Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Top is in if 1215 holds

The market managed to put in another bullish leg defying its overbought condition. However, like I said yesterday the market is ripe for a correction/sell off at this point. And this leg has gave me an idea of start applying the TA system at the minute/hour level to call tops or bottoms. Obviously, a fast moving average is prone to get whipsawed more often but I think the gains out weight the loses so from today I will be tracking these minute averages as well. For one, I would not have exited my margin long nor hedged when I did had I followed these minute averages. What prompted me to take profit early on were traditional technical analysis tools and the wave structure. But the more I do this, the more I am convinced the answer lies in the average. At 1141, when the signal first gave the buy signal, all indicators were already flashing overbought. But the TA signal has been very right since I first started using it and I am hoping with these faster averages I will have the answer to critical topping and bottoming levels in the market.

So from today on I will post the "Fast TA" on the right and the level to watch. As of the close, the FTA signal went bearish at 1215 so market closes on a minute basis lasting longer than 10 minutes will signal a change of the FTA to the bullish side. If the market respect this level, it will signal the top is in.

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