Friday, June 29, 2012

Intermediate trend change looks imminent

It is almost like the market read my post yesterday... The market started one of the strongest bullish W3s this year and flew by the trend average, the 13 day EMA and the 50 day MA without blinking an eye. I know the excuse for the rally is not all that convincing (allowing Spanish and Italian banks to borrow from the fund) but to me what really drives the markets long term is investor sentiment and not these types of news. To put things into perspective and not get sidetracked by all the "noise", catastrophic wave counts and predictions. This correction that started in April is now almost 3 months old and in all this time the bearish advance has been a total of 60 points!.. 1422-1362. The bullish wave preceding it was 4 months old and advanced 264 points 1160-1422. During this correction the market dipped below the 200 day MA just for a day before bouncing bank, signaling investors were waiting for a 200 day test to jump in. Unlike last year where the market sold off hard after the 200 day MA was lost. And unless the market starts trading under 200 day MA, my assumption is that the market is going up. I am aware of bearish wave counts targeting 1200, 1100, sub-1000, etc. but at this point trends don't support that. If anything, we're more likely to see new highs fairly soon once the intermediate trend turns bullish (which should be sometime next week if the 1340 level holds).

Have a great weekend!

1 comment:

  1. Thanks again for sharing. We need to keep an eye on the 1410ish area. Have a wonderful relaxing weekend