Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 30

Then market seems headed towards a test of the TA and possibly its most recent low at 2044. If that low remains intact, the set up would be bullish so I will be going long soon if the pattern materializes. If not, then we'll see if bears can go down to 2005 and break it.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 29

The market managed to rally above its previous high and close comfortably above the TA. While EW doesn't provide a solid count yet, sustained trade above 2060 will turn all trends bullish in the next few days. Also, there is a bullish cross on the daily MACD, which is usually about 75% correct in predicting higher highs in multi-week frames. I was hoping to start building long positions above 2060 but since there was a gap, I will wait for a test of the most recent low to have a better risk/reward set up.

Also, here is a chart that illustrates the mixed picture of the market this year. Basically, energy dragged down the broader market but low oil prices ended up benefiting consumer oriented industries. In all, it looks balanced but as oil is getting closer to a bottom (it has fallen more than 60% from its peak last year), chances are energy is going to start making a come back while consumers will start enjoying wage growth due to inflation and low unemployment.  So this would call for a bullish 2016 based on net profit growth.  Assuming PE ratios will remain the same next year and we get a 3% GDP growth plus 3% inflation, my guess for the S&P 500 for 2016 is 2,250-2,300. Basically, about the same number I had projected last December for this year.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 28

The Trend Average was tested today in what seems like part of a correction. We could see another leg to a lower low, maybe even test 2022 support and if that level can hold then there is a chance of a strong rally if the market keeps trading above the TA. Oil is the excuse for the selling today but anyone following oil can see there is a good chance is headed towards a test of $40, so we'll find out very soon if the SP500 can manage to be green for the year or be negative for the first time in 7 years.

I saw the Big Short movie over the weekend and it's interesting for the likes of us. I remember back in 2005-2006, I refused to buy a home because I just couldn't make sense of housing going up 20% per year while incomes where flat. I wasn't smart enough (as the guys in the movie) to find a way to short housing but at least I waited patiently to buy it at the bottom in 2011. Watching that movie made me realize we got off (as a country) relatively easy, as what happened then was enough to send us into a 1930's like depression. Now that 2016 is almost here, the economy seems to be doing relatively well but the big question is what will be the price of these abnormally low interest rates we've had for the past 7 years. It's almost too good to be true actually. My businesses have done very well is this economy and I am hoping I will pay off my mortgage before the next recession comes. I just hope it won't be until mid-2017 so I can have time to be completely debt free before the next downturn.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 24

Not really much to add today as I think any significant move will have to wait after the long holiday weekend. Plus I have to buy last minute gifts..

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 23

The market follow through on its rally and was able to turn its Trends bullish. Also, the close today is above the 50 and the 200 DMA, which incidentally just had a golden cross. Unless bears sell off strongly in the next week or two and make a low below 1993, the bias is now turning bullish on continued trade above 2060 level.

I will be going long on trade above 2060 after a correction.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 22

The counter-rally gained momentum today and ended up challenging the Trend Average as stated yesterday. What happens in the new few sessions will probably set the tone for the next few weeks. A clean break of 1993 on a strong bearish wave will lead to a bigger sell off. However, a continued rally that is able to take out 2076 will likely challenge 2100 and eventually the all time high. I ended closing my longs for a minor profit and will jump in again if the market is able to gain traction.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 21

The market staged a counter-rally today after testing last week's low in the morning. If the rally continues tomorrow then there's a good chance the Trend Average is going to be tested. What happens after the TA is tested in anyone's guess as the trend bias is bearish but this season is normally bullish. Whatever the case, I will be adding Russia to my portfolio this or next week. It's hard to ignore the dividends and how undervalued their companies are at the moment.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 18

The market continued its sell off as expected but the 2013-2019 level was not able to stop the selling and instead the market had a very bearish end of the day close at 2005. Still, until 1993 is breached, there is still the possibility of a Christmas rally taking place next week. If sellers are able to break support then selling will probably accelerate. I went long as planned at 2020 and got too comfortable and did not place a stop after seeing the initial bounce from 2013, so I will be adjusting it next week to 1993.

The focus is again oil prices and as I said a few weeks ago there is a good chance the $32-33 level will be tested before a substantial counter-rally. Considering the close today was $34.50, a bottom (even if temporary) is coming soon and that should help equities. However, in the overall scheme of things, low oil prices benefits consumers and I've personally saved about $1000 this year compared to what I used to pay ($4-4.25 p/g) before the oil crash. And where it gets better is one can get a portion or all of those savings and give it to your favorite charity and still get a deduction for it! Regardless of what bears say, the economy is doing well and this is the time to give something back to those who are not as fortunate.

So if you had a good year and are able to give, here are some good charities.


http://www.aspca.org/donate‎

https://donate.salvationarmyusa.org

http://www.redcross.org

https://donate.doctorswithoutborders.org


Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.


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Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 17

The market has entered a correction as expected and given the strong bearish momentum we could see 2019 tested. I assume the rally after this bearish wave is over is what is going to set up the general direction of the market for the rest of the month. A Christmas rally is very likely if the Trend Average turns positive in the next few sessions. Failure to trade over the TA will set up the market for accelerated selling.

I will be going long as close to 2019 as possible to use 2013 as a stop, a very similar trade I did couple of weeks ago.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 16

The Fed finally decided to raise interest rates after almost 10 years! This is actually a good sign for the general economic cycle as the country will finally be moving out out of crisis mode. Back in 2006 the economic felt great, money was plentiful and even a immigrant janitor for my business bought a $400K house and a nice new truck on minimum wage. I had feeling then a recession was coming (around the time Bush came out with a cash stimulus) and eventually reality set in. Now in 2015, unemployment is almost as low as back then and the economy feels good enough. But now that interest will start rising, my guess is there will be a recession coming after a few hikes, perhaps in 2017? Personally, I am hoping there will be one in 2017 or 2018 so I can buy more stuff cheap. If Hillary wins, an immediate recession is almost certain.

