Friday, April 29, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 29




















The sell off continued today and there is enough bearish momentum for a 50 DMA test next week. The micro-count posted would be invalidated on trade above 2086.09 but it will take a strong counter-rally go get that high. Perhaps some panic selling will actually benefit the bullish case, so a test of the 200 DMA would not be all that bad at all. Hopefully there will be lower levels next week so I can start building long positions.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Thursday, April 28, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 28




















The counter-rally topped at 2099.89 and it lines up well as a B or W2 wave. We should find out if this will be a minor zig zag correction or a more sustained correction in the next few sessions.  If the current bearish wave turns out to be a C wave and it equals Ax1.618 in length, we will see a test of the the 50 DMA around 2040. I will go long around those levels with a stop at the 200 DMA.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 27




















The market showed resiliency today by managing to close again above the TA despite technology dragging the overall market. The current wave could arguably be a B wave or a W2 with the likelihood of downside in the next few sessions. However, given the short term trend is bullish and the bullish pattern in the minute count, I wouldn't bet on it until 2077.52 support gets breached. Market sentiment has shifted substantially in the last 2 months and the long term trend has now turned bullish as well, so this could be the early stages of a multi-month bull run as long as lows remain intact.

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 26




















The market rallied at the open as I had been expecting but gains were somewhat reversed for the rest of the day. As I said yesterday, we could see a sideways move or a test of 2111 before another corrective wave so I'm assuming if there is a rally tomorrow it won't last for too long. With APPL selling off after hours, there's enough of an excuse to bring down the market to 2077.

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Monday, April 25, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 25




















The TA was tested again today but the close was above the TA. So I assume there will be a bullish wave coming as soon as tomorrow. We could see a sideways move before more downside or a rally towards the 2111 level before going back down. Also, there are now official Golden Crosses on the DJIA and the SP500 so the long term trend will very likely change to the bullish side this week. I will go long on a substantial pullback.

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Friday, April 22, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 22




















Another low was made at the test of the Trend Average today before prices climbed back to close the day marginally positive. If the TA is maintained next week, then we will likely see the ATH challenged. But if the short term bias turns bearish, then we should see a pullback to the 2040 area. I closed my shorts for a small profit and looking to either short again at resistance or go long on deeper pullback. Also, the golden cross is imminent so this might be the start of a multi-month bullish run as long as it doesn't get whipsawed.

Lastly, RIP Prince. Seems like a lot of 80's musicians have passed lately. Madonna better take care of herself!

Have a great weekend!

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Thursday, April 21, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 21




















The market went into a correction today but it still leaves open the door to new highs as the low did not even test the Trend Average. I think there are enough waves for a stronger pullback but given current sentiment, bulls might be able to mount an ATH challenge if they can get past 2116. I closed my shorts towards the end of the day and will buy back the position as it gets closer to 2111. Last but not least, a golden cross is imminent and that event normally favors long term upside. Obviously, as any lagging indicator, the golden cross does get whipsawed (like it did in December) but historically speaking probability favors the bullish side substantially.

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.


Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 20




















I had issues with laptop so I couldn't add this update earlier. Basically, I was wrong on the top being 2104 as the market seems headed towards the next resistance level at 2116. There is a wedge like pattern in place so I'll assume prices are about to find a top in the next session or two. Oil has regained strength again and seems headed towards $50, so there will be enough of an excuse for equities to go for the ATH with or without a correction. I wonder how many people still believe this is a "bear market" at this point.

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 19




















As stated ast week "If we go by wave length, the ideal bottom would be around 2075-2077 before a W5 to challenge resistance at 2104". The count posted has followed the projected path more or less by bottoming at 2073 and possibly topping today at 2104. I'd like to see confirmation the 5 count is over by a test of the Trend Average in the next couple of sessions. However, if 2104 gets taken out then we could be seeing a sub-divided 5th that could reach much higher. As much as most people think the market is random or manipulated, the market tends to follow a path most of the time. I used the same calculation for this micro-W4 as I did for the LT-W4 target of 1820 last year for the LT chart and so far the recent 1810 bottom is looking increasingly like LT-W4.


For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Monday, April 18, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 18
















The market made a higher high as expected despite the sell off in oil last night. A challenge to the 2104 level would be ideal but technically speaking there is a 5th wave in place already and we could see a test of the rising Trend Average in the next few sessions. The main question is now where the market will make a deeper correction or if the correction to 2033 was the pullback for the entire structure from 1810. I ended up buying some VXX towards the EOD but I'll probably cover in a TA test of if the market gets past 2104. As I've been saying for the last couple of months, this could turn into a full rally (technically it has already) and one has to be very careful with short positions and specially if buying VXX.

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.


Friday, April 15, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 15




















The market went into a correction that seems like a micro-W4 as expected and the bottom today was in the range I mentioned yesterday. So if all goes according to the count posted, we should see the 2104 resistance level challenged on a bullish leg early next week. The likelihood of the long term trend turning bullish is increasing by the day at these levels and bears basically need a miracle at this point to reverse all recent gains.

I am also posting the long term chart to add perspective of what the market is most likely doing. I haven't updated the labels since last year. Once there is confirmation for LT W5, I will make calculations on its target range.





















Here is what this count looked like 3 years ago. Back then, most people were bearish and wave counters were waiting for a crash (which is basically the same as today). Nothing has changed, bears will always be blinded by pessimism and most will not be able to see a rally even when it's right in front of them. There's a saying in Spanish that goes "No hay peor ciego que el que no quiere ver" that sums it up, which translates into "There is no worse blind man than the one who doesn't want to see".





















Have a great weekend!

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 14




















A higher high was made today as expected and it looks like there will be more to come after a micro-W4 correction. If we go by wave length, the ideal bottom would be around 2075-2077 before a W5 to challenge resistance at 2104. It's been almost a year since the market topped at 2134 and perhaps we will finally see new highs in the next few weeks. Personally, I am waiting for China's SSEC to start rallying hard again so I can get to my retirement on time :)

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 13




















The market rallied past its most recent high and the only bearish pattern that was in place (Head and Shoulders) has now been invalidated. So now the bias turns bullish again and the wave that started at 2033 has a good chance of challenging the next resistance level at 2104. I am assume as the market goes higher more bears are going to throw in the towel and cover their short positions, which will only help the market go even higher.

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.


Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 12




















The market has rallied back above the Trend Average and this correction is starting to look like sideways consolidation as oscillators have been resetting. Still, lower lows would be ideal as it would create a good base for another rally to take place. But as I have been mentioning, strength in oil prevents equities from selling off substantially and oil's current momentum serves as a perfect excuse for a shallow pullback in stocks. I was hoping to see the 50 DMA (1980) tested but if this continues, the 200 DMA (2013) will be a more realistic target. I am glad I closed all my shorts and now I am just hoping to get in long on a good set up. I should add that most wave counters are expecting 1810 to be tested but not me as I see the long term trend with a good chance of turning bullish in the next 2-3 weeks.

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term TrendBearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.



Monday, April 11, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 11




















The market rallied early morning to challenge its Friday's high but ended up reversing despite the rally attempt. I mentioned last week oil was going to keep rallying (closed over $40 today) and strength in energy shares have probably prevented a stronger sell off. However, I favor continued downside to test and most likely break last week's low at 2033.

For an more elaborate analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com The current rally in equities and oil was called almost perfectly over a month ago on that site.


Short Term TrendBearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Friday, April 8, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 8




















The market counter-rallied today as I suspected and fell short of yesterday's high before heading back down and closing under the Trend Average. This close turns the short term trend bearish and this increases the chances of lower lows next week. With that said, oil has been rallying and this has provided an excuse for equity buyers to come out. Since there is a high possibility oil is headed back towards a test of its most recent high, it's hard to see how bearish momentum could gain speed while energy shares rally. Also, I found the bounce off the 2044 support a bit suspicious as this leaves a bullish set up going into next week. So I turned cautious towards the EOD and ended up closing the rest of my shorts to avoid any surprises on Monday. I'll re-short if resistance levels are tested again or go long on a test of the 200 DMA/2022.

Have a great weekend!

For an more elaborate analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com The current rally in equities and oil was called almost perfectly over a month ago on that site.


Short Term TrendBearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.