Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 31

The market ended the day on a positive note but was down substantially for December and for the year, a rare down year since the financial crisis. People have been so used to seeing everything go up that some have seem to forgotten that assets can go down too. I am sure 2019 will be interesting and hopefully it will provide us plenty of opportunities regardless of whether your are a bear or a bull.

Happy New Year!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 28

The market continued its bounce today and closed challenging the Trend Average. However, we should see prices drop substantially next week to a lower low if the count is correct. If prices are able to keep rising and recapture the TA then we could see prices headed towards the 50 DMA challenge sometime in January. We'll see if Monday repeats what happened on the 24th.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 27

Volatility was substantial today and wild moves could continue in the next few sessions. The TA is being tested and should prices overcome this level then the bounce has a chance of gaining traction to move towards a challenge of the downtrending 50 DMA currently at 2673.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 26

The market staged a strong comeback today in one of the best days in years. But given the steep sell-off last week this shouldn't really come as a surprise. Despite the strength of the rally, the TA is not close to being tested yet so this might end up being a Christmas sucker rally when there are no more bag holders left.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 24

The selling has continued as expected, making today the worst Christmas Eve trading ever and possibly making this the worst December ever as well as the markets are all officially in bear market territory, the first one since 2007. It's interesting everyone is trying to rationalize what is causing the plunge since there are a multitude of factors. But I think the most simple explanation is that fact that the markets are predicting a recession soon. Just look at oil prices, it has plunged -45% in just 2 months! If a recession is indeed coming then we will see oil prices down in the 20's.

Bear markets have been non-existent in the US for the last 10 years so many people haven't even seen one. The average drop during a bear market is -30% and they last on average 13 months. The last bear market we had was in 2007 and prices plunged 57% then and took 49 months to recover. How long will this one last is anyone's guess but going just by wave measurement, this first leg has a target of 2250 if it is a traditional 5 wave structure. In the long run, I think a drop to the 1600-1800 is reasonable and a good place to load up for the long term. I will be wiring my passive funds into my trading account in the next few days and start trading the counter-rallies. I guess this is my Christmas present since I have only been long silver for the last few months :)

Merry Christmas!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 21

Earlier this week I posted:

"If the 2530 low is unable to hold selling and support is broken convincingly then we should see the wheels come off this market and probably go into bear market territory in a matter of weeks."

The market had the worst week in 10 years and the lack of significant support levels gives the bears room to push the market much lower. The NASDAQ and the RUT are already in bear market territory so the SP500 should follow soon unless there is some sort of miracle. I guess this is bad if you are long but for those that have been shorting or waiting for the bear market, this is a good time. As I've said for years, the trend is your friend and hopefully we will be enjoying the fruits of patience in 2019 or 2020. The one thing that concerns me is the coming recession. It's hard to predict the severity of it so hopefully it won't be too bad and will just reset all the excesses that low interest rates have brought to assets in the last 10 years.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 19

The market has continue to sell off and a new low at 2488 was made. This break of support could turn into very strong selling in the near future. Technically speaking, there isn't much support at these levels so prices could easily go to 2200-2300's in a matter of days. No Santa this year.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 18

A lower low was made today at 2528 and the lack of conviction in today's bounce shows there is more room for downside. If this level is lost, we could see a sell-off like we haven't seen in many years during Christmas week. I guess not even Santa is saving the market this time.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 17

The selling has continued and the 2532 low I mentioned last week was tested. Right now, it is a make or break time. If the 2530 low is unable to hold selling and support is broken convincingly then we should see the wheels come off this market and probably go into bear market territory in a matter of weeks. However, if bulls are able to keep 2530 as the floor then they have a chance for a rally to form a right shoulder of a multi-month Head and Shoulders with a target of 2872 for the next few weeks. What happens in the next few sessions will be crucial and could gives us an idea of where is 2019 headed. Personally, I am hoping for much lower lows so I can start buying stuff with the money I have been saving.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 14

I was wrong on assuming prices would make a higher high as the market sold off again and closed just barely under 2600. All the gains from the rally that started in April are now completely gone and prices could end up testing this year's low at 2532 in the next few weeks. There are some in the financial media that are calling for a bottom but I personally wouldn't touch this market. The TA and all major trends are firmly bearish and the risk is there for a bigger sell-off.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 13

The market closed flat today but it seems like it is ready to make a higher high in the next day or two. I assume the Trend Average will be tested and only then will we know if the bounce is short-term or will continue for a while. There seems to be a lot of talk of progress being made in the US-China trade talks but I think that's just the explanation the media is using for this bounce. The real reason might be that the market was simply very oversold.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 11

Prices went again on a rollercoaster ride today but gapping up in the morning before giving up all agains at the end of the day. There is a possible bottoming pattern in place if the 2583 low holds any further selling. However, any bottoms at this point are probably temporary considering the market will probably continue to head down in the longer term.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 10

