Thursday, February 20, 2014

Bounce or Rally?

The market continued its sell off overnight but by the time the market opened it had recovered almost 10 points from its pre-market low and then continued to rally towards the end of the day. The move on the cash market looks like an ABC that bottomed exactly at the micro Head and Shoulder's target of 1824 and the Trend Average was tested in pre-market but not in the cash market. So the options I am looking at are either a complex correction with another wave of selling to test the rising 50 DMA or another bullish leg that will break the all time high. I am still not all that convinced with the last two minor corrections being enough for a base for the market to mount a sustainable rally and ideally we would get a deeper correction before a stronger bullish wave. But obviously I will not be fighting the trend, specially now that it's all green.

Now my trading.. I was hoping to lock in profits at any opening below yesterday's close and with the way futures down a decent amount it looked like a done deal. But futures started to reverse early morning and unfortunately I was asleep when the market hit the H&S target. So now I am stuck with VXX and hoping we will get a complex correction. If the market makes an all time high then I will stop out at a loss.. TD Ameritrade stopped providing trigger alerts and I wish there was some sort of service that would actually give me a call to wake me up! if anybody knows of anything like this please let me know, I am sure I'm not the only one in the west coast that could use this service.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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