Monday, February 27, 2012


For a few minutes this morning I thought the market was finally going to start a correction but instead it tested the trend again and bounced right off. So the top is definitely not in and it seems like we will see 1376 after all. I've run out of wave counts and can only track the minute counts, also the megaphone top is out. This rally has been a good example of technical analysis oscillators and wave counts failing to predict an intermediate top and goes to show the limitations of all these tools. However, the one indicator that has been solid is the Trend Average and that's the one that has been saving me from bad trades. Considering I've been mostly making bearish bets on a strong bullish wave since January, having a 89% winning rate out of 20 trades is pretty damn good. Today I sold my other half of the VIX and closed shorts when it was clear to me the trend average was going to be recaptured. And should we continue with this bullish gaps/runs, I will continue to short them as sooner or later the trend will break. It's just a matter of time.. and patience.

Today's trades were logged as follows:


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