Tuesday, February 21, 2012

1337 or 1376?

So Greece got its bailout and European markets sold on the news. However, the US market battled hard to stay above 1360 and technically speaking it got to 1370 (in the cash market equivalent). And now it's time to see if the much anticipated correction is coming finally or we are just correcting a little to launch on a final wave to the 1376. Looking at the chart I see the market running into strong resistance at 1370 in a very overbought condition, so odds favor a sell off from these levels. But as I said last week, overbought can get more overbought and no matter what tools or wave labels I use, if the market wants to continue higher it will. But this run up will be limited, of that I am sure. And the best thing one can do as a trader is to play defense at this time. I am maintaining my 1355 short and early morning I executed the same plan as Friday, I bought volatility and then cashed out. And should we get more gaps up, I will continue to do the exact same thing. So today I made a good trade (could have made more had I not fallen asleep) and the portfolio is looking as follows:


Lastly, I wanted to add that on the bearish wave that started today should give us a clue on the next wave. If the wave fails to make a new low or stay above 1337, higher prices or test of the 1370 top is very likely.

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