Wednesday, July 11, 2012

The wait continues

Today the market put in another lower low for this wave but it quickly reversed to close above the 50 day MA. So one could argue there are enough buyers at the this level, however the market has closed 2 days consecutively under the Trend Average so there is a potential bearish trend change if the market closes below it again tomorrow. Also, the 5 wave count was technically invalidated because Wave 4 went into Wave 1 territory. So now the wait continues as we've been trading in this range for 3.5 months now.

Lastly, it was interesting to read the Fed minutes today. I think the fact they are not announcing Q3 is actually good as they see some strengths in the economy. By doing Q3 the market would go up just to catch up with expected inflation and it would signal the economy is indeed deteriorating fast. By holding, they are signaling there is no need for support which is good for the economy in general.

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