Friday, August 10, 2012

1422 to be challenged next week?

The market managed to extend the triangle yet another day and in doing so continuing it's sideways correction, which is typical of Wave 4s. So I think odds favor a somewhat strong bullish wave early next week given the fact that there was close to zero bearish advance during this correction time. This is the main reason I avoid shorting W4s when the trend is going up as they can just tease you and then really screw you (and not in a good way). It's hard to tell just how the next bullish wave will evolve but if we go by my TA + 2(VIX) formula then the market should challenge the 1422 high next week but first it will have to overcome the 1415 resistance level. And should this wave come to reality, I'll probably load up on some shorts/volatility and hold overnight to hedge as we should then get a proper Fib correction after that wave. So I'm hoping for the 5th to appear, if not then the market will be testing the TA early next week and that will be a time to re-evaluate some of the long positions.

Have a great weekend!

Long Term Portfolio: 100% Long
Short Term Trading Strategy: Shorting intraday extremes, closing same day

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