Friday, February 14, 2014

SP 1960 by April?

Another day, another rally. What started as an expected counter rally has turned into a relentless rally led by tech, which implies a risk on attitude. The reasons that started the sell off few weeks ago where really a non-issue (China's PMI, emerging markets) but at the same time the market has reached a bullish extreme and it is very short term overbought. With today's rally we now have a neckline for an IHS that targets 1963 if the pattern completes. Coincidentally, I was doing some calculations on the 5 waves to 1826 and if I were to count that waves as a W1 then we would have a target of 1960-80. However, I still believe we are on the 5th wave from the structure from 1737 because of the NYMO chart and I expect (and hope) the 50 DMA/TA will be tested on the correction. And btw I wasn't expecting the 50 DMA to get tested immediately, I meant to say the 50 DMA will be tested once the entire structure completes which could be today or early next week. There is resistance at 1843 and after that it will be the all time high at 1850.

I ended up selling my short term longs to position trade around 1840 and I'm still holding VXX, so I am technically 100% short now on my short term portfolio. I figured the market will be running out of 5th wave suckers early next week.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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