Wednesday, April 25, 2012

ABC or beginning of an impulse?

I posted yesterday that the market was ready to challenge 1387 and the market did just that today, in fact in even closed above it. So the bullish wave comes as no surprise at all, what we have to figure out as traders is whether this is part of a correction or the beginning of a bullish wave. Since I am all about trends and averages, I will point out that the Trend Average continues to trade below the 50 day MA which is bearish and point to a correction. The Trend Average itself sits at 1377, so the coming bearish wave should be telling. In order for this to be an ABC correction, we need to see not a test of the TA but a strong bearish wave breaking decisively. If the market manages to find support at the TA then I'll expect a bullish wave 35-40 points above the TA and thus breaking the 1387-1393 resistance level. But at the moment, aside from the bearish trend, there is also the bear flag which is intact so odds favor the downside as long as the market reverses its gains in the next session or two.

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