The market experienced strong selling earlier today before closing slightly positive at the end of the day. An average person wouldn't think much of it given the fact the market came back but the technical damage done today is substantial and opens the door for much lower lows ahead. In fact, unless the counter-rally is very strong in the next few days, there is a risk 2532 will be taken out in the next week or two and this could bring the type of sell-off we haven't seen in many years. With a death cross in place, the stars are finally lining up for bears.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 6

Prices dropped sharply in the morning below support at 2631 before bouncing back towards the end of the day. This new low remains above the 2603 support level I mentioned a few weeks ago, which is the must-break level for bears. I assume we will continue to see prices counter-rally given how oversold the market is but the death cross should occur tomorrow and we could see rallies sold into by traders. Resistance is a 2746 and at 2760.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 4

I guess the inevitable came sooner than later. The market lost substantial ground today supposedly on doubts about the economy, inverted yield and the trade war. Or maybe, traders are realizing the long term bearish trend is inevitable and sold on strength to bag holders. With the market closing right on the TA, the short-term trend technically remains bullish but the death cross is now imminent in the next few days and the TA should turn bearish soon as well. Anybody buying the rallies is just asking for it at this point.

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 3

The market has made a higher high and has closed comfortably above the 200 DMA after the weekend trade war truce announcement. If prices are able to use 2760 as support then the death cross will be avoided and arguably the bulls will have a chance at a Christmas rally. However, given the fact that the tariffs remain in place and interest rates are going higher, the inevitable will happen sooner or later.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 30

Prices have continued to climb ending the week up almost 5% and right on the 200 DMA at 2760. I assume the catalyst for the next substantial market move will be the outcome of trade talks between Trump and Xi in Argentina. But looking at where the moving averages are headed, the death cross seems inevitable unless there is a bullish miracle. Also, I don't think China will yield much to pressure from Trump as the one that has the most to lose is actually Trump and the US. A big increase in tariffs to goods from China will be felt across the board in the US and have a significant inflationary effect. China will see their share of exports to the US shrink but after all, exports to the US are no more than 20% of their total so they are not exactly dependent on US trade. The bottom line is, if the trade war continues, China will see their economy slow down but we will see a recession  sooner than the anticipated in the US. Last but not least, the pressure is on Trump to bring home some sort of deal as he is the one running for re-election in 2 years. Xi is not under that type of pressure so he can drag his feet if he wants to.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 28

The market posted one of the strongest bullish moves this year today and the close changes the Trend Average to bullish again given the strength of rally. The pattern could turn into cup and handle if the neckline forms in the next few days. I have to say today's move was unexpected given the bearish set up that had been working week for the past few weeks but now that the trend is bullish we should expect further upside until the rally exhaust itself. With that said, the death cross remains highly likely in the next few days and the long term trend will be turning bearish for the first time since 2016.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 27

The market climbed a bit higher today but again, the close is under the TA and the set up favors downside in the next few sessions. It will take a miracle to reverse the damage and the only thing I can think of would be a resolution to the trade war with China. Personally, I think more tariffs are coming plus a recession in the next year or two so I doubt the trade issue will be resolved at all. You can't force others to buy more from you if you don't have anything they want to buy. The only thing you can do is import less, which is what tariffs can do. In the end, the winners will be the ones that have been patiently waiting for a bear market for all these years.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 26

Prices staged a strong come back today but the market remains bearish biased. If the count posted is correct then we should see a stronger sell-off in the next few sessions to lower lows.

Hope everyone had a good holiday weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 21

The market staged a counter-rally today that mostly faded by the end of the session. The lack of strength in the bounce shows lack of bullish confidence and Friday could get ugly if the count posted is correct. Prices are trading well below the main moving averages and a death cross will be imminent if the sell-off continues in the next few sessions.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 19

"The pattern points to a potential sell-off next week "

The market lost substantial ground today and if 2670 is breached then it has the potential to go much lower. That will also confirm the likelihood of a bearish W3 and a test of the October low at 2603. A death cross is likely in the next couple of weeks unless the bearish pattern place is reversed.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 16

The market rose to test the TA early in the morning before giving up some of its gains. The pattern points to a potential sell-off next week if today's high at 2746 holds any more upside. If prices rally past resistance then bulls will have some breathing room but for now the market has a bearish set up with substantial downside.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 15

The market posted a decent bounce today but remains bearish biased. Prices would have to rally all the way to 2815 to reverse the bearish pattern in place. Maybe we will see increased volatility ahead?

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 14

The market has made a lower low and most importantly, broke support at 2700 and is now bearish biased again. Also, looking at where the 50 DMA and 200 DMA are, it is highly likely a death crossover will happen in the next week or two unless bulls are able to pull a miracle and recapture the 200 DMA at 2760. If Trump is able to agree on something with China then maybe we might see a year-end really but given the fact that China is not flexible, bad news on tariffs could be used as the catalyst to send prices much lower.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 12

The market continued its drop today and the potential bullish 5-count has been invalidated. The close was just below the Trend Average and nothing short of a strong rebound will save the trend from turning bearish again in the next few days. It's hard to tell what the count is now due to all the recent volatility but the market is looking tired and continued trade below 2763 will bring a death cross in the next few weeks.

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking