Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Market Update

The W4 I had been expecting could have technically occurred today as the market seems to be on a W5 already. I was hoping we would get a retrace to 1637 but instead we only got a very shallow correction with a low at 1647. So going by this W4 low then the final W5 should target 1670 going by W1=W5. However, W3 could also be extending in which case the top of the entire structure could be going for 1687 or higher. If we look at the first impulse from 1560 to 1626, we get 66 points and if this is indeed a B wave then 1604 + 66 =1670. However, if what we have is actually part of the LT Int W5 then we get 1710 and the current wave would be a W3. So anything going substantially beyond 1670 increases the odds of a W3 and obviously breaching 1687 would confirm it.

I went short yesterday at 1649 and unfortunately got stopped in after hours once it became obvious the W4 was already in. But at least the longs make up for any short pain. However I will be buying back the short position possibly at 1674 if it makes it there or just go margin long when the entire structure does a Fib retrace.  I don't think anyone could have predicted this big of a really in 2013 based primarily on QE but this is what the market wants. In a way more so than real economic growth which I find somewhat bizarre but I will go with the trend until it tells me not to. At this rate I am starting to doubt the coming bearish wave will be able to break the 50 day ma support.

Main S&P 500 Trends*

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Neutral Leaning Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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