Thursday, March 6, 2014

Potential Market Top

The market rallied and made a higher high today as I had been expecting so technically there are enough waves to call a market top (short term top most likely).  However, I also see the potential of another impulse to new highs by switching the micro W4 label around so the market might be able to reach the 1900 level. Fundamentally speaking, I think it's crazy to be buying at this point while the US is sending a destroyer to the Black Sea. Not that there will be a war anytime soon, the problem is there are plenty of excuses for the market to sell off. In fact, a single gunshot from the Russians or the Ukranians would do the bear job. My political guess is the Crimea will go ahead and hold a referendum where they will vote for secession from the Ukraine, that vote is on March 16th so the market could continue to rally up until that time. Once the results are in, the Crimeans and Russians will argue that Crimea's referendum is more legitimate than the government of Ukraine (not elected by popular vote) and that's where thing could get ugly. Putin's academic background is International Law so he probably had this in mind before he "accepted the invitation" to Crimea, he knows he can then use the military force and gather international support since he'd be acting to "defend democracy". If you think about it, he actually would have a point since the region elected the President that was removed without elections and they do not recognize the current government.

Anyway, I bought back VXX near the market top today and almost sold it for a profit but I decided to hold. If the market gets to 1900 I will be adding more.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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