Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 30

A micro 5th wave did materialize and a higher high was put in at resistance (2683) as expected but gains were reversed by the end of the session. It's important to note that a neckline has formed at 2683 and any correction low higher than 2612.67 could result in a reversal pattern and a rally to challenge the 2717 high. So bears must break support at 2612.67 for the downtrend to continue in the next few weeks.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 27

Prices traded sideways today in what seems like a micro W4 so we might see a higher high early next week. The close technically puts the TA in neutral but given the pattern, I will continue to assume selling will resume next week. However, if the TA is recaptured next week then it will signal the recent high at 2717 will be challenged soon. Whatever the case, May is almost here and earnings will be done by then so there will be a few months where the market will be vulnerable to selling pressure.

Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 26

Today's follow up rally invalidated the count I posted yesterday so we are back to square one. The rally is still considered a counter-rally despite the close being barely above the TA but if we see continued strength then the market could try to change its current downtrend. I continue to assume prices will make a lower low below the 200 DMA sooner than later.

Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 25

The market tested its 200 DMA with today's 2612 low in the morning. The market then managed to erase losses and close the session slightly positive. If the count posted is correct, we should see lower lows by the end of this week and see the 200 DMA broken for the first time since 2016. If selling accelerates under 2600 then probably the top for this year is already in and there will be a lot more downside to come.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 24

The market went into a selloff after opening higher in the morning. The low today came close to the "target" I had mentioned yesterday but I don't think the market is anywhere near done. If we see selling acceleration in the next few sessions I will label the current wave a bearish W3 as that is what I am suspecting at the moment. A strong bearish wave will end way below the 200 DMA and create a death cross sometime in May. I am hoping this will be the beginning of a bear market that will send prices below 2000 but it's still too early to tell.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 23

The market ended the day flat and again under the TA which turns bearish with today's close. The TA signal has been very accurate in the past few trend changes so we'll see if the streak continues.  The obvious bearish target at this point is the 200 DMA at 2607 and we could see that level tested if sellers step up this week. Seasonally speaking, bulls don't have that much time left to stage a strong rally since May is coming soon and normally summer months are bearish.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 20

The market did not go up as expected and instead closed the day with signs of a possible reversal. The close below the TA and the 50 DMA is not a good sign for the current uptrend and if these 2 levels are not recaptured next week then we might end up seeing a death cross fairly soon. Technically speaking, the market could just be digesting recent gains but I think it's better to be cautious given the potential bearish rollover. I ended stopping out at a loss but will trade again if I see another another low risk set up.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 19

I thought the market was going to go a bit higher before coming down to test the 50 DMA but it happened sooner than I expected and we should find out soon if the rally really has legs. If we see a strong impulsive move this week then we are are looking at a nested bullish 1-2. If we see just a higher high then the market will need a bit more time before it stages a substantial rally. I ended going long at the 50 DMA as I had been planning.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 18

Prices made a higher high today and it looks like it might push even higher before a test of the TA or the 50 DMA. If the market is able to focus on earnings and overlook recent negative news then we should see prices climb substantially higher before a the return of the bears.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 17

Prices were able to close comfortably over the 50 DMA and this solidifies the current uptrend. Also, this breakout puts in play the bullish target for the bottoming pattern I first mentioned couple of weeks ago. The target is 2795 and is conveniently right at the 2800 resistance level so assuming a coming correction to test the 50 DMA at 2685 is successful, we should see prices push higher. This bullish move doesn't necessarily mean a bigger correction is not in the works but it does point a bullish bias in the near future. I will be going long in a test of the 50 DMA, hopefully in the next session or two.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 16

The market managed to close above resistance and this helps the bullish case. However, I'd like to see prices get past the 50 DMA at 2687 before assuming there will be a successful breakout that will send prices well above 2700. Looking at the intermediate term chart it looks like the market is getting ready for a death cross so bulls have a limited window of opportunity to avoid this. I have been cash to be on the safe side, no need to rush.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 13

