Thursday, April 4, 2013

Correction or Sell Off?




















The market bounced to the Trend Average as I had been expecting and it seems to be working on an ABC correction. Thing could get interesting once the C wave completes or it could go into another ABC before we see the next bearish leg which will tell us if there is a stronger sell off coming or this whole thing is just another consolidation. Right now the excuse being used for the correction is North Korea. The situation there seems to be volatile as the young Kim is trying to show the world is twice as crazy as his dad (and his dad was really crazy). So he might end up cornering himself into starting a military conflict for the sake of absolutely nothing and if that were to happen, the markets should sell off 5%+ easy.. then again Japan just reached the 13,000 level I had predicted in December and a 50% rise from the day the recession became official in Japan. Ironic, considering the Japanese economy is growing at 0%,

Today I executed my reloading plan, so I am back in VXX at $20.20.


Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio
  • 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) initiated September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013 - Bought back 5% 02/27/13 - bought 5% 03/01/13 - bought 5% 03/04/13 - bought 5% 03/06/13

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy

  • Bought 3000 VXX@ 19.83 on 04/02/13 Sold 3000 VXX@ 19.99 on 04/03/13 +0.16
  •  Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.09 on 03/27/13 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 36.63 on 03/26/13 -0.46
  • Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.07 Sold 1000 FXI@ 37.29 on 03/26/13 +0.22
  • Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.47 on 03/20/13  - Sold 1000 VXX@ 20.91 on 03/21/13 +0.44
  •  Bought 2000 FXI@ 36.21 on 03/19/13 - Sold 2000 FXI@ 37.08 on 03/20/13 +0.87
  •  Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.73 on 03/14/13 - Sold 1000 VXX@ 21.85 on 03/18/13 +1.12
  • Bought 1500 SPXU@ 30.98 on 02/27/13 - Sold 1500 SPXU @ 31.05 on 03/01/13 +0.07
  • Bought 2000 VXX @22.38 on 02/12/13 - Stopped out @22.38 on 02/14. Bought back @22.05 on 02/15/13 - Sold all 2800 VXX on 02/25/13 @ 24.30 = +2.05
  • Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
  • Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
  • Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
  • Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
  • Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
  • Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
  • Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
  • Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
  • Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
  • Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.
Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $5,220*  
* Margin position avg is $20k
* Margin position in gold is $4k

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