Anyway, the market made a higher high and closed comfortably above the Trend Average. If the pullback on this 5 micro-count manages to stay above the TA and the 50 DMA, there is still hope for a Christmas rally to new ATH. I didn't buy anything in the US today but I bought more China yesterday and planning to buy Russia as they are very cheap at the moment.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 15

The market continued its counter-rally today in a bullish W3 and the Trend Average was tested as expected after 2042 failed to hold the advance. Looking at the waves, once could make the case for a completed 5 wave structure so another sell off or pullback should come soon. I suppose the excuse for whatever the market does next will be the decision by the Feds. Personally, I hope they start hiking rates to get it over with.

I ended up selling all my longs at the TA test and I'm back in cash on my trading account.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 14

The market made a lower low just above 1990 support early morning before rebounding to close the day at 2021. All trends are now bearish and bulls would need to re-capture the 2060 level to keep their hopes alive. The only thing that looks "bullish" is how the leg from 2093 to 1993 looks corrective, which implies the recent sell off will only lead to a bigger rally. For now, the best is to be cautious until the market reaches key trading levels. I went long as planned and I almost got in at 1993 but by the time I was able to input the order the market was at 1997. And given the substantial bounce, I am raising my stop to what could be a micro-2 at 2006. I expect a test of the TA if 2042 is not able to stop the counter-rally.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 11

Yesterday I was leaning towards labeling the correction over but today's sell off was firmly bearish. The previous low of 2019 was broken and the close is well below both the 50 and the 200 DMA, unless the market manages to bounce off this range (1990-2020) convincingly, my assumption is lower lows ahead. Still, we have to keep in mind that in the long term picture this could be the C of the LT W4, which implies a bottom will be found and a new extended rally to new highs will come in a LT W5. Also, the excuse for the sell off continues to be oil and like I mentioned the other day, a break of $37 would likely lead to a test of the 2009 low of $32. So a likely bottom, even if temporary, is in sight for oil and that will help equities rally. For now, the best is to stay with the Trend Average and not fight it. I'll go long only if we get close to 1990 and with a 5 point stop.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 10

The market rallied towards the TA today but much of the gains were reversed by the close. Looking at the wave structure, I am inclined towards labeling this leg a C due to the all the overlapping waves. Unless there is a clean break of support in the next few days in a W3, chances are the correction is coming to an end. Oscillators have been resetting and conditions are ideal for a Christmas rally going by Technicals alone. Maybe by the time the Feds make the decision on rates the markets will be ready to move forward.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 9

A lower low was made today and the most recent bullish set up has been eliminated. Still, the Nov 2019 low remains in place and it is a must hold level for the bullish case. If the market is able to re-capture the 50 DMA and eventually the Trend Average in the next few sessions it will be setting itself up for a Christmas rally. However, failure to trade over the TA will mean further downside in the next few weeks.

Oil has been trading around its $37 low and needs to stage a strong counter-rally soon or risk losing support and sell off to test its multi-year low of $32. The low in 2009 was due to demand side problems as economies were plunging into recessions and depressions. Today, the problem is entirely on the supply side as shale oil has dramatically increased supply. And it will be interesting to see how this ends up playing out as OPEC (specifically our "ally" Saudi Arabia) are refusing to cut production in order to drive North American shale oil companies out of business. The problem with that thinking is that as soon as prices go back up to $50 then shale oil companies will come back to the market. In the end, the typical American driver has saved around $800 dollars this year in gas so hopefully this will go on for a while. This number btw translates to about $180 billion into the pockets of consumers (just in the US) instead of oil companies and our friends in the Middle East. Whatever negative impact of low energy oil prices is more than made up by the savings we are enjoying as a whole.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 8

The market made a lower low today and unless this is a bearish nested W3 wave, there is a good chance the bottom is in for this particular correction as long as the low holds. However, the close is well under the Trend Average and a bottom can't be confirmed until that level is re-captured. The ongoing concern is oil, which has been a drag on energy companies and the overall market this year. The next major support for oil is $32, which is not all that far from current levels and if that level holds, we should see a rally to the 50 DMA again and with that a parallel rally in equities. In all, lower oil prices is equivalent to a tax break so the lower the better for consumers and the economy in general (except those states who depend on oil production).

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 7

I got back early morning (after a 12 hour flight) and been working non-stop all day so I will make this short for today. Basically, the market closing below the Trend Average is a negative. However, the pattern is bullish as long as the 2042 low holds. So if the TA can be re-captured soon, we should see higher highs coming. I will write more on possible scenarios tomorrow once I get good sleep.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 4

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 3

The market broke support at 2070 to confirm a bigger correction and ended testing the 2038-2045 support area, which might be re-visited again on another bearish leg. I am assuming this sell off won't go below the 50 DMA but it is obviously too early to tell. As long as the market trades above the 2019 low for the previous wave structure, the bias will continue to be bullish.

I have been reading the news on the shooting in California (it happened not all that far from where I live) and I am still amazed at how political correctness has blinded common sense. Apparently, it's too hard for some people to figure out the "motive". It's actually beyond ridiculous.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 2

The market reversed all its gains from yesterday and it closed below the Trend Average. A move below 2070 would confirm a top for the wave structure that started at 2019. If bulls manage to get past yesterday's high, then 2016 will likely be challenged. Unfortunately for me, I got stopped out at break even so I am back where I was last week. The reason for the sell off today was oil, which will end up testing $37 if support at $40 fails. So that could provide a reason for bigger correction in the next week or two.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bulliss trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.