Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Market Update

The market continued its relentless rally today and it is getting to the point where the waves are about to exhaust, the chart looks as if a rocket took off. If anyone was doubting the wave from 1737 was not impulsive, I think today clears that up. The best we can do now is shuffle the labels a bit and assume 1792 was the actual (IV). The micro count I mentioned yesterday with a target of 1804 was not the final 5th as I had assumed but rather W1 of what I think is the final 5th. If we go by what the cash market printed, the target for the 5th should be in the 1820's. However, if I count pre-market prices then the target is actually higher as this W1 topped at a higher price and the projection would be in the 1830's. Whatever the case, I am planning to trade mostly long now as unless there is some sort of bearish miracle or another manufactured crisis, the index is probably going for the all time high after a correction (timewise or pricewise).

I ended buying VXX as planned but since I was wrong in my presumption of the final 5th, I bought it way too early in the low 1800's. However, I did good on my position trade on my longs and if the market decides to go for the 1830's, I'll probably position trade again and hold a net short (VXX) position. I will be selling VXX hopefully at a profit on the pullback to either the Trend Average or the 50 DMA, which I suspect will have many people jumping in.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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