Thursday, March 29, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 29






















Prices have bounced from yesterday's lows but the high today is a lower high. Unless we see more upside soon we will see selling resume. For now, I think there are a lot of traders in a wait and see mode as this could just turn out to be a correction or the actual rollover into a bear market.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 28






















The market got very close to its 200 DMA again but remains trading above it. However, unless there is a strong rally tomorrow the recent low at 2585 is likely to be tested or broken during a selloff in the next session or two. The 50 DMA is starting to descend and bulls are running out of time. I will be on the sidelines saving cash in the meantime.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 27






















The market reversed most of its counter-rally gains today and looks headed for a possible test or break of the 200 DMA in the next day or two. It's too early to make a call but if the 200 DMA breaks, we might see sustained selling for several weeks or months. The key level to watch after a 200 DMA break will be the Feb low at 2532. There will be long opportunities for counter-rallies and I might jump on some of them but for now the assumption is for lower lows to come so no rush to get in.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, March 26, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 26






















The market staged a strong counter-rally today but remains well below the TA. If prices are able to reach 2694 then the most bearish option would be invalidated. Also, if the 200 DMA test low of 2585 is able to hold the next bearish wave then there is a chance the market is making a triangle pattern that will make prices trade sideways for several weeks. For now, the assumption is there will be lower lows ahead.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, March 23, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 23






















A few days ago I wrote;

"Looking at the daily chart, the market is ready for a big sell-off and I think we will see the 200 DMA tested again in the next few weeks." 

The market did as expected but the test of the 200 DMA at 2585 came earlier than anticipated as the index reached it at the close of today's session. Which means, things can and probably will get a lot uglier next week. The next key support level is at 2532 but if the count posted is correct, we will see lower lows before any substantial bounce. If the selling was purely technical like the selling in February it would be easier to predict. But this time is different because this trade approach by Trump will damage sentiment, cause inflation, retaliation, etc. and eventually even a recession. So while I am not sure where this will end, I think all gains since the Nov 2016 low will be erased sooner rather than later. I'd like to see Trump tweet about that. Have a great weekend!


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Thursday, March 22, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 22






















The market sold off as expected and it looks headed towards the 200 DMA currently at 2584 earlier than anticipated. I was only looking at charts yesterday when I saw the bearish pattern but with the announcement of the trade tariffs against China today it now makes even more sense. Whatever benefits the tax cuts will bring, they will be negated by a trade war with China. This could have worked maybe 15-20 years ago but when you slap tariffs on a country that will become the world's largest importer in the next 4-5 years, it is just short sighted and highly damaging to US economic interests. It's the government's job to ensure other markets are equally as open as ours and encourage our companies to do better. But when you start by looking at a number (trade deficit) and try to cut it just because you don't like it, it's similar to pointing out millionaires and coming up with a plan to make their wealth closer to that of the average citizen by taxing them more. This is capitalism not socialism but orange face does whatever he wants, so let's now see him take credit for the market downturn.


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking


Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 21






















Prices made a higher high for the counter-rally but gains were erased by the end of the session and we should see selling tomorrow to test and possible break support at 2695. Looking at the daily chart, the market is ready for a big sell-off and I think we will see the 200 DMA tested again in the next few weeks. I sold my oil position today and back to all cash in my trading account.



Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 20






















Prices continued its counter-rally today but there weren't any sizable gains and we could see selling resume in the next day or two. My guess is support in the 2695-2700 area will not hold and prices will head down to the next level of support around 2650 level.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, March 19, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 19






















The count I was following was invalidated at the breach of support at 2732 and it seems we are looking at a new and possibly stronger bearish wave coming. It is rare to see a major leading index like the NASDAQ make an all time high and not the SP500, this a sign that other sectors are underperforming and pulling down the broader market. The TA turned negative with today's close and the support levels to watch are 2695 and 2650, if these levels fail to hold the selling we should see 2532 re-visited in the next week or two.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Thursday, March 15, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 15






















Not much to add today. Still waiting for one more bullish wave to materialize and finish up the count.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 14




















The market has continued to retrace and a few more points of downside and the count posted will be invalidated at 2732. Still, the bias remains bullish and I expect higher highs ahead as long as the 5 count remains in place.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, March 12, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 10






















Prices made a higher high today before going into what seems like a W4. I assume prices will go above 2800 before the count completes and then continue higher until a challenge to all-time highs. It's hard to predict when the rally will be over but this is lining up well for a sell in May event. Perhaps, we will see a fast sell-off again at that time but without the bounce.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, March 9, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 9






















Prices broke out of range as expected and ended the session challenging the 2789 mentioned yesterday. If resistance at 2789 is broken, we should see prices rally towards all-time highs at 2872 in the next week or two. The window of opportunity for the bears was earlier in the week when Gary Cohn resigned and given how well the market has held up, looks like the market could rally all the way until April or May before any substantial selling.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Thursday, March 8, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 8






















The market closed higher today but remains in the resistance zone. If the bias correct, we could see a breakout as soon as tomorrow or Monday. The next bullish target would be the 2789 high made couple of weeks ago if the market is able to start maintain closes above the 50 DMA at 2739.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 7






















The market attempted to sell off earlier today but it looks like the bulls are showing some unexpected resiliency. I am actually surprised the support level at 2700 held so well and the close was bullish enough to turn the Trend Average positive again (but barely). So while the sentiment seems to be bearish, the bulls are not going without a fight. The coming tariff announcement will be the next excuse for a substantial move.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Tuesday, March 6, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 6






















Yesterday I mentioned the market needed an excuse to sell-off and I just received a text from CNBC reporting Gary Cohn (Chief economic adviser to the WH) has resigned. So despite the slightly positive close today, we should see a substantial selling tomorrow. Gary Cohn's resignation gives the appearance of complete chaos in the White House given the numerous resignations and scandals in the last year, which is not good for stocks or the economy. Jeb Bush said it during the debates and he has been right all along, Trump is the chaos president and we have 3 more years of it too. That is of course, Trump gets impeached or overthrown.

Anyway, going back to the market. I expect the 200 DMA to be tested again but the key level will be the 2532 low I have been mentioning.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Monday, March 5, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 5






















The market tested and closed over the Trend Average as expected and we should see selling pressure resume in the next sessions or two. The big question is whether there will be enough bearish momentum to bring prices down to test the 2532 low. The market just needs an excuse and there are a few to choose from at the moment.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Friday, March 2, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 2




















The market made lower lows as expected and the 5 micro-count seems finalized at 2647. I assume the Trend Average will be tested early next week and if not recaptured, we should see another bigger sell-off later next week. Maybe Trump can tweet something over the weekend (other than Alec Baldwin) that will save the day, not.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Thursday, March 1, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 1























Key support at 2697 broke today and the bullish count has been invalidated. While one could argue the uptrend is still in place until the low at 2532 is broken, selling pressure is likely to pick up in the next few sessions and could send prices to test the 2532 low if not lower into the 2400s before any significant bounce. I went long after the initial bounce from support but ended stopping out at a loss when support was breached.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking