Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 10th

 

The market has continued its rally to higher highs and it doesn't seem like it wants to stop. We now have a new ATH at 4371 which are NASDAQ levels seen not all that long ago! I have stopped trying to figure out the long term count because there is no reasonable count anymore. So I am just going with the trend and trading it.

Hope everyone is enjoying the summer and staying healthy! I am hoping to go on a vacation soon but I still have some reservations despite being fully vaccinated. Just hope the Delta variant doesn't get out of control and we get more lockdowns again in the fall. Looking at the numbers, under-vaccinated regions will be suffering when it starts to cool down. Maybe the market will use this as an excuse to sell-off? I can't imagine it rallying until the end of the year but who knows at this point.

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 5th

 

This market has more lives than a bunch of cats put together! lol. This thing just refuses to go down. The TA was reversed last week and the trend remains bullish despite waning bullish momentum. Based on seasonality and the fact the market has been rallying for over a year one would assume there should be a decent pullback during the summer. But as I have learned through experience and writing this blog for some many years, it's best not to bet on it! I sold my positions couple of weeks ago for a nice profit and all cash in my trading positions. I know sooner or later there will be a big pullback but this could take time.

In the meantime, I am ready to enjoy my summer and do things I didn't get a chance to do in the last year or so. Hope everyone is staying healthy and making plans for a great summer as well! Sorry, I haven't been writing as often but I am just busy with business and life. But the good thing is everything is well and I have a lot to be grateful for.

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 15th

 

The market finally seems to have found a top but we need to see the TA stay bearish for downside to continue. I would say the key thing to watch is for the counter-rally to exhaust before 4238 is reached. A bullish TA signal or a new ATH would invalidate the current bearish set up. I ended up selling everything I bought last month on Friday for a nice profit and I hope the bearish pattern follows through and we see substantial downside so I can buy back :) Maybe this year, we will get the usual "Sell in May and Go Away!".

Also, it is now officially 2 weeks after my second Pfizer dose so I feel a lot safer and grateful that I made it ok through the last 14 months. I hope everyone is also doing ok and immunized as well. Hopefully, this will be the one and only pandemic we will see in our lifetimes.

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 01st

 

The market managed to make another marginally higher ATH after our last update at 4218 before losing some ground and closing the week flat. Prices saw little volatility during the week and we could be seeing a sideways correction that is consolidating gains before another leg higher. The bias remains bullish and new all-time highs are to be expected as long as the short-term trend remains bullish. With that said, there is now a bearish cross on the daily MACD and we are getting closer to a significant top.

Also, I finally got my second shot of the Pfizer vaccine and I am relieved! hopefully, life will be closer to normal in the next month or two. Just hope there isn't some variant that will screw things up.

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 24th

The market had a volatile week but still managed to make a marginally higher ATH on Friday. It does appear that the rally is on its last legs but until the Trend Average turns bearish, new highs continue to be likely. In fact, if resistance breaks we could see a very strong rally into May. I ended up buying in as planned last week (40% of cash) but will pull out once the trend turns bearish.

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 10th

The market closed the week at a new all-time high and there is no sign of slowing down. If anything, I think we might see a period of extreme bullishness given the vaccine progress (I got mine yesterday) and talk about national infrastructure projects. And if a world-wide pandemic, deep recession and a unhinged President didn't do much to cause an extended bear market, I doubt anything at this point will. Maybe in a few months we will see a big correction but it seems we are headed for a period of extremes. I really didn't want to add to positions but I am going to use dips and TA signals to make the most out of this market by putting into work some of the cash. I have a good amount just sitting there doing nothing so I might as well. I tried buying real estate too but it is ridiculous now to be a buyer so I am not going to even bother at this point.

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 27th

 

Sorry for the long term absence. It was a lot easier for me to be diligent about writing when I had time to sit at Starbucks as this was part of the routine. But since the corona virus hit, my schedule has completely changed and so have my habits. Hopefully, things will be getting back to normal in the next two or three months and I will be back enjoying my routine like old times.

