Monday, May 21, 2012


The market rallied as I predicted last week and what we saw today should be the W1 of whatever wave is coming. Keep in mind that a rally to 1510+ can happen at this time, however the market could be putting in a complex correction and in that case the market would trade in a range for few weeks or even months before breaking out to the 1510 target. So while it is ideal to think of this new rally as the beginning of the 5th minor leg, it is still too premature to assume so. Also, I wanted to address the overlapping of the W4 to W1 intermediary waves. Going by orthodox wave theory (which I don't really practice), the market bottoming at a fraction before 1292 invalidates the 5 wave count. However, the stock market is made of a multitude of stocks which include leaders and laggards. So while the SPX gets invalidated, you still have the Nasdaq and the Industrials which have not. So for me to trash the count, I would have to see either W4 minor going into W1 minor or invalidation of all 3 indexes. Furthermore, I have seen several times how technically invalidated waves still see a 5 wave impulse structures. So using wave theory as a guide is great but I am flexible with its use. Where I am not flexible at all is with the moving average and the trend average. As of today the TA is at 1330, 62 points less than when the signal was given.. the trade is with the trend, waves serve as a general evolving road map only.

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