Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 29

The market finally made a decisive move to break out of resistance and there should be enough momentum to hit the IHS target of 1978. Most importantly, the Trend Average has turned bullish and there is a new bullish MACD cross on the daily.  We should find out soon if this is just another counter-rally or the beginning of a sustained uptrend in the next few weeks. Oil hit another higher high today and there is a good chance we might see prices stabilize going forward. If Oil can find its footing, equities should be able to test the 2040 level and maybe even re-capture its 200 DMA. I knew Marc Faber announcing he would not see another bull market in his lifetime a few days ago was a sign of a bottom, he's the ultimate contrarian indicator.

Have a great weekend !

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 28

The market managed to close above the Trend Average but still hasn't made a significant move to break out of the pattern. Oil has resumed its rally towards the $37 level and technically this should be a good enough excuse for equity bulls to come back. But I guess bulls are trying to make up their minds at this point. China has made another lower low and it is now off almost 50% off its recent peak from summer 2015. Retail investors dominate the SSEC and it is interesting to see how the same people who were buying like crazy less than a year ago are now selling a market that is extremely cheap at the moment.  I was hoping I'd hit my retirement goal this year but I guess I might have to wait until my original 2017 year after all.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 27

Upper resistance broke today but gains were reversed after the Fed statements. The pattern doesn't look as bullish as it did yesterday but it still has a good chance of a break out. Oil rallied today and continued stability in energy should give equities the excuse to start a multi-week rally. However, until the Trend Average turns bullish, the best is to be cautious on long trades.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 26

The market rallied today (along with oil) and a clean break of 1906-1908 resistance will most likely lead to a break out. Like I said yesterday, oil will probably be the driver for equities in the next few weeks and I do see signs of a bottom there as well. Also, it's worth noting that the Baltic Dry Index made a historical low today at 345, down from a high of 11,000+ in 2008. This index reflects the commodities shipping slow down, primarily as China has all the infrastructure it needs. Lastly, China made a lower low yesterday in its multi-month correction and the end of the sell off should be near in that market. Therefore, these bearish extremes are a contrarian sign that the worst for equities might be over. After all, economies continue to grow at a healthy pace and this oil issue is a manufactured bear market that ends up benefiting consumers in the end.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 25

The market corrected some of its recent gains today and ended up closing right on its first level of support at 1878. If the selling continues, the next level to watch is 1857-1859. The pattern in place is bullish as long as we get higher lows. Ultimately, oil will probably be the key driver for equities in the next few weeks and we will see volatility until oil prices stabilize.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 22

The market has been able to gather some bullish momentum and we should find out how sustainable the rally is next week. Oil has shot up more than 20% since its $26 bottom and continued stability in energy will help equities continue its rally. It's too bad I wasn't able to execute my long trade as I was waiting for $25 oil. But it's ok, I rather be conservative in counter-trend trades than risking the possibility of catching a falling knife. At least I'll get cheaper gas in the next few weeks :)

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 21

The counter-rally was able to continue today and it now seems like a bottom has been found. There is an Inverse Head and Shoulders targeting 1978 and a clean break of 1900 would confirm this move. As I mentioned yesterday, oil finding a bottom was key to a rebound in equities and so far it looks like a bottom has been found in oil as well (oil is trading close to $30). With that said, the trend continues to be bearish and the market has a lot of rallying to do before reversing all the bearish damage done this month.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 20

The selling continued today after 1857 broke in pre-market and a bottom was found at 1812 before a substantial bounce. However, if 1878 is not reached on this bounce then there is room for one more leg down to a lower low. Considering oil got very close to the $25 level I've been mentioning, one more leg down to test the 2003 low would set up the market for a lower low.

I almost went long today but I rather do this only if oil tests $25 as I want to minimize as much risk as possible. If the bottom has been found already, we should see a rally to test the Trend Average in the next few sessions.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 19

The market continued its counter rally early morning before reversing gains towards the end of the day. There are enough waves for the market to start a stronger rally but if last week's low of 1857 is breached, then we could see selling continue in the next few sessions. I think oil is one of the main reasons for the sell off and now that $29.50 failed to hold, there is a good chance it is headed towards $25 (today it traded as low as $27.92). Once oil finds a bottom, then there is a better chance for equities to rally to its 50 DMA.

I continue to be on the sidelines and will buy oil or equities once I see a better sign of a sustained bottom.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 15

What seemed like the start of a sustainable counter-rally yesterday was completely reversed with today's sell off. The 1867-1871 level I've been mentioning was finally reached today but it failed to stop the bearish advance. So now we have a lower low at 1857 and the likelihood there will be more selling ahead. Unless what we saw today is an expanded flat, any counter-rally early next week that fails to take out 1934 will lead to lower lows.  I was planning to go long if support held but it did not, so I continue to stay on the sidelines.

The cause for the sell off seems to be energy related as the plunge in oil continues. If $29.50 fails to hold the sell off, it is likely the 2003 low of $25 will be tested. Saudi Arabia deliberately caused the fall in oil prices to drive out American shale oil out of business and they might just succeed in bankrupting many of these American companies. Once shale oil is out of the equation, we should see oil double in price as the demand is still there and continues to grow.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 14

The market bounced substantially today in what could be the beginning of a bigger counter-rally. However, I'd like to see the 1950 level or the Trend Average cleared before assuming further upside. If this rally is sustainable, we could see an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern in the next few sessions.

Thanks to to all that played the lottery with me yesterday. One of the winning tickets was bought 30 miles from where I live and I can only imagine what that person must be going through right now. We'll give it another try next time the jackpot gets ridiculous again.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 13

The market has continued to follow the posted wave count and today we had a lower low at 1886. There are enough waves to call the entire structure complete but there is a good chance the 1867-1871 level I've been mentioning will be tested. If a bottom is found around these levels, I expect a counter rally to test the rapidly down-trending Trend Average. I will play the bounce if support gets tested.

I am going to buy the winning $2 billion lottery ticket in couple of hours. I added the following numbers to the pool.

ST - 8 13 21 34 55 5
PD - 9, 14, 21, 45, 53, +8
Eddy - 8 21 30 36 65 PB 15
 

The odds of winning with a single ticket is 1 in 292 million. But given the group effort, the odds of winning is now a much better 1 in 19 million. Hopefully we will all be wealthier tomorrow :)

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 12

The counter-rally continued today and made a high of 1947 before pulling back to close the day on a positive note. Like yesterday, it is interesting to see oil plunging to new lows while equities rally. My guess is whenever oil finds a bottom, that's when probably the stock market will be able to reverse the long term bearish trend. But this will take some time since oil might not find a bottom until it is in the $20's. For now, I am looking forward to $2 gas!

Thank you all for posting the winning numbers for this Wed Powerball. These are the numbers I will be playing tomorrow. If you haven't submitted your  numbers, do so by tomorrow.

FR - 6 20 23 31 54 69 PB 13
Jupiter - 1, 11, 37, 43, 44, and 9
Hem - 15, 34, 25, 44, 28, and 24
Ben - 1, 3, 9, 11, 17 and 24
BG - 15, 30, 38, 53, 62/63 Powerball Either 6 or 20.
GK - 03 05 11 15 30 and 02
P.D.W - 4,5,17,33,36 and 11
WR - 8, 10, 24, 37, 52 and 14
Paul - 17 21 28 34 45 59 and 16
Martin - 1, 2, 22, 25, 28 + 21
Trader S - 25, 29, 42,43, 55. Powerball 23
Charl . L - 55,14,8,39,7 and 13

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 11

The market put in a lower low today at 1901 before bouncing back to close the day in positive territory. This despite the fact that oil fell to a new multi-year low of $31, which is a sign the market might stage a counter-rally very soon. Perhaps we will see a W4 like movement in the next few days and then another bearish wave to challenge the 1867-1871 area. What happens after all the negativity is gone is the big question. Fundamentals have not changed in the past weeks, just sentiment.

Now to regular visitors to this site, I am going to give you a chance to win $10 million dollars. Post 5 numbers from 1 to 69 and 1 number from 1 to 26. I am going to pool the numbers and play powerball on Wed. Maybe by Thursday we'll be a few million richer!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 8

What a week! The sell off has continued despite a bounce in China and what seemed like an extended 5th wave yesterday is looking like a 3rd wave. The next significant level of support and a nice level to play a bounce is the 1867-1871 area. However, there is still the possibility the selling is complete since oil is testing the $32 level as I speculated a few weeks ago and likely to produce a strong counter-rally to its 50 DMA.

The safest thing to do now is pay attention to the trend and stay with it until a low risk/high reward set up is found. I did however buy some Russian and Chinese H shares yesterday for my long term portfolio.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 7

The market put in a substantially lower low in what seems like either an extended 5th or a 3rd. Assuming we get a bounce tomorrow, we should get a better idea if there is more selling ahead or we are going to see a rally to the Trend Average. This substantial low makes it difficult for bulls to regain their relatively comfortable position in late December and opens up an opportunity for bears to take advantage of current sentiment. The reason for the sell off is again China which is suffering from retail investor (speculator is a more appropriate term) panic. This is the same crowd that went crazy buying earlier last year so the less the government intervenes, the better as the market will take care of the situation. One of the reasons I invested heavily in China years ago is because of these wild mood swings when it left very profitable companies trading at or even below book value. They currently are valued higher but still significantly below others in the world, so it's a matter of time before market value catches up with intrinsic value. As an example, the Bank of China (8th most profitable company in the world) trades at a PE of 4.5 vs Wells Fargo's PE of 12. Both banks earn about the same and the BOC actually grows faster and pays triple the yield at 7%+. This is why I am invested there in the long term despite all the manic-depressive swings and might buy more bank stocks if they continue to panic.

Anyway,  I haven't bought any shares yet but I will probably start buying Russian shares tomorrow for my long term portfolio and maybe play the bounce in the SP500.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 6

This young year has been interesting so far. First, we had the Islamists going against each other, then we got China selling off, oil at 7 year lows and now we have a man that wears high heels with an H- bomb.  If things keep going this way, we'll have the Donald as the President by the end of the year (not that Hillary would be all that great). We are living in interesting times.

Anyway, the count I've been posting seems have completed today with a lower low at 1979 and a counter-rally to test the Trend Average seems likely (assuming the 1979 low remains intact). And if bulls are not able to re-capture the TA on this attempt, the market might start setting up itself for a series of lower lows to test 2015's low point of 1867.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.