Thursday, February 13, 2014

Correction to 50 DMA again?

The  market finally gapped down for a change today only to test the 50 DMA and rally again to put in another high for this wave. I was focusing on the W4 triangle yesterday but I should have added the possible ABC move to the 50 DMA, which is what happened in the morning. Now that we have this ABC move from what I consider an SA3 top, I am more confident the rally today is the 5th wave. One could make the argument that the ABC today was for a W2 but I think chances of that are slim as I think there needs to be a deeper correction first. If you look at the NYMO chart I posted, you can see there hasn't been a rally like this in at least a year as the index went from the red line (oversold) to the blue one (overbought) without much of a break. Once the market finds a top, I will be watching the 50 DMA again as a target for a neckline of an Head and Shoulders, given the fact that people and computers bought at that level today I suspect they will do it again on the coming correction.

I got lucky today in that I actually woke up around 6:30 am and when checking the market I noticed the market had not been able to gap down below the 50 DMA, so I sold the VXX I had to position trade at the very bottom and then bought it bought towards the end of the day 3% cheaper, so not that much underwater anymore. If the market does what I think it will do, I will be doing the same exact trade.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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