Wednesday, February 13, 2013

No bears on sight




















The market continued its slow sideways rise today by making another high. Now that the market is 3% away from the all time high, I have very little doubt a new high will be put in sooner or later this year. But for now, this very persistent bullish wave just refuses to correct. The best chances for a correction came in last week where there was a potential Bearish Engulfing pattern but that was reversed the next day. And today's action negates the potential bearish signal form yesterday. Looking at waves, it does look like a W4 was put in today on the micro count so the W5 might just start tomorrow and target the completion of the Inverse Head and Shoulders around 1535. I took back the VXX position yesterday but I will set it at break even should the market rise as chances are it will be in the $21s if the market makes it to 1535. It's been a frustrating hedge I must admit as one has to be very accurate with volatility ETFs but I am thinking at the end of this 5th waves there SHOULD be a substantial correction. I need my FXIs at < $38!! Lol..



Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio
  • 60% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 
  • Bought 2000 VXX @22.38 on 02/12/13
  • Bought 800 VXX @23.70 and 1700 SPXU@ 31.68
  • Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
  • Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
  • Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
  • Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
  • Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
  • Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
  • Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
  • Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
  • Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
  • Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.
Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*
* Margin position is usually $15-20k
* Position in gold is $4k

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