Wednesday, January 29, 2014

1768 Support

The market did a 180 overnight and sold off today. The last option mentioned, which was the micro ABC was the right count as the market broke out of the Ascending Triangle and put in the cash equivalent high in after hours of 1807 and then sold off overnight. The cash count doesn't really reflect well this C leg but I take the after hours levels into account as now we have a potential bounce from support to that level again. The market put in a lower low but it did not break 1768 and given the Zig Zag look to it, the market is probably working on a bounce to test the 50 DMA again. I ended closing my long position taken at the EOD yesterday (12/13) and I guess I should have sold when the market was hitting the AT target in after hours trading. But my greedy side took over and I wanted to juice the market a few more points which in retrospect was not worth it because it was just a few points shy of my selling target (50 DMA). So I lost what I made yesterday today but I'm still having a good month and I bought back XIV at EOD today assuming 1768 will hold and see a bounce first before further selling. After hours are going up substantially again and I could sell now and make a quick buck but that wouldn't be fun :) That plus the fact that I don't really buy the excuses for the sell off, which started as a weak China PMI reading to now an "emerging market crisis", not to say there won't be further downside but I don't think there will be panic selling like in 2011/2012.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors. 

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