Wednesday, October 10, 2012

50 Day MA Test?

The market continued its sell off today and now we have a confirmed bearish short term trend. Also, the picture looks a lot more clear with the waves are impulsing so I made some changes to the count and I am expecting a test of the 50 day MA in the cash market or in pre-market. Few weeks ago when I announced we had seen a likely top, I called for a test of the 50 day MA. But the initial corrective wave was so choppy, that it seemed like the market was ready to rally back to a new high (which the DOW did but not the SP500). But now it looks like we are in the "C" leg of a correction and if C=A, then we would test the 50 day MA in the 1420's. The 1430 level I mentioned yesterday served as the low for the day and perhaps it will continue to hold as a bearish W3 low. But it seems like there is on more leg down before seeing the start of a "real" rally.

I will be adding some hedges on the bounce but I'll also be careful not to get caught in a violent rally that will likely happen should the market not take a break from selling here.

Long Term Portfolio: 100% Long
Short Term Trading Strategy: Closed VXX @8.98 as of 10/01 at break even. Re-hedging if market loses TA support.

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