Friday, February 7, 2014

Market Update

The jobs report moved the markets as I had been expecting but I was wrong on getting a good report based on the ISM. The numbers came way below expectations but the markets rallied as if the report had actually surprised to the upside. It goes to show the market does what it wants to do at times and news have nothing to do with it. The close was very bullish and I see a 5 count complete from 1737 based on my original "normal wave" projections. However, one could argue the top today was just the W3 with more upside to come after a correction that will likely challenge the 50 DMA at 1809.  Also, the market could be setting up an Inverse Head and Shoulders or a Cup and Handle (take your pick) that targets an all time high at 1858. So early next week we have to watch how the market corrects, if the market hesitates with downside and finds support before 1768-72 then we will have a very bullish pattern and mostly likely the Int Trend will reverse to the bullish side. As it is the Trend Average turned neutral today and will go positive if the market fails to close under it in the next session or two. With that said, the Int Trend remains firmly negative and in the ideal world this completed wave is just the X wave and we will get another ABC to test the 200 DMA. Also, from the "look" perspective, the LT Int W4 should go on for a few months not just a few weeks as all the bullishness needs to be worked out to have a good solid base to rally from.

I ended up buying VXX at resistance so I am hoping for a decent correction starting Monday or Tuesday but I'll be ready to jump ship at a moment's notice as this thing could drop 10% in a blink of an eye (just as it did in the last 3 days).

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Neutral leaning bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors. 

No comments:

Post a Comment