Thursday, July 11, 2013

Intermediate Trend is now Bullish

The market gapped up today as expected and reached the 1674 target and some more. I see enough waves to start at least a W4 correction but I think it's about time for the market to put in a stronger bearish wave to digest gains and then continue the run. There has been 3 bullish gaps in 1 week and the SP500 has gone up 60 points from the day I changed the short term signal to bullish so the market is very overbought. However, since 1687 is so close, I wouldn't be surprised if bulls make a run for it. Whatever the case, what I am focusing on is more on what will the next bigger bearish wave will do. A test of the 50 day ma would be ideal and that is currently at 1630 so a proper Fib retrace would get the market there and allow traders on the side to jump in. I am hoping to see the 50 DMA hold and go margin long there (meaning adding new longs to my current long position) and perhaps see 1800 by the time we get another substantial correction. Right now the chances for this wave from 1560 being a B are very slim and I am leaning towards labeling the entire move from 1687 to 1560 a 3-3-5 correction as posted above. The intermediate trend changed to bullish today as well so that favors a bullish run that will last for quite some time.

I shorted at 1673 per my plan from yesterday so hopefully we'll get a bigger corrective wave soon. Even if the run continues I will probably continue to hold shorts until I profit since my longs are overcompensating for any downside from the short position.

Main S&P 500 Trends*

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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