Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Possible targets for correction

The market bounced as expected in what I am labeling a W4 and I think we will see a lower low after it completes. If we were to go by wave proportions, assuming today's high was the peak for W4 then we would have 1732 as a target for W5. So the market will need to extend its 5th wave or perhaps put in another W4 and reach the 1710 level. Also, I was looking at the Long Term chart I posted last night and using the same set of calculations I used when I first projected targets in May 2013. I see the ideal target LT W4 at 1680 as the end of the correction. However, I prefer 1600-40 if this turns out to be a double ZZ (confirmation if 200 DMA is lost) or 1700-20 if a simple ZZ. My prediction is SP 1950-2050 by the time P3 completes

Here are the originally projected targets vs actual levels 

LT Int W3 Target 1650 - Actual 1687
LT Int W4 Target 1580 - Actual 1565
LT Int W5 Target 1790 - Actual 1850

We'll see if I am right on this in the next few weeks. If the market does find a bottom around that level, it will mean we will see a last multi-month rally before a much bigger correction. 

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors. 

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