Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Ascending Triangle 1807 target

The market gapped up as I was expecting but it retraced a good portion of the gap and put it an Ascending Triangle by the end of day that targets 1807, which could also be interpreted as a nested 1-2. So it seems likely that the market will mount a challenge to the 50 DMA in the next couple of sessions per the count I posted. One scenario I forgot to add yesterday is a "micro" ABC, meaning the market is working on a C wave that targets the 1802-1808 area (Thanks Eddy for pointing it out), which is just a few points short of the 50 DMA at 1813. If the micro ABC is in play then we would see another bearish wave to a lower low for the month. Personally, I lean towards a test of the 50 DMA and the Trend Average which will probably fall under 1820 tomorrow.

I ended up making good money (40% of yesterday's profit) on my "bet" from yesterday but I didn't double it. I sold XIV (12/12) when the market found initial resistance at 1793  and bought SPXL(3X SP500) in the last few minutes of the session when the Ascending Triangle break out seemed imminent. I hope to take profit tomorrow and then I'll have to decide to buy back VXX if the market reaches the 50 DMA.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors. 

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