Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 29

The market has finally turned its Trend Average bearish after a comfortable close below the TA. It's still too early to confirm a bigger correction until we see a stronger bearish wave that breaks through the 50 DMA and 2085 support. But a correction is looking favorable and likely as long as we see follow through selling early next week.  Maybe bears will finally wake up?

I am keeping all my positions intact but added more China shares with the cash I had left. Corrections are to be expected but the global bull market will continue for as long as companies continue to grow their profits.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 28

The market looks like it is setting itself up for a strong move and we could see a clear impulsive wave tomorrow. One could argue for a 1-2 set up either way so trying to predict which way it's going is a coin toss. However, the market did close under the TA so pressure is on the bulls to follow though on yesterday's rally. We have several issues in the background so an excuse to sell is already there. China's 6.5% dive yesterday after making a 7 year high (that's what you call volatility!) and the Greek problem could push sentiment to the bearish side. Maybe bears will finally wake up?

I am holding VXX until I see a reason to sell and still hoping for China to reach higher highs. If China continues to sell off, I will just add more positions with the cash I have left.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 27

The market re-bounded to test the Trend Average today and we should find out soon if a summer correction has started. To confirm the bearish scenario we need to see a strong sell off wave  to make a lower low, ideally below 2068. Alternatively, if bulls manage to continue the rally tomorrow to challenge all time highs, we could see another IHS set up that targets higher highs.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 26

The market finally had a sell off after rallying for couple of weeks. I see 5 waves down but we could see a mild a bounce before seeing more downside to complete a bigger 5 wave count. Losing the Trend Average and the 50 DMA at 2097 are signs the summer correction is here but we need to see this structure break 2068 to confirm the most recent high as a top. Fundamentally, the sell off is being blamed on the dollar which basically is following the count I posted on Friday. The dollar has a good chance of testing its high for the year in this bullish wave, so we'll see how the stock market will deal with this. On the bullish side, China has resumed its rally just like I posted on Friday as well but I don't think that will do much for sentiment here in the US. That market has rallied 5% is 2 days, so I am now about 10% away from my goal.. it's complete mania there. Traders there have no regards for fundamentals which in a way is great for someone who is paying attention. It allows you to pick stocks ultra-cheap (and they were ridiculously cheap for years, that's why I put all my money there) and sell them really high.

Last but not least, here is the LT chart I last updated in Dec 14. I calculated the wave length for the current rally and had a target of 2,168. So the most recent high is close enough but we could still see some sort of bullish miracle in the next few weeks to a higher high.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 22

The possible ending diagonal I put up yesterday was eliminated with today's mostly sideways move. So I moved the 5th back to where it was given the lack of bullish momentum in the last couple of days. It's hard to see how the market could continue going up without a strong catalyst, specially now that earnings are over and the dollar might start to rally again (I've never counted the dollar, so I gave it a try today and it looks very bullish). One factor that could help sentiment is a resumption of the rally in China but that market has never really been much of a catalyst for the US market.

I've been hedged with VXX and it has taken a beating, but hopefully it will come alive in the next few weeks. And now that China seems to have finished its correction, if there is a strong wave coming like the one in April then I'm pretty sure I'll reach my retirement goal in the next month or two. I just need 15% more upside and I'll start locking in profits/position trading, which I have not done since I started positions years ago. I guess is time to start planning my vacations!

Have a great holiday weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 21

The market almost confirmed the end of the 5th wave with its early morning low but it managed to put in a higher low instead. So new all time highs can still be expected but given the declining momentum, I favor an Ending Diagonal to finish off the 5th. Also, we have to keep in mind this 5th wave could be just the end of the wave that started at 2096 and not the entire structure from 2067 and in that case we would see just a mild correction before another all time high.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 20

The market made a lower low early morning and then rallied to a new all time high, which is what the count had been calling for. Technically speaking, the entire structure from 2067 could be complete but waves do not look proportionate.  Ideally we'd see more upside before a "top" is in place for a correction to the Trend Average, but the market is free to start its correction (or sell off) with today's high. We'll find out very soon if we'll see the sell in May effect, specially when the Trend Average gets tested.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 19

The market made a higher high today but reversed all its gain by the end of the day. For now, I expect more downside before the resumption of the rally to complete the count posted. Maybe the market manages to surprise everyone this year by skipping corrections and going straight to 2300? as it is, there has only been one bull market that is more expensive than the current one measured in market cap to GDP. The only other time stocks had a higher market cap to GDP was in the dot-com era 15 years ago. And it is just a question of time before the next bear market begins, when that will happen is obviously anyone's guess. But my assumption is one is coming within the next 2 years and hopefully we'll see good opportunities like in 2001 or 2009. I hope I will have reached my retirement goal by then so I can double it in the next bull run.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 18

The micro-count posted seems to have completed today and we should see a correction in the next session or two. This count could evolve into a bigger impulse to complete the IHS projection or could end up being an Ending Diagonal. We should get an idea by the end of this week or early next week on the most likely outcome. But I'd be surprised if the market manages to keep rallying into the summer without a meaningful correction, I guess we'll find out soon.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 15

Another new closing all time high was made today and we might see an attempt to break out of range next week. We might see a small correction after the structure is complete but if the market follows the count, then substantially higher highs are coming. The weak dollar and oil has helped the market keep its bullish bias, but the question is for how much longer.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 14

