Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Ending Diagonal Confirmation

The market hit a brick wall at 1597 and the Ending Diagonal (Rising Wedge) was confirmed with the bearish reversal. But now that it looks like structure seems to be complete, I can add labels to the waves and figure out where I think the market is. I have the wave from 1536 to 1597 as W1 of W5, so I am expecting a Fib retracement and a continued rally in the next week or so. Should the market break key resistance levels such as 1552, I will start looking into other options. I am aware that some are calling 1597 "the top", while others are calling for an Int W4 correction. But I have to assume the most bullish count until the Trend Average gives the signal. As it is, the market failed to even test the TA on the last correction. So we'll see how the TA holds on this/next bearish wave.

I continue to be on the sidelines on my margin account. But now that 1597 is marked, I will be buying VXX on the bounce and using that as the stop. So hopefully it will bounce tomorrow, unless there is bearish nested 1-2, in which case I'll have to wait some more.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish 

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