Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 30

The market has rallied as expected towards the Trend Average and I am expecting a test as soon as tomorrow. The real challenge for bulls will be the 1950-1955 area, if they can clear resistance then they increase their chances of reversing the ongoing downtrend. Still, I'd like to see another low before the start (or continuation) of the bull market. Looking at the fundamental picture, there is nothing out there that points to anything more serious than a correction at this point.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 29

A lower low was put in today at 1871 and this qualifies better as a test of 1867, so I think we will see the Trend Average tested as long as support keeps holding. A potential target for the counter-rally is again the 1950-1955 area and I wouldn't be surprised to see a neckline for an IHS form again. If the bounce does get to that level and we get another 5 waves down equal in length to thr 2120-1871, then the target would be around 1800.

I started to go long today near the bottom and my stop is 1867. I am also considering buying some beaten down companies but I'll probably wait until the correction is over for that as I'd like to hold them. I'm thinking Exxon, Gazprom, and adding to my position on Chinese banks. These companies btw are some of the 10 most profitable companies in the world but they are trading very cheap and paying high dividends.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 28

The market ended going back to the previous low as expected and then some. The low today was 1879, which is close to the 1867 low to start a bounce. Also, the micro-count we've been following is technically complete so we could now see a counter-rally to test the Trend Average. However, if the (iv) label ends up being a (ii), then there is plenty of downside to come before a meaningful bounce. The reason I didn't label the seemingly 5 waves down to 1908 a complete 5 count (which implies today is part of a (iii)-) is because of wave rule violations, specifically the (iii) being just a bit shorter than (i) and (v). Ideally, we would see a bounce and then more downside to get to the target of 1820 or a bit below.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 25

The market went straight to the 1950-1955 area I mentioned yesterday but hit a brick wall there. Assuming the bearish count is correct, we will see 1903 tested early next week. With that said, there is also an Inverse Head and Shoulders targeting 1990 if the high today was a bullish W1, so bulls still have a chance of clearing overhead resistance.

The market seems to have taken the news of a rate hike fairly well but with the potential government shut down coming up, there are plenty of excuses to sell. The fact that John Boehner is resigning is a sign that the extreme right of the Republican party is not going to make discussions to fund government easy. Things could get interesting next week.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 24

The selling continued earlier today and prices came within a few points of 1903. Looking at the wave structure, I moved the W3 or C to today's low to better reflect proportionality. So we could see another strong bearish wave if bulls are not able to clear 1950-1955 in the next sessions or two. I read Yellen just said there will be a rate increase this year so we'll see how the market takes it tomorrow.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 23

The short term trend has now turned bearish and it looks like recent lows are likely to be challenged. The deadline to fund the government is Oct 1st and given the threat by the most conservative side of the Republican party to shut down government unless it gets its way might create the ideal backdrop for a strong sell off. I'm assuming only after a few more weeks of uncertainty and volatility the market will find a bottom. For now, it's the bears opportunity to gain ground.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 22

The Trend Average failed to hold and the bullish option (count/ascending triangle) posted in the past week have been invalidated. So this is now a good opportunity for bears to resume another leg of the sell off that started last month. I have this potentially larger bearish wave labeled as a C wave on the chart I first posted on Sept 18. If bears can gather strength,  we should see 1867 re-visited but ultimately I like 1820 or a bit lower around the 1780 level as a bottom. With that said, the micro-waves from the 2020 top looks like a zig zag so far, so the market must stay under the Trend Average to confirm bearish bias. If the market re-captures the trend, then it just means the market is not yet done going up for the B wave.

I was originally hoping to see the 2039/50 DMA level tested to start short positions but the market fell a bit short. So now I will just wait for a good entry point for longs, hopefully towards the bottom of this C wave.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 19

The market managed to make a mild bounce today and ended up closing right on the Trend Average. It's hard to say what is the next move but as long as prices stay above the TA the bias is to the upside. However, if bulls fail to gather momentum in the next session or two then I favor downside as the major trends are still clearly bearish. Also, September and October are historically bearish months and this is the chance for bears to gain some ground, specially since a government shutdown drama is coming up.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 18

The market has reversed all its recent gains and now finds itself under the Trend Average. Technically speaking the market still has a bullish bias until a lower low is made but the overall structure from the 1867 low looks corrective. Therefore, whether the market has enough strength to reach the 50 DMA or not, the result is the same. So we could see a C (red) wave evolve next week or after another higher high is made that will go back to the 1820-1900 area to possibly end the larger correction. As it is, the C wave (blue) is just 6 points shorter than the A wave so the the bounce has advanced enough to be over.  I am looking to short as close as possible to the 50 DMA or to go long after the C wave is done.

Have a great (last summer) weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 17

So the Feds decided the kick the can down the road again and it looks now like there won't be a rate until 2016. The markets rallied and broke resistance as expected but gains were reversed by the end of the day. Going by the Ascending Triangle pattern and the count posted, the reversal is a correction and the bias continues to be up. Bulls now have the excuse to rally so we'll see if the 2039/50 DMA test comes in the next few sessions. The NASDAQ tested its 50 DMA today, so maybe the rest of the indexes will be doing the same.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 16

The market closed right above resistance and the pattern now favors strong upside. Obviously, this will all depend on the Fed's decision on rates and a market friendly announcement will give bulls the excuse to rally. But even if there was a rally, we have to keep in mind that this would be just part of a test of the 50 DMA and technically speaking there's not much to be excited about. The market is not out of the woods until 2039+ is re-captured in the short term. The ideal wave scenario would be a test of the 50DMA or 2039 and then a move to a lower low to end the LT W4 wave towards the end of the year or early next.

If the Feds raise rates tomorrow, it will be the first time in 9 years! How this will eventually affect housing, financial assets, and consumption will be interesting after such long time. Personally, I think a recession is probably coming a year or two after the first rate hike given the current length of the economic cycle (the official number is 11 to 33 months). Which in itself is not bad as this is how healthy economies grow. Plus, it allows people to buy houses and other assets cheaper.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 15

The 1993 resistance area is being challenged again after a series of higher lows, which is generally a bullish pattern. Also, there is an Ascending Triangle forming that targets 2083 but I don't normally see this pattern near the bottom (it's usually on the W4 position). Then again this is really the first down-trending market I've charted since the beginning of this blog, so this is a learning experience for me. The key to the next move is in Yellen's hands, so we'll just have to wait and see how she manages to raise rates while keeping markets calm. My guess is a 0.25% rate hike with further hikes depending on data for the rest of the year, that should keep everyone happy.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 14

The market didn't do much today as the focus seems to be the Fed's decision on rates. I think the main question at this point is how much of a rate hike the market has already priced in. A decision not to raise rates would ignite a rally for sure but that looks unlikely. Perhaps they will raise rates but leave further rate hikes on hold? I assume the market would rally on that but it remains to be seen. The major trends remain bearish with only the short term trend favoring a higher high.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 11

Not much to add today as the outlook remains the same as yesterday. Seems like the market has wants wait for the Fed meeting to make the next move. My assumption is a rate hike is already priced in, so if they raise rates as expected then there should be some relief rally before heading back down. However, if for some reason the Fed holds on rates, then that will be an excuse for a substantial rally that might even end up reversing the long term bearish trend. Maybe they'll issue some "data dependent" statement again and keep markets guessing.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 10

The count posted is holding so far but we would need to see a rally starting tomorrow to confirm it. Technically speaking there is room for one more bearish wave(as long as it stays above 1937) and still maintain a bullish bias. But I'll go with the most bullish option considering the Trend Average has finally turned positive and there is a new bullish MACD cross on the daily time frame. If China and Oil cooperate, we should see 1993 challenged or broken in the next few sessions.

I am waiting for a lower risk-high reward set up to trade again. So I'm good with either a sell off or a rally.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 9

The market challenged the 1993 resistance today but reversed gains after the sell off in oil. The markets I mentioned yesterday, the RUT and the NASDAQ have technically broken to the upside so despite the selling today, odds now favor further upside after consolidation. I think the main question is whether the sell off will continue once the 50 DMA is challenged.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 8

Hope everyone had a good weekend. Today we saw the strong rally I posted about on Friday and this could be the beginning stages of a larger wave to the 50 DMA or 2039 (whichever comes first).  Confirmation will come when 1993 breaks on the SP500 but the NASDAQ and the RUT might break out first and give us clues as they are leading the rally. Obviously, there is possibility of a breakdown below 1903 but as I said last week, as long as China and Oil are stable, we could see a rally up to the Fed decision on rates.

I ended up selling the China position I bought on Friday at the open as the ETF was pricing a rally to 3300's (closed at 3170).  So that was a quick and easy 10% on this position. Given how much bearish news there are on China right now, I now lean towards calling the correction over as long as 2,850 holds. How this affects the US is anyone's guess. If I am correct, there is going to be a rally past the high this year in the next few months and maybe I can finally call myself retired :)

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 4

The bearish wave today eliminated the micro-count on the chart and it looks better now as an ABC correction from the 1993 high. We could see a strong rally starting next week as long as the recent 1903 low holds. If selling resumes and support levels are breached then entire bounce from 1867 to 1993 will likely be a B wave and a test of 1820 will be very likely on a C wave. I don't think there will be any more important data releases until the FOMC meeting, so the market will have to digest what is already out there and price in whatever the market thinks will come next. That's assuming China and oil will see less volatility in the next couple of weeks.

I bought the China position I sold last week as the market today was pricing a sub-3000 sell off (4% less than last closing), so hopefully I'll sell it again for a profit next week.

Have a great holiday weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 3

The market seems to be following the count posted but there needs to be a stronger bullish wave in the next session or two to confirm. Perhaps the jobs report tomorrow will serve as a catalyst to move the market. A strong jobs report will increase the likelihood of a rate hike, while a weaker one will give bulls some hope.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 2

The market seems to have bottomed yesterday at 1903 and we could be looking at a new bullish 5 wave count. If the count is correct, the previous 1993 high will be challenged by this current wave and perhaps it might even get to resistance at 2039 with a good push. But once a top is found, we could see the C wave make a lower low towards the 1820 level. This would line up well with September, which is historically the worst month for stocks.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 1

The sell off today confirmed the completion of the 5 wave count at 1993 and this bearish wave can be counted as a B of a zig zag to the 50 DMA or a W2 in the most bullish case. Obviously, if the sell off continues and manages to break support at 1867 then we're looking at another strong wave that will end up testing 1820. For now, I favor a normal zig zag to the 50 DMA which I assume will be below 2050 by the time the market gets there. I might go long if the market ends up getting close to the 1905 or 1867 support again.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.