Thursday, March 13, 2014

Short Term Trend Confirmed Bearish

I was wrong in my assumption the market wanted to rally today as instead we got a clear bearish wave that is either an C or a W3. The low today is close enough to the 1834 level I mentioned a few days ago to call it a neckline for an Head and Shoulders that targets 1793. Obviously, if this is an ABC count then the market will rally from here on but if this is the potential H&S then the market should test the TA and then sell off in 5 waves to that level. Alternatively, the market could still put in a bit more downside before a bounce and those levels are between the 50 Day Moving Average at 1828 to 1834 support. The reasons for the sell off has been uncertainty with Ukraine and China and with the Crimea referendum taking place this weekend, the political situation has the potential to escalate substantially on Monday. China on the other hand is really not a big deal, if things were so bad the Chinese market would not be at the same level it was before all the "bad" news came out. My retirement depends on that market so I know that economy well.

Since I was wrong, I went ahead and went long with the pharma stock I sold yesterday at support. So hopefully we'll get a good bounce so I can sell that stock and buy back VXX as close to the Trend Average as possible.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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