Anyway, this is a market fueled by mania(and low interest rates) at the moment. I originally thought we would revisit last year's low but it seems this will go on for as long as stimulus and interest rates supports it. I have to say that despite the fact that I do believe waves evolve in patterns, these multi-year patterns are simply impossible to predict and fundamental analysis in combination with trend-trading is far more effective. So yes, the market will top eventually, when I have no idea. All I can say is that the trends supports higher highs, especially when the TA is bullish.

I continue to hoard cash and I am looking for investments that make sense. But until I see an opportunity, I am happy just waiting. I've tried buying real estate too recently but it's the same problem too. Low interest rates has created mania/desperation. I just wonder how and when will this end as it's been now 12 years of the same.

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 17th

 

The market has rallied to new highs right after the last update but has traded in a tight range for the last 8 sessions. The TA changed to bullish during the initial rally and has been bullish since but unless there is another leg to the rally soon we could see the trend turn bearish again. The rally is now stretched and there is plenty of talk of a bubble at this point so we could see this thing finally pop soon. I find it amazing that we are in 2011 and we haven't seen any significant bear markets for over a decade, this is now the longest bull market ever! 

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 30th

 

The Trend Average finally turned bearish this week after months of being bullish. The market lost -3.49% for the week and we will see much lower prices as long as the TA remains bearish. The 200 DMA is at 3349 and just a test of this level would make it a 10%+ correction so we'll see if prices get there fast or will start bouncing around. Technically speaking, the selling should have occurred when we had all the election drama and record covid-19 cases so not sure what could send the market into a stronger sell-off other than the fact that it is overbought. I don't think a short-squeeze on Game Stop is enough of a reason to send prices under the 200 DMA but who knows!?

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 23rd

Finally, we have a new President! I am glad we are moving on and getting back to normalcy after 4 years of a clown pretending to be a leader. Hopefully, we will never see anything like this ever again. 

The market has continued to make higher highs and the TA has been right basically since the rally started. I believed prices would resume selling at some point in 2020 but I was wrong about that as it has been a non-stop rally since the sell-off in March. And now that there is an end in sight to the pandemic, the recession and we have a new administration, I don't know what the catalyst would be for a bear market other than the fact that equities are overbought. But I think the next longer term bearish wave will set the earth for the next year or so. If the low in the next correction fails to go below the one last year at 2200 then basically prices will continue to rally to new highs. I have all this cash on the sidelines so I hope to see that bigger correction soon!

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 10th

What a week! Despite all the political turmoil and what basically amounts to an attempted coup by the loser, the market managed to reach a new all-time high! And this is not even taking into account the record of people getting sick and dying by the thousands.. There seems to be a disconnect somewhere but it is what it is. The TA has been bullish all along and pointing in the right direction and continues to favor higher highs. With that said, the market is very overbought and there should be a change of trend soon. Hopefully, it won't be some violent act related to the loser but after another impeachment, he might just convince enough people to do more stupid things.

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 4th

Happy New Year! I am glad 2021 is finally here and I hope we will be able to put the pandemic behind us in a few months. These next few months are going to be tough but at least there is light at the end of the tunnel. That and the fact we won't have a man-child running the country anymore!

Anyway, the market closed the year at an all-time high as expected but started the year with a sell-off. The market is overbought at this point and any strong sell-off shouldn't come as a surprise. What has been surprising is how resilient the market has been in light of the pandemic and the clown show in the White House. I see some Elliott Wave counts that call for a sell-off very soon to challenge last year's low at 2200 but to be frank, I am not sure how valid are those predictions as this seems like a long-term W3 with no end in sight. But who knows? maybe we'll see a bear market year after more than a decade of waiting for one! I got lucky in business and the stocks I bought in China years ago but I will continue to be patient for an opportunity to get back in the US market. I am sitting on quite a bit of cash just waiting to be deployed so maybe we'll see an entry soon in the US?

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors