Thursday, August 15, 2013

Market Update

After almost 2 weeks of bouncing around the 1680-85 - 1700 level, the market finally made a substantial move. The Head and Shoulders pattern proved valid after all and the TA signal was right on the money as it finally turned red yesterday. Unfortunately, my "instinct" was off by closing the hedge position yesterday but it's all good as profit is profit and these moves allow for trading opportunities. So now that we got this "sell off", the count looks a little more clear and we have the critical 50 DMA very close. The move from 1709 could be an ABC with the C wave being complete or almost complete, alternatively this could be a W1-2-3. I still think 1709 was the W3 of W1 of LT Int W5 so we are still in a W4 unless 1626 gets breached.

I am keeping my FXI longs and will be adding Google if we get another 50 day ma test at 1657 (I was asleep as usual so I failed to notice today's low came within 1 point of the 50 dma so this might be it). Also, I'm sure I will revisit VXX eventually when it goes back down from my exit price.

Main S&P 500 Trends*

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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