Monday, August 13, 2012

Coming Market Breakout

The market managed to extend its sideways corrections for the fourth consecutive session in a tight range. And I don't remember the last time this happened, the closest thing I could find was a somewhat similar period in February where the market broke out of its four day range and went up close to 30 points. However, the difference is the market is coming out of a 4 month correction whereas in February the market had been in a strong rally for 2 months. So I think the coming bullish breakout (I'm 90% sure it will breakout of this range to the upside) should be closely watched. The lack of sellers in the market means traders are no longer bearish as they were a few weeks ago. And the lack of buyers just means there are a bunch of people who missed the rally and they might just jump in desperation should the market breakout strongly. So a breakout with strong volume will mean the market is going north of 1450. The VIX has crashed to its 52 week low and the only fear left is the one of people who don't want to miss the rally (or being caught short). I originally wanted to hedge my longs overnight on the next bullish wave but now it's probably better to wait and just keep riding the TA. It'll be interesting if tomorrow we get another sideways correction.. the longer the wood dries, the more intense the fire.

Long Term Portfolio: 100% Long
Short Term Trading Strategy: Shorting intraday extremes, closing same day

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