The market closed at an all time high as bulls are gathering momentum to break out of range. If the current wave is indeed a W3, we should see substantially higher highs in the next week or two. With that said, a top is coming up soon and it's best to be cautious. In the last 5 years, we've seen a negative May every year with the exception of 2014. My longs are doing well but I decided to buy back VXX protection just in case.  I want to enjoy the moment but want to avoid surprises :)

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 13

The market seemed like it wanted to rally early morning but ended up reversing gains and forming a small H&S that might end up testing 2085 again. The whole move from the 2017 high could be a zig zag so a lower low should not be ruled out before another attempt to rally.  Obviously, if the market goes lower and loses its 50 DMA, then 2039 will be the level to watch to confirm a bigger correction coming.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 12

The Trend Average and the 50 DMA were tested early today as I had been expecting but the wave doesn't look impulsive, so it seems like the market wants to go for another all time high. The low today creates an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that targets 2170, which is a high target considering how much difficulty the market has had clearing recent ATH resistance. But it is what it is, we have a bullish pattern and the trend has reverted to the bullish side again. I still think we'll see the start of a bigger correction soon but the current bias is bullish, so no point in fighting it. I sold VXX at a small loss but looking to buy back again on signs of weakness.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 11

The market started to pullback after challenging the high from last week and we now need to see how the TA/50 DMA will hold on the correction. If prices are able to hold above 2100, there's a good chance the all time high will be challenged. However, if the market goes below the 50 DMA again we could see the start of a bigger correction that will last a few weeks/months. Bonds yields rose the most in 2 months today and that could be a sign the market will start rolling over soon.. we'll see.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 8

The market gapped up and went right thru the 50 DMA and the TA after the jobs reports was announced, adding more confusion to the overall direction of the market. Despite of this, a new high needs to be made to negate the damage from the sell off earlier in the week. Also, the factors I mentioned yesterday remain so as I said a few days ago, whether a new high is coming or not, my feeling is the market is going to take a break sooner rather than later. I am keeping the VXX I bought yesterday for a while.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 7

The market bounced today as expected and found resistance at the 50 DMA. If the market doesn't overcome the 2,100 level, there's a good chance it will be headed towards a test of 2039. And if that level finally breaks, then we'll finally see a good correction that will last several weeks or even months. Indexes around the world are starting to sell off and that supports a correction here in the US. Lastly, oil looks like it has topped and that will also help the bearish case. Maybe we'll finally see some panic selling!

I bought back VXX at the test of 50 DMA and looking to buy oil as well if we see a good sell off.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 6

The IHS pattern was invalidated today with the break of 2077 and now the market is back to bearish mode again. Unless there is one more zig zag left for yet another bullish run, my feeling is the market has started to roll over. The level that confirms the market has topped is 2039.69, which is the March low. This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone on here as we are in May and the market needs to sell off to bring some fear back, which in turn will create good opportunities to get long when pessimism is at is max.

I am looking to buy back VXX on the rebound to test the TA and hopefully this time I'll keep it for a while.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 5

The correction to the TA started today as expected but it went down deeper than I had anticipated by breaking below initial resistance and all the way down to 2090, which is 50 DMA support. The IHS might not look as good but it is still valid. So if the market intends to go for a new high,  we should see bulls take control tomorrow. Trade below 2077.59 will eliminate the bullish bias and even signal the start of a summer correction.

I sold my VXX at break even as planned and took profits from oil, which reached my initial $61 target when it first broke out. Not sure if the rally in oil will continue or take a break but a test of its 50 DMA looks like a good place to go long again. Oil prices are a perfect example of how markets price the future while most analysts keep forecasting with old data. Another commodity that looks like it has finally hit bottom is Natural Gas, so I'll give it a shot on the correction.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 4

The market managed to follow through on its Friday rally and it looks like it is setting up another Inverse Head and Shoulders that targets 2,141. Ideally, we will see a retrace to test the Trend Average or the low 2100's and then see the start of a bullish W3 from there. The TA was whipsawed for the first time in several months, so the signal is now back to bullish. I am keeping all my positions from last week but will sell VXX on the retrace, unless support levels break.

 Also, I wanted to share this graph on seasonality. I think this is the ideal time to start a correction, so perhaps one more push and then we'll finally see some real selling,

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 1

The market rallied back to re-capture the Trend Average in a fairly strong rally. The absence of a lower low below the 2072 level keeps the uptrend intact, so we could see another challenge to all time highs after a correction next week. The Trend Average is being challenged and might be whipsawed early next week. With that said, we are now in May and the market seems to be lacking momentum despite strength in oil and a weaker dollar. Perhaps, it's about time for a decent correction after a relentless 3+ year rally.  I am keeping oil, added back VXX to hedge and looking to probably add natural gas in the near future.

Last but not least, my prediction for the fight tomorrow. I've been waiting for years for this fight and almost went to Vegas to see it (and bet on it) but just couldn't make time for it. Tomorrow is going to be about speed and whoever can impose his speed will win this fight.  From looking at their fights, I think Pacquiao is faster and he will unleash a barrage on punches on FM. Whether FM can duck those punches (specially Paquiao's left hand) and counter punch is the big question. Still, I think Pacquiao will finish ahead in compubox stats and technically win the fight, whether or not they'll give him a decision in Las Vegas is another question.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.