Tuesday, August 21, 2012

A Good Day

The market challenged and broke 1422 today exactly as I had posted yesterday and now that bulls have proven their case, the market seems to have started a correction. What type of correction this will be remains to be seen but let me make it clear that trends have been pointing up for weeks and if the market finds support at the 50 day MA, then the market will likely go much higher. The market could also try going for the 200 day MA just like it did for 1 day in the summer, but first I'll be watching the 50 day MA currently at 1365.

Also, I wanted to post this comment I made 4 months ago when the market was around 1400 and before the market started its correction. All the selling, bearishness, "P3", etc. started about the time I posted this comment. And what the market did during all of these 4 months was just that.. a test of the 200 day MA when it was in the 1280's for a single day and then resumed its uptrend.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 April 2012 4 months ago
Ideal would be a test of the 200 day MA

I try not to rely too much on long term wave counts, oscillators, divergences, sentiment, patterns, moon, sun, mars, etc. as the trend blows all of them away (as shown during this correction and the other ones before that). This has kept me in the right side of the market and out of trouble since I first started following my system back in 2010. In fact, during this summer correction I've seen many respectable names and many sites failing in their forecasts. Prominent market commentators such as Art Cashing, Dough Kass, Faber, etc. in addition to many sites with really good looking charts and great typo-free commentary somehow "missed" the rally. But I guess these are the types of environments where a system is "proven" so today I get some extra joy for knowing I've got something that really does work :)

Long Term Portfolio: 100% Long
Short Term Trading Strategy: Hedged with VXX as of 08/16/2012

1 comment:

  1. thanks a lot I have been following your posts and I must admit that u have been right about the pullback from 1422 and the follow up rally more than any expert includings zacks that i have as a subscription. hats off to u