Monday, June 9, 2014

Stock Market Update - June 9

The market made it to the micro-count target and this could be a potential top. I think there are enough waves to call a correction to the Trend Average. There is the possibility of a small H&S formation with today's low (1947) marking the neckline, so we'll see tomorrow if a lower low is made or if we get a rally to form the Head of the H&S. I hope the market will finally start a decent correction, specially since I am short now. There's a common notion that the market is able to price assets in advance but I think it has gotten ahead of itself at this point. IMO, the shorter term market is ruled by speculators who tend to miss-price assets more often than not, so it's not as "smart" as some people think it is. People who have made the most money are the ones who have been able to identify the "true" value of assets and acted during market extremes. Most of you guys remember a few weeks ago I was day trading a pharma stock trying to catch some pennies here and there. To my shock, this pharma stock which I bought and sold in lots of 10,000 shares at $5 less than a month ago, was bought out today by Merck for $24.50.. Had Merck decided to make the announcement when I had these shares on hand just few weeks ago, I would have made $200,000 overnight! Argghh.. so my point is, had the market been "smart", this stock would not have traded so far below the value that it was assigned today, which I am sure is close to its intrinsic value since it is being bought out by Merck and not some Facebook like company. So should the S&P500 be at 1,950 today? probably not (as I think it's overbought and overvalued) and some day it might just go back to its true value, I just hope we're lucky enough to make money from it.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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