Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Almost done.. for now.




















"I don't believe in counts above intermediate degrees. So this is the count for the rest of the year and perhaps into 2013. We are headed to 1510+"

I first mentioned the 1510 target almost a year ago and today the market reached it for all intent and purposes. If you look at that post from last year, I came up with that count based on what I saw on the main trends and applied a possible intermediate count. Which ultimately morphed into something else but pretty much traded on the ranges I mentioned. Now that we are at 1510, I am expecting more upside. Actually, a lot more upside as long as the trends remain positive and the economies around the world continue to expand. So I will draw another intermediate chart soon so you guys can see what I see as a possible path for the next few months. Just like last year, many "experts" are predicting the top for the year and that included the likes of Marc Faber (who just loves to alarm people), Doug Kass, Prechter (who calls a top every other week), etc. And  while they might actually turn out to be right, if I started predicting an earthquake in California every week I would eventually be right. So the bottom line is, aside from normal and expected market corrections, the market is bullish and all trends point to significant upside at this point. And btw HSI reached the 23,800 level I had been expecting.. in fact it is almost at 24,000 right now.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio
  • 80% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 
  • Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.68 to position trade on 01/25/2013
  • Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
  • Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
  • Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
  • Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
  • Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
  • Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
  • Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
  • Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
  • Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.
Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*
* Margin position is usually $15-20k
* Margin position in gold is $4k

Retirement Goal 
As of 01/02/2013 - 13.5%*
* Percentage gain for total liquid portfolio that started in September 2012, Goal is to double portfolio for retirement by September 2015, with 100% being the ideal retirement level.

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