Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Next target 1388-1392

The market took out the 1374 top by a hair today and it seems like the next target is 1388-1392. I removed the 5 count label as I rather see more price action before continuing to add labels, sometimes counting waves can confuse your trading so I rather feel confident about a count than start guessing. What we do know now is that all trends are pointing up and the market is approaching the upper band of the channel that starts from the 1309 low. If you look at that chart (the daily), you can see the market might be in a double nested bullish set up which has the potential to break that upper band in a bullish Wave 3. And I guess if the Feds announce Q3 or the market places a high probability of Q3, we will be heading to new highs. I am aware of the bearish Elliott wave counts out there, which are probably the great majority of wave blogs. But I continue to warn people to not put your money on these long term orthodox counts that are calling for a bearish "Primary 3" when all trends clearly are signaling NOT to be short. I've seen that P3 count since 2009 and 3 years later (and God knows how many $ millions lost by short traders), I still see the same exact mistake.

So yours truly has been and is staying long but hedged today and took some profit on the dip. We might get a correction to the TA or we might continue to rally to the next stop before correcting. The safest bet would be hedging (and staying that way) at TA + 2(VIX).

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