Monday, August 5, 2013

One more bullish wave left?

The market corrected today by "selling off" in the morning but spent the rest of the day working on a possible triangle. Which means the 5th wave completed on Friday was for a W3 and we saw part of a W4 today. So we should see a higher high coming in the next session or two to complete the structure from 1676 and then start a larger correction. The economic environment seems somewhat optimistic and gradual improvements around the world will continue to support the market going higher. All this QE and low interest rates will end in the not too distant future and send the markets into a major correction but in the meantime the path of least resistance is way up, so one has to position oneself accordingly.

I ended up closing my SH position again for yet another minor profit as Friday and leaving the VXX position intact. I will be buying back SH to hold for a while towards the end of the 5th leg.

Please vote on your market views for August.

For July, despite a majority bearish sentiment the markets ended up going up 2% since the time the poll was initiated.

August Market Sentiment Poll

Main S&P 500 Trends*

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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