Thursday, April 25, 2013

Going for 1600

I think we now have an obvious bullish 5 wave count and the bearish case looks dim given the bullish momentum. However, I think the structure from 1536 is complete or almost finished so now I am just looking for a test of the Trend Average which currently is running at 1566. If this 5 wave count is the W1 of the final Int W5 then I project 1640-1662 as the ideal target level. Last time I projected 1600+ the wave from 1539-1597 was reversed completely but now that the market has somewhat corrected, odds favor 1600+ after a correction. I guess sell in May and go away will be the right thing to do this year as well.

I am keeping my VXX position until the TA test and so far it has actually gone up despite the market making new highs for the 1536 wave. So maybe I'll able to squeeze a buck or two if 1560 gets tested? at that point I will most likely go margin long. Also, the HSI is in a confirmed W3 (of W1?) so that helps global mood for bulls. Also, now that FXI has rallied 7% in one week from its 2013 low last week maybe the correction is done there as well. Ironic that short interest on it was at the highest since 2007 and someone made a $16 million bearish option bet (largest single option trade of the year) before this big rally from nowhere.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish 

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