Thursday, March 1, 2012


Today I decided to post the longer term chart that I follow. The market continues to grind higher and this is the longest run I've seen since I started tracking trend changes. Notice how this market technically became overbought when the daily RSI hit 70 back in mid January(this is the reason why one can not count on oscillators alone) and it has been stuck there ever since. And while the market can get stuck in this mode some more, the price advance is occurring in this rising wedge that has a high probability of collapsing in an abrupt manner, similar to the way gold collapsed yesterday where an entire month's worth of gains were wiped out in one trading session. So while I now favor higher highs for the year for the market, I think the market shows we are at the end of a W3 and it should be a matter of days and not weeks before seeing some healthy selling.

I am keeping my positions intact and waiting patiently on being right on the top.

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