The market finally gapped down for a change today only to test the 50 DMA and rally again to put in another high for this wave. I was focusing on the W4 triangle yesterday but I should have added the possible ABC move to the 50 DMA, which is what happened in the morning. Now that we have this ABC move from what I consider an SA3 top, I am more confident the rally today is the 5th wave. One could make the argument that the ABC today was for a W2 but I think chances of that are slim as I think there needs to be a deeper correction first. If you look at the NYMO chart I posted, you can see there hasn't been a rally like this in at least a year as the index went from the red line (oversold) to the blue one (overbought) without much of a break. Once the market finds a top, I will be watching the 50 DMA again as a target for a neckline of an Head and Shoulders, given the fact that people and computers bought at that level today I suspect they will do it again on the coming correction.
I got lucky today in that I actually woke up around 6:30 am and when checking the market I noticed the market had not been able to gap down below the 50 DMA, so I sold the VXX I had to position trade at the very bottom and then bought it bought towards the end of the day 3% cheaper, so not that much underwater anymore. If the market does what I think it will do, I will be doing the same exact trade.
Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish
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