Prices attempted to break resistance again today but gains were reversed by the end of the day. Still, the close for the week was positive and the TA is back to bullish so I assume there will be another attempt at breaking out early next week.  I think if Trump stays away from twitter or focuses on just Alec Baldwin then we'll have a rally on Monday. I haven't had the chance to go long but maybe I'll do so early this coming week.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 12

The market pushed again towards resistance but has not been able to through it yet. If resistance breaks we should see prices shoot immediately towards the 50 DMA at 2693 and we will see then if the rally truly has legs. Seasonally speaking, this is normally a good time for the market and is not only until late May when things start to turn bearish/neutral. But considering the current political climate, we should be ready for volalitity.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 11

The market ended the day in red but the close was again over the Trend Average and this turns the trend bullish again. So unless the market makes lower lows soon, prices should go higher and eventually breakout of resistance. Also, it's worth noting the bullish daily MACD cross and this signal is more often than not right in where the market is headed for few weeks. So I am assuming 2700+ will be coming soon.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 10

The market rallied today again towards the resistance area (2672-2674) and we should find out soon if bulls intend to break it. The pattern does look like a bottoming pattern but there needs to be a breakout to confirm it. Also, we need to keep in mind the latest Trump news are serious and could cause a lot of volatility as events happen. If there are criminal charges against Cohen (Trump's personal attorney), Trump will be in a lot of trouble. The FBI can dig up a lot of dirt and that's why Trump is more preoccupied with the FBI than anything else. Maybe Mr Law and Order shouldn't have picked a fight with the FBI in the first place.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 9

The market showed strength at the opening but then it started reversing after approaching resistance. The close is again under the TA and we should know of there is a bottom in place or if the selling will continue in the next session or two. The lows at 2586 and 2573 are critical for the bottoming pattern, if they break prices will go towards a test a test of 2553. If bulls are able to clear resistance at 2672-2674 then prices will rally well into the 2700s. I would have gone long had the reversal not been so bearish, so I will wait until the market makes up its mind. No rush here.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 5

The market sold off today and tested the 200 DMA again as I had been expecting. However, the 200 DMA continues to hold and I see a potential bottoming pattern. Unless selling continues next week and breaks the recent low at 2553, the chart pattern favors upside into the 2700's. So I'll probably deploy some cash early next week for a short-term trade if the bottoming pattern continues. However, if 2553 and 2532 break then it will be downhill. The Trend Average continues to be bearish and a death cross seems likely sooner than later.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 5

The counter-rally has continued today and prices closed the day challenging the resistance band in the 2659-2674 area. Prices should retreat tomorrow and bulls would have to defend the 200 DMA again at the 2592 level. The recent volatility will likely continue for as long as Trump keeps talking about trade tariffs. Maybe he will pay attention to his recently appointed Director of the National Economic Council.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/03/kudlow-mr-president-tariffs-are-really-tax-hikes.html

But we all know Trump is a stable genius and will MAGA!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 4

The market sold off early morning but staged an impressive comeback to close the day firmly possitive. The close was above the TA and prices could go as high 2659 if the move continues. We should find out fairly soon if we are going to see a death cross in the market, this unusual volatility is sign a confusion and continued trade war headlines will continue to damage market sentiment.


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 3

The market staged a counter-rally today and we could see prices challenge the the TA and go as high 2659 if the move continues. However, the overall downtrend is likely to continue and eventually cause a death cross sometime in May or summer. The only thing that will reverse this downtrend is the recapture of the 50 DMA currently at 2721.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 2

The market made a lower low as expected and the close was under the 200 DMA (2589). I assume the 2532 low will be tested if the 200 DMA is not recaptured asap and if that support level breaks the chance of a bear market coming increases considerably. I have been in cash for a few weeks now and might go long only if I see a sign of a bottom pattern at 2532. If not, I will be just saving as much cash as possible and take advantage of the bear market sale. What I wonder about is if we do we get a bear market, will the economy follow soon into a recession? Odds say we will likely get a recession within 18 months as we are now in the second longest economic expansion since records have been kept. Also, given the disastrous decision to implement tariff on others bypassing the WTO will surely help the bear cause. Maybe I am dreaming but imagine 1575 in 2019 :) 

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking