cross will come in the next few months). I have seen several Elliott Wave counts that call for a big turn soon that could create many opportunities and we'll see if they finally come to fruition. Whatever the case, staying with the trend will be the safest thing to do. 

I hope 2021 will bring normality to our lives once again. I am already looking forward to travelling and catching up on so many things I had to put off this year. If there is anything positive about 2020 is that I have learned to appreciate normality!

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 5th

The market closed the week at a new all-time high and it seems unstoppable at this point. I don't think anyone could have predicted the market to be at an all-time high at this point during the very peak of the pandemic and a damaged economy. And that's not even taking into account how long this rally has been going on for. Technically speaking, we are still on the same leg that started in 2009, possibly the longest and expansive wave ever. And while I think (and hope) we will get a good correction to take advantage of lower prices, I am not so sure we will see a multi-year bear given the persistently low-interest environment keeping up asset prices. Maybe it will come when none of us are expecting it as usual.

I have a lot of cash sitting on the side at this point. About 35% of my total liquid assets to be exact. I will get into an interest yielding ETF once we get a correction and then re-assess if I should be more aggressive as 2021 progresses.

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 21st

 

The market closed the week slightly negative at -0.77% after reaching a new ATH last Friday. If prices continue to fall then the TA will likely turn bearish this coming week. Looking at the waves from the longer-term perspective, there are enough waves to call the rally finished so there is a chance we could see a sharp turn-around soon. At the same time, given that all the bad news are out (Record COVID cases, a President who refuses to leave, recession, etc), I am not sure what could bring down the market substantially at this point. In a way, the biggest surprise is how well the stock market has performed despite all the challenges. I just hope it won't be the loser doing something even more unthinkable and stupid to wreck the economy or the political system in this country. 

The good news is that the vaccines are coming so hopefully normality will come back very soon! I am going to catch up on traveling for sure.

Short Term Trend = Bulliss trend being challenged

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 11th

The market has been able to reverse course again and turn all bullish again. This technically happened last week and now the market has reached a new all-time high which invalidates all previous bearish set ups and positions the market for further gains if the TA remains bullish. The technical setup prior to the elections was pointing to a strong sell-off and despite the fact that the loser has refused to concede (as predicted), the markets are choosing to overlook this problem. Whether this will turn out to be a "head fake" or the beginning of a sustained rally for the next couple of months remains to be seen but for now, trends are firmly bullish.

I continue to hoard cash and will only deploy when the time is right. There might be upside to be missed but I continue to believe there will be strong selling once the current vaccine euphoria subsides and it's better to be patient at this point.

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 31st

 

The market lost -5.41% for the week and closed well below the 50 DMA at 3402. Failure to recapture lost ground this coming week will just add selling pressure and will likely push prices to test the 200 DMA at 3129. The most likely scenario, if the Trend Average is not recaptured soon, is a severe substantial selloff in the next week or two and the renewal of the bear market. I assume the next few months are going to be rough for the market and the country as a whole. But at least, hopefully, we won't have a clown as a president anymore. The potential for conflict and violence in the US is high given all the political rhetoric but I think in the end we will get through this. 

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 27th

 

Last week I added this note below on EWA:

"The market has struggled in the past few sessions and the short-term trend has turned bearish. This could be the very beginning of a significant top if prices fall below the 3400 level. However, if the market is able to turn around and make a higher high then it has a clear shot at making new all-time highs before the end of the multi-month rally."

The market has lost more ground since last week and now prices are below the 3400 level I mentioned so the probability of a major selloff looks increasingly likely soon, possibly this or next week. I can't imagine the clown actually conceding like a normal person after the results so I am going to assume he will be the cause for this coming selloff and bear market. The question is how bad is it going to get. Will he call on his supporters to start revolting or worse? will the national guard/military get involved? it sounds like a far-fetched scenario but considering what we have seen in the last 4 years, this scenario sounds likely. And obviously, we are also going to see horrible virus numbers so maybe that could move the market as well but I think the main cause will be the loser himself.

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 17th

 

The market started the week strong and came within a few dozen points of an ATH but it struggled to hold on to gains for the rest of the week. If prices fail to make higher highs this coming week then it could turn bearish and start to sell-off substantially. But for now, the TA remains bullish and I will assume higher highs until 3340 is breached. We're a couple of weeks away from the elections and results should move the markets substantially. Also, the coronavirus is going to continue to surge to numbers not seen since the national peak in the spring and I wonder if the markets will continue to ignore the impact as it has done for the last few months. 

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 12th

 

The market has continued to make higher highs as expected and I think an ATH is in the cards this or next week as long as the Trend Average remains bullish. I wouldn't be surprised if prices go much higher if a viable coronavirus vaccine is announced before the elections. Whatever the case, I think the event that will be the excuse for a massive selloff will be the outcome of the elections. The Trump campaign is showing signs of desperation and the clown himself will refuse to acknowledge a loss. I think anyone who has been paying attention to what this man has done or said in the last 4 years would bet this is the most likely scenario and this will be uncharted territory for this country. Also, I wanted to add that USPS delays are a big problem and I wonder how this will factor into the result for the elections. I can tell you for a fact, that 20% of USPS First Class and Priority mail is getting lost or delayed for several weeks (normally, it takes 2-3 business days). I am not sure if this is particular to my region (California) or if it's nationwide. I send several thousand packages per month and the 20% loss/extremely late rate for the last few weeks doesn't seem to be getting better. So, unless ballots are given special handling (as they should), I don't see how we're going to have accurate results on Nov 3rd. The next few weeks are going to be interesting.

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors