Monday, July 28, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 28

The market had a bearish open but found support at the 1965 level and ended up the day closing right on the Trend Average and at resistance, so tomorrow we could see the start of a sell off if the market has indeed found some sort of top. If the market manages to break resistance, chances are the all time high will be challenged. There are headlines around calling for the start of a correction, which is needed for substantially higher highs to come. But with some markets breaking out, most notably China, any correction at this point will probably not retrace all that much. Maybe in the 5-10% range?

Also, I wanted to add that I have not posted an Intermediate or Long Term count recently because waves are not very clear. One could argue the market continues to be in a Primary 3rd wave or the final 5th wave of the structure that started in October 2011 at 1074. If you are fortunate enough to have been long since 2009. the best thing to do is follow the trend signals primarily and wave counts second. Long Term Elliott Wave counts can form a bias (specially if trend signals are ignored) that can be disastrous if you find yourself on the wrong side of the trend. To illustrate my point, just take a look at the infamous count from Elliott Wave International in 2010. Which at that point almost every single EW person was following and trading.

Anyone who traded that Long Term count expecting the DOW to go to 400 this year got basically wiped out completely. However, if one takes the trend into account and puts aside all the personal biases as I did back then, the expectation and expected results could not have been further apart.

Trend is your friend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit

Short Term Trend = Bullish Trend being Challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics

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