Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Summer Correction or Rally?

The SP500 finally reached an all time high and confirmed what I had been speculating since last month;

Thursday - April 10th

"The ideal target for the C wave is 1812 (which implies a correction and a resumption of the bullish trend)"

- The market bottomed at 1814

Friday - April 11th

"However, a counter rally that reaches 1872 will be setting up the market for the resumption of the bullish trend and consequently new all time highs."

But now that we have an all time high things can get interesting in the next few weeks. If we go by wave count alone, if 1859-89 was W1 then I expect 1935 more or less for the completion of this particular structure. At that point we could see the start of a summer correction, which we seem to get almost every year in May. Also, there will be a multi-month megaphone pattern which makes the correction almost too predictable. Now, the big IF question is what if the wave from 1737-1897 was a W1. If that is the case, we will not get a summer correction but rather a very strong summer rally where we see the market rally to 2130 before really taking a break. That might sound crazy to some but who would have guessed less than 2 years ago the market would be at 1900? remember back then the talk was about a bearish "Primary 3" to 300-400 that managed to ruin a good number of orthodox Elliott Wave followers who were short with all they had against the trend. So I won't be surprised if the market gets there as I expect the unexpected from this euphoric market. I welcome whatever the market decides to do as the Trend Average will keep us on the right side of the trade.

I am keeping my positions but position trading VXX if we get a TA test (would imply the micro count has topped). Tomorrow I will do the first wave analysis to the NASDAQ, RUT, DJI, Oil, Gold and Silver on the new site http://www.ewaveanalytics.com 

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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