Trending Waves : December 2020

Saturday, December 19, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 19th

What a year it has been. I remember last December I had just come back from a trip to the UK and was really looking forward to a great 2020! And it was around this time last year that I first heard of the corona virus in China and how it could spread abroad. I thought it was going to be like SARS or the H1N1 flu but it turned out to be the worst pandemic we have seen in 100 years. One would think, an event of cataclysmic proportions would have caused a 12-year bull market to crash but instead, the market is up almost 15% this year!! One would assume looking at this that bear market corrections do not exist anymore and are a thing of the past.

Anyway, I don't even want to predict what is going to happen in 2021 with the market because it has become impossible to do so. But one thing I do know from doing this for so long is that everything comes in cycles. Whether the next cycle will be a big downturn or a temporary one will remain to be seen but I am deploying all the cash I've been accumulating in the next bullish cross (assuming a bearish cross will come in the next few months). I have seen several Elliott Wave counts that call for a big turn soon that could create many opportunities and we'll see if they finally come to fruition. Whatever the case, staying with the trend will be the safest thing to do.

I hope 2021 will bring normality to our lives once again. I am already looking forward to travelling and catching up on so many things I had to put off this year. If there is anything positive about 2020 is that I have learned to appreciate normality!

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Saturday, December 5, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 5th

The market closed the week at a new all-time high and it seems unstoppable at this point. I don't think anyone could have predicted the market to be at an all-time high at this point during the very peak of the pandemic and a damaged economy. And that's not even taking into account how long this rally has been going on for. Technically speaking, we are still on the same leg that started in 2009, possibly the longest and expansive wave ever. And while I think (and hope) we will get a good correction to take advantage of lower prices, I am not so sure we will see a multi-year bear given the persistently low-interest environment keeping up asset prices. Maybe it will come when none of us are expecting it as usual.

I have a lot of cash sitting on the side at this point. About 35% of my total liquid assets to be exact. I will get into an interest yielding ETF once we get a correction and then re-assess if I should be more aggressive as 2021